Research campaign · Iteration 1 · unassessed
RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning: inferred proxy campaign
Can the incomplete RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning concept yield a transparent causal exploratory proxy campaign from the longest defensible offline public history without claiming native source fidelity?
- Expressions
- 4
- Logged trials
- Not recorded
- Independent events
- Not assessed
- Evidence
- unassessed
What the research found
The source-backed result is a warning concept only: native WLEI/WLEI Diffusion observations, exact historical rank construction, release lag, threshold, state machine, and buy/sell action are not disclosed in the selected snapshot.
Best-effort exploration used the longest checked-in public proxy history (FRED INDPRO, 1919-01 through 2026-06) and executed four labeled second-difference variants on actual SPY/IEF overlap.
All causal proxy overlays underperformed buy-and-hold SPY cumulatively; three lag-1 variants reduced descriptive drawdown, while the lag-2 stricter variant did not. These are exploratory results, not native fidelity or promotion evidence.
Regime, event, combination, and timing diagnostics are retained in linked artifacts, including negative and parameter-sensitive outcomes.
Mechanism and falsifiers
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Confidence and limitations
Native WLEI, WLEI Diffusion, ECRI WLI, and source-linked chart observations are absent; INDPRO is a transparent similar proxy, not an equivalent series.
The exact historical rank window, denominator, tie/date behavior, threshold, smoothing, persistence, divergence tolerance, and missing-value semantics are undisclosed.
No native buy/sell/hold, universe, target weight, rebalance, holding, exit, re-entry, cost, or slippage rule is disclosed.
Underlying weekly release calendar, publication timestamp, timezone, point-in-time cutoff, vintage, and revision policy are unknown; archive delay is not publication lag.
Market outcomes use actual SPY/IEF history and cannot extend to the full 1919 macro span; metrics are descriptive and proxy-based.
Unlinked RecessionAlert XLSX assets, adjacent WLEI pages, and live sources are not substituted for this distinct row.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Compare expressions
Download evidenceExploratory results. Check each period, proxy and cost assumption before comparing. — means not recorded.
| Expression / family | CAGR | Sharpe | Max drawdown | Test period | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1wlei second difference | — | — | -44.1% | Not recorded |
exploratory |
| wlei-proxy-lb12-lag1-t0-h1wlei second difference | — | — | -44.6% | Not recorded |
exploratory |
| wlei-proxy-lb21-lag1-t0-h1wlei second difference | — | — | -43.7% | Not recorded |
exploratory |
| wlei-proxy-lb12-lag2-tm05-h3wlei second difference | — | — | -50.8% | Not recorded |
exploratory |
Open an expression to inspect its rules and request confirmation. The request must be submitted by a trusted repository collaborator.
wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1
- variant id
wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1
- family id
wlei_second_difference
- parameters
- lookback
6
- threshold
0.0
- lag bars
1
- holding months
1
- created by
inferred_best_guess
- reason tested
Shortest helper-grid lookback with primary one-bar causal lag.
- status
exploratory
- tags
structurally_interesting
candidate_for_confirmation
wlei-proxy-lb12-lag1-t0-h1
- variant id
wlei-proxy-lb12-lag1-t0-h1
- family id
wlei_second_difference
- parameters
- lookback
12
- threshold
0.0
- lag bars
1
- holding months
1
- created by
inferred_nearby_variant
- reason tested
Middle lookback neighbor with primary one-bar causal lag.
- status
exploratory
- tags
interesting_negative_result
candidate_for_confirmation
wlei-proxy-lb21-lag1-t0-h1
- variant id
wlei-proxy-lb21-lag1-t0-h1
- family id
wlei_second_difference
- parameters
- lookback
21
- threshold
0.0
- lag bars
1
- holding months
1
- created by
inferred_nearby_variant
- reason tested
Longer diffusion-style lookback neighbor.
- status
exploratory
- tags
interesting_negative_result
parameter_sensitive
wlei-proxy-lb12-lag2-tm05-h3
- variant id
wlei-proxy-lb12-lag2-tm05-h3
- family id
wlei_second_difference
- parameters
- lookback
12
- threshold
-0.5
- lag bars
2
- holding months
3
- created by
inferred_nearby_variant
- reason tested
Stricter threshold, extra causal lag, and longer holding neighbor.
- status
exploratory
- tags
interesting_negative_result
parameter_sensitive
needs_more_research
Interactive lab
402 observationsLoading available evidence…
Research record
Source claims, inferred rules, experiments and the evidence behind the assessment.
Source
- kind
RecessionAlert inventory row
- title
2nd derivative of WLEI posts warning | RecessionAlert
- sha256
sha256:9a47b636c5273dbe77dc525e0fdaafc9e1e0d8927ea71d86b3f7b23fa3a663a2
- fetched at
2026-08-22T23:46:05Z
- published at
2018-11-16T10:35:28-0500
- content length
80946
- native span
single dated HTML article snapshot; no source-linked WLEI observation span
- publication lag
underlying WLEI/WLEI Diffusion/ECRI WLI publication lag unknown; archive delay is not economic lag
- inventory path
research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md
- manifest path
research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json
- database path
data/recessionalert.sqlite
What the source claims
The article describes RecessionAlert WLEI as essentially a first-derivative/rate-of-change indicator and says its second derivative can be represented by the historical percentage of WLEI readings above the current reading.
