{ "article": { "official_admission": false, "required_headings": [ "Summary", "Source", "What the source claims", "Rules actually disclosed", "What had to be inferred", "Research questions", "Data", "Baseline implementation", "What the signal looks like", "Historical events", "State-space exploration", "Parameter sensitivity", "What worked", "What did not work", "Why the failures appear to happen", "Regime behavior", "Timing and cost sensitivity", "Combinations", "Candidate frontier", "Agent assessment", "Limitations", "What to try interactively", "Suggested next research", "Promotion status", "Trial ledger", "Validation protocol", "Portfolio contribution" ], "research_tags": [ "data_limited", "fidelity_mismatch", "interesting_negative_result", "needs_more_research", "parameter_sensitive", "regime_dependent", "candidate_for_confirmation", "predictive_not_tradable", "useful_as_portfolio_overlay" ], "sections": { "Baseline implementation": { "created_by": "inferred_best_guess", "family_id": "wlei_second_difference", "metrics": { "benchmark_cumulative_return": 11.69295, "benchmark_max_drawdown": -0.507848, "cumulative_return": 7.21063, "max_drawdown": -0.441023, "risk_off_rate": 0.400697 }, "parameters": { "holding_months": 1, "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 6, "threshold": 0.0 }, "reason_tested": "Shortest helper-grid lookback with primary one-bar causal lag.", "status": "exploratory", "tags": [ "structurally_interesting", "candidate_for_confirmation" ], "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1" }, "Candidate frontier": [ { "category": "lowest_drawdown", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Best descriptive drawdown among tested lag-1 one-month variants; no native source fidelity claimed.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "category": "simplest_reasonable", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Transparent middle-lookback reconstruction with primary causal lag.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb12-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "category": "best_long_history", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Uses the same longest INDPRO history with a slower diffusion-style lookback.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb21-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "category": "best_portfolio_complement", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Retained stricter/slow timing neighbor despite no drawdown improvement; useful as a negative portfolio-complement result.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb12-lag2-tm05-h3" } ], "Data": { "canonical_sha256": "sha256:9a47b636c5273dbe77dc525e0fdaafc9e1e0d8927ea71d86b3f7b23fa3a663a2", "canonical_snapshot": "data/recessionalert.sqlite pages row for https://recessionalert.com/2nd-derivative-of-wli-posts-warning/", "native_spans": "WLEI/WLEI Diffusion/ECRI WLI unavailable; INDPRO 1919-01/2026-06; SPY/IEF outcome overlap 2002-08/2026-06", "proxy_data": "data/market.sqlite read-only FRED INDPRO and Yahoo SPY/IEF snapshots", "publication_lag": "Official source publication lag unknown; primary proxy overlays use one available monthly bar lag and exclude unavailable warm-up states.", "redistribution": "Derived proxy values, metrics, hashes, spans, and causal assumptions only; cached source HTML/chart/workbook bytes are not published.", "revision_policy": "Checked-in FRED/Yahoo vintages are used without live refresh; public outputs record source metadata and derived metrics only." }, "Limitations": [ "Native WLEI, WLEI Diffusion, ECRI WLI, and source-linked chart observations are absent; INDPRO is a transparent similar proxy, not an equivalent series.", "The exact historical rank window, denominator, tie/date behavior, threshold, smoothing, persistence, divergence tolerance, and missing-value semantics are undisclosed.", "No native buy/sell/hold, universe, target weight, rebalance, holding, exit, re-entry, cost, or slippage rule is disclosed.", "Underlying weekly release calendar, publication timestamp, timezone, point-in-time cutoff, vintage, and revision policy are unknown; archive delay is not publication lag.", "Market outcomes use actual SPY/IEF history and cannot extend to the full 1919 macro span; metrics are descriptive and proxy-based.", "Unlinked RecessionAlert XLSX assets, adjacent WLEI pages, and live sources are not substituted for this distinct row." ], "Portfolio contribution": {}, "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.", "Research