Research campaign · Iteration 1 · unassessed

Market Top Warnings | RecessionAlert (exploratory proxies)

Can public breadth / new-high / vol / credit proxies extract a useful labeled market-top warning signal from the incomplete RecessionAlert Market Top Warnings page hints (HILO/HILO2/NEWHI and dashboard SELL batches)?

Expressions: 18
Logged trials: Not recorded
Independent events: Not assessed
Evidence: unassessed

What the research found

tag
useful_as_filter
text
Lag-1 NEWHI-style INDEX:HIGN z-score proxy shows competitive causal risk-adjusted returns among tested families.
tag
fidelity_mismatch
text
No variant claims native HILO/HILO2/NEWHