Correlation
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Quantmodel · Macro
PPI leading core CPI
WPSFD49207 finished-goods PPI inflation overlaid with core CPI inflation six months later.
Aligned relationship
Aligned months
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PPI history
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Core CPI history
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Year-over-year inflation, six-month lead alignment
Each x-axis month is the PPI observation month t. The orange line is core CPI at t + 6 months, so peaks and troughs can be compared visually at the lead Danny discussed.
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PPI Final Demand: Finished Goods YoYCore CPI YoY at t+6m
Latest aligned observations
| PPI month | Core CPI month | PPI YoY | Core CPI YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
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Series and caveats
WPSFD49207 is the seasonally adjusted BLS/FRED Final Demand: Finished Goods series, used here as the long-history goods-side proxy. Core CPI is CPILFESL, all items less food and energy. Both are converted to year-over-year percentage changes before alignment.
This visualization shifts the target CPI series six months earlier for comparison; it does not imply that future CPI is known at the PPI observation date. The payload is regenerated from the local macro datastore whenever the standard market-data refresh updates either input.
Sources: FRED WPSFD49207 · FRED CPILFESL · BLS Producer Price Index · BLS Consumer Price Index