questions": [ "Can the incomplete RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning concept yield a transparent causal exploratory proxy campaign from the longest defensible offline public history without claiming native source fidelity?" ], "Rules actually disclosed": [ "The article describes RecessionAlert WLEI as essentially a first-derivative/rate-of-change indicator and says its second derivative can be represented by the historical percentage of WLEI readings above the current reading.", "The article interprets the concept as WLEI Diffusion, says divergence has historically been followed by Diffusion catch-up, and frames ECRI WLI as a possible first warning and WLEI as a second warning.", "The article supplies no source-linked observation history, rank window, denominator, numeric threshold, persistence/state transition, buy/sell/hold mapping, portfolio universe, target weight, exit, or point-in-time release policy." ], "Source": { "content_length": 80946, "database_path": "data/recessionalert.sqlite", "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:46:05Z", "inventory_path": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md", "kind": "RecessionAlert inventory row", "manifest_path": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json", "native_span": "single dated HTML article snapshot; no source-linked WLEI observation span", "publication_lag": "underlying WLEI/WLEI Diffusion/ECRI WLI publication lag unknown; archive delay is not economic lag", "published_at": "2018-11-16T10:35:28-0500", "redacted_url": "https://recessionalert.com/2nd-derivative-of-wli-posts-warning/", "sha256": "sha256:9a47b636c5273dbe77dc525e0fdaafc9e1e0d8927ea71d86b3f7b23fa3a663a2", "title": "2nd derivative of WLEI posts warning | RecessionAlert" }, "Suggested next research": [ "Can an authorized source-linked weekly WLEI/WLEI Diffusion history and chart payload be obtained for this exact row?", "What rank window, denominator, tie convention, threshold, persistence, and divergence tolerance were used?", "What are the point-in-time WLEI release timestamps, publication lag, and vintage/revision policy?", "Is the warning attention-only, or is there a source-backed buy/sell/hold and portfolio mapping?", "Would a constituent rebuild be defensible if WLEI definitions and historical vintages become available?", "Do longer independent market/recession outcome windows preserve the proxy drawdown tradeoff?" ], "Summary": [ "The source-backed result is a warning concept only: native WLEI/WLEI Diffusion observations, exact historical rank construction, release lag, threshold, state machine, and buy/sell action are not disclosed in the selected snapshot.", "Best-effort exploration used the longest checked-in public proxy history (FRED INDPRO, 1919-01 through 2026-06) and executed four labeled second-difference variants on actual SPY/IEF overlap.", "All causal proxy overlays underperformed buy-and-hold SPY cumulatively; three lag-1 variants reduced descriptive drawdown, while the lag-2 stricter variant did not. These are exploratory results, not native fidelity or promotion evidence.", "Regime, event, combination, and timing diagnostics are retained in linked artifacts, including negative and parameter-sensitive outcomes." ], "Trial ledger": [ { "iteration_number": 1, "objective": "offline best-effort proxy exploration, diagnostics, and public synthesis" } ], "Validation protocol": {}, "What had to be inferred": [ "Because native WLEI data are absent, FRED INDPRO is used as a longest-history public macro proxy; the rolling historical-rank second difference is an explicitly inferred reconstruction.", "SPY risk-on versus IEF risk-off overlays, lag/lookback/threshold/holding choices, and UNRATE/curve diagnostic combinations are exploratory extensions, not disclosed RecessionAlert rules." ], "What the source claims": [ "The article describes RecessionAlert WLEI as essentially a first-derivative/rate-of-change indicator and says its second derivative can be represented by the historical percentage of WLEI readings above the current reading.", "The article interprets the concept as WLEI Diffusion, says divergence has historically been followed by Diffusion catch-up, and frames ECRI WLI as a possible first warning and WLEI as a second warning.", "The article supplies no source-linked observation history, rank window, denominator, numeric threshold, persistence/state transition, buy/sell/hold mapping, portfolio universe, target weight, exit, or point-in-time release policy.", "Because native WLEI data are absent, FRED INDPRO is used as a longest-history public macro proxy; the rolling historical-rank second difference is an explicitly inferred reconstruction.", "SPY risk-on versus IEF risk-off overlays, lag/lookback/threshold/holding choices, and UNRATE/curve diagnostic combinations are exploratory extensions, not disclosed RecessionAlert rules." ], "What to try interactively": [ { "default": 6, "name": "lookback", "options": [ 6, 12, 21 ], "type": "integer" }, { "default": 0.0, "name": "threshold", "type": "float" }, { "default": 1, "name": "lag_bars", "options": [ 0, 1, 2 ], "type": "integer" }, { "default": 1, "name": "holding_period", "options": [ 1, 3 ], "type": "integer" }, { "default": "SPY_vs_IEF", "name": "overlay", "options": [ "warning_only", "SPY_vs_IEF" ], "type": "enum" } ] }, "title": "RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning: inferred proxy campaign" }, "campaign": { "campaign_id": "recessionalert-wlei-2nd-derivative", "iteration_number": 1, "research_tags": [ "data_limited", "fidelity_mismatch", "interesting_negative_result", "needs_more_research", "parameter_sensitive", "regime_dependent", "candidate_for_confirmation", "predictive_not_tradable", "useful_as_portfolio_overlay" ], "status": "published", "title": "RecessionAlert WLEI second-derivative warning: inferred proxy campaign" }, "candidate_frontier": [ { "category": "lowest_drawdown", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Best descriptive drawdown among tested lag-1 one-month variants; no native source fidelity claimed.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "category": "simplest_reasonable", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Transparent middle-lookback reconstruction with primary causal lag.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb12-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "category": "best_long_history", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Uses the same longest INDPRO history with a slower diffusion-style lookback.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb21-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "category": "best_portfolio_complement", "exploratory": true, "reason": "Retained stricter/slow timing neighbor despite no drawdown improvement; useful as a negative portfolio-complement result.", "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb12-lag2-tm05-h3" } ], "candidate_variants": [ { "created_by": "inferred_best_guess", "family_id": "wlei_second_difference", "metrics": { "benchmark_cumulative_return": 11.69295, "benchmark_max_drawdown": -0.507848, "cumulative_return": 7.21063, "max_drawdown": -0.441023, "risk_off_rate": 0.400697 }, "parameters": { "holding_months": 1, "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 6, "threshold": 0.0 }, "reason_tested": "Shortest helper-grid lookback with primary one-bar causal lag.", "status": "exploratory", "tags": [ "structurally_interesting", "candidate_for_confirmation" ], "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb6-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "created_by": "inferred_nearby_variant", "family_id": "wlei_second_difference", "metrics": { "benchmark_cumulative_return": 11.69295, "benchmark_max_drawdown": -0.507848, "cumulative_return": 5.355754, "max_drawdown": -0.446291, "risk_off_rate": 0.418118 }, "parameters": { "holding_months": 1, "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 12, "threshold": 0.0 }, "reason_tested": "Middle lookback neighbor with primary one-bar causal lag.", "status": "exploratory", "tags": [ "interesting_negative_result", "candidate_for_confirmation" ], "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb12-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "created_by": "inferred_nearby_variant", "family_id": "wlei_second_difference", "metrics": { "benchmark_cumulative_return": 11.69295, "benchmark_max_drawdown": -0.507848, "cumulative_return": 4.579662, "max_drawdown": -0.437244, "risk_off_rate": 0.452962 }, "parameters": { "holding_months": 1, "lag_bars": 1, "lookback": 21, "threshold": 0.0 }, "reason_tested": "Longer diffusion-style lookback neighbor.", "status": "exploratory", "tags": [ "interesting_negative_result", "parameter_sensitive" ], "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb21-lag1-t0-h1" }, { "created_by": "inferred_nearby_variant", "family_id": "wlei_second_difference", "metrics": { "benchmark_cumulative_return": 