The article interprets the concept as WLEI Diffusion, says divergence has historically been followed by Diffusion catch-up, and frames ECRI WLI as a possible first warning and WLEI as a second warning.
The article supplies no source-linked observation history, rank window, denominator, numeric threshold, persistence/state transition, buy/sell/hold mapping, portfolio universe, target weight, exit, or point-in-time release policy.
Because native WLEI data are absent, FRED INDPRO is used as a longest-history public macro proxy; the rolling historical-rank second difference is an explicitly inferred reconstruction.
SPY risk-on versus IEF risk-off overlays, lag/lookback/threshold/holding choices, and UNRATE/curve diagnostic combinations are exploratory extensions, not disclosed RecessionAlert rules.
Rules actually disclosed
The article describes RecessionAlert WLEI as essentially a first-derivative/rate-of-change indicator and says its second derivative can be represented by the historical percentage of WLEI readings above the current reading.
The article interprets the concept as WLEI Diffusion, says divergence has historically been followed by Diffusion catch-up, and frames ECRI WLI as a possible first warning and WLEI as a second warning.
The article supplies no source-linked observation history, rank window, denominator, numeric threshold, persistence/state transition, buy/sell/hold mapping, portfolio universe, target weight, exit, or point-in-time release policy.
What had to be inferred
Because native WLEI data are absent, FRED INDPRO is used as a longest-history public macro proxy; the rolling historical-rank second difference is an explicitly inferred reconstruction.
SPY risk-on versus IEF risk-off overlays, lag/lookback/threshold/holding choices, and UNRATE/curve diagnostic combinations are exploratory extensions, not disclosed RecessionAlert rules.
Research questions
Can the incomplete RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning concept yield a transparent causal exploratory proxy campaign from the longest defensible offline public history without claiming native source fidelity?
Data
- canonical snapshot
data/recessionalert.sqlite pages row for https://recessionalert.com/2nd-derivative-of-wli-posts-warning/
- canonical sha256
sha256:9a47b636c5273dbe77dc525e0fdaafc9e1e0d8927ea71d86b3f7b23fa3a663a2
- proxy data
data/market.sqlite read-only FRED INDPRO and Yahoo SPY/IEF snapshots
- native spans
WLEI/WLEI Diffusion/ECRI WLI unavailable; INDPRO 1919-01/2026-06; SPY/IEF outcome overlap 2002-08/2026-06
- publication lag
Official source publication lag unknown; primary proxy overlays use one available monthly bar lag and exclude unavailable warm-up states.
- revision policy
Checked-in FRED/Yahoo vintages are used without live refresh; public outputs record source metadata and derived metrics only.
- redistribution
Derived proxy values, metrics, hashes, spans, and causal assumptions only; cached source HTML/chart/workbook bytes are not published.
Baseline implementation
- variant id
wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1
- family id
wlei_second_difference
- parameters
- lookback
6
- threshold
0.0
- lag bars
1
- holding months
1
- created by
inferred_best_guess
- reason tested
Shortest helper-grid lookback with primary one-bar causal lag.
- status
exploratory
- metrics
- cumulative return
7.21063
- benchmark cumulative return
11.69295
- max drawdown
-0.441023
- benchmark max drawdown
-0.507848
- risk off rate
0.400697
- tags
structurally_interesting
candidate_for_confirmation
What to try interactively
- name
lookback
- type
integer
- default
6
- options
6
12
21
- name
threshold
- type
float
- default
0.0
- name
lag_bars
- type
integer
- default
1
- options
0
1
2
- name
holding_period
- type
integer
- default
1
- options
1
3
- name
overlay
- type
enum
- default
SPY_vs_IEF
- options
warning_only
SPY_vs_IEF
Suggested next research
Can an authorized source-linked weekly WLEI/WLEI Diffusion history and chart payload be obtained for this exact row?
What rank window, denominator, tie convention, threshold, persistence, and divergence tolerance were used?
What are the point-in-time WLEI release timestamps, publication lag, and vintage/revision policy?
Is the warning attention-only, or is there a source-backed buy/sell/hold and portfolio mapping?
Would a constituent rebuild be defensible if WLEI definitions and historical vintages become available?
Do longer independent market/recession outcome windows preserve the proxy drawdown tradeoff?
Trial ledger
- iteration number
1
- objective
offline best-effort proxy exploration, diagnostics, and public synthesis
Next questions
Can an authorized source-linked weekly WLEI/WLEI Diffusion history and chart payload be obtained for this exact row?
What rank window, denominator, tie convention, threshold, persistence, and divergence tolerance were used?
What are the point-in-time WLEI release timestamps, publication lag, and vintage/revision policy?
Is the warning attention-only, or is there a source-backed buy/sell/hold and portfolio mapping?
Would a constituent rebuild be defensible if WLEI definitions and historical vintages become available?
Do longer independent market/recession outcome windows preserve the proxy drawdown tradeoff?
Review status
published. Research publication does not imply official admission.
Return to pending research