11.69295, "benchmark_max_drawdown": -0.507848, "cumulative_return": 5.334052, "max_drawdown": -0.507848, "risk_off_rate": 0.135889 }, "parameters": { "holding_months": 3, "lag_bars": 2, "lookback": 12, "threshold": -0.5 }, "reason_tested": "Stricter threshold, extra causal lag, and longer holding neighbor.", "status": "exploratory", "tags": [ "interesting_negative_result", "parameter_sensitive", "needs_more_research" ], "variant_id": "wlei-proxy-lb12-lag2-tm05-h3" } ], "event_tables": [], "evidence": {}, "execution_assumptions": {}, "interactive_specs": [ { "default": 6, "name": "lookback", "options": [ 6, 12, 21 ], "type": "integer" }, { "default": 0.0, "name": "threshold", "type": "float" }, { "default": 1, "name": "lag_bars", "options": [ 0, 1, 2 ], "type": "integer" }, { "default": 1, "name": "holding_period", "options": [ 1, 3 ], "type": "integer" }, { "default": "SPY_vs_IEF", "name": "overlay", "options": [ "warning_only", "SPY_vs_IEF" ], "type": "enum" } ], "limitations": [ "Native WLEI, WLEI Diffusion, ECRI WLI, and source-linked chart observations are absent; INDPRO is a transparent similar proxy, not an equivalent series.", "The exact historical rank window, denominator, tie/date behavior, threshold, smoothing, persistence, divergence tolerance, and missing-value semantics are undisclosed.", "No native buy/sell/hold, universe, target weight, rebalance, holding, exit, re-entry, cost, or slippage rule is disclosed.", "Underlying weekly release calendar, publication timestamp, timezone, point-in-time cutoff, vintage, and revision policy are unknown; archive delay is not publication lag.", "Market outcomes use actual SPY/IEF history and cannot extend to the full 1919 macro span; metrics are descriptive and proxy-based.", "Unlinked RecessionAlert XLSX assets, adjacent WLEI pages, and live sources are not substituted for this distinct row." ], "parameter_grids": [], "provenance": { "canonical_sha256": "sha256:9a47b636c5273dbe77dc525e0fdaafc9e1e0d8927ea71d86b3f7b23fa3a663a2", "canonical_snapshot": "data/recessionalert.sqlite pages row for https://recessionalert.com/2nd-derivative-of-wli-posts-warning/", "native_spans": "WLEI/WLEI Diffusion/ECRI WLI unavailable; INDPRO 1919-01/2026-06; SPY/IEF outcome overlap 2002-08/2026-06", "proxy_data": "data/market.sqlite read-only FRED INDPRO and Yahoo SPY/IEF snapshots", "publication_lag": "Official source publication lag unknown; primary proxy overlays use one available monthly bar lag and exclude unavailable warm-up states.", "redistribution": "Derived proxy values, metrics, hashes, spans, and causal assumptions only; cached source HTML/chart/workbook bytes are not published.", "revision_policy": "Checked-in FRED/Yahoo vintages are used without live refresh; public outputs record source metadata and derived metrics only." }, "regime_tables": [], "schema_version": "research-publication/v1", "series": { "INDPRO": [ 64.5978, 64.9089, 64.8522, 65.0301, 64.784, 64.9301, 65.1052, 65.0267, 65.3717, 65.8509, 66.1518, 66.5436, 66.7351, 66.774, 67.4552, 67.8541, 68.1663, 68.6265, 68.7178, 69.1785, 69.3961, 69.9544, 70.4326, 71.1523, 71.2734, 71.193, 71.3113, 71.1882, 71.5378, 71.7749, 71.4748, 72.4223, 72.7144, 72.5866, 72.7779, 73.0305, 72.6125, 73.6752, 73.585, 74.3172, 74.8726, 75.4433, 75.4549, 75.8411, 76.3158, 76.3384, 77.0397, 77.5333, 77.6562, 78.5833, 79.082, 79.1747, 79.6133, 79.9792, 80.6624, 81.4694, 82.2156, 82.9446, 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"2022-07-31", "2022-08-31", "2022-09-30", "2022-10-31", "2022-11-30", "2022-12-31", "2023-01-31", "2023-02-28", "2023-03-31", "2023-04-30", "2023-05-31", "2023-06-30", "2023-07-31", "2023-08-31", "2023-09-30", "2023-10-31", "2023-11-30", "2023-12-31", "2024-01-31", "2024-02-29", "2024-03-31", "2024-04-30", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-30", "2024-07-31", "2024-08-31", "2024-09-30", "2024-10-31", "2024-11-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-31", "2025-04-30", "2025-05-31", "2025-06-30", "2025-07-31", "2025-08-31", "2025-09-30", "2025-10-31", "2025-11-30", "2025-12-31", "2026-01-31", "2026-02-28", "2026-03-31", "2026-04-30", "2026-05-31", "2026-06-30" ], "frequency": "monthly", "provenance": { "canonical_recessionalert_wlei": "sha256:9a47b636c5273dbe77dc525e0fdaafc9e1e0d8927ea71d86b3f7b23fa3a663a2", "causal_policy": "Inputs are displayed for research; primary overlays use one or more available monthly bars of lag and no same-close execution.", "native_span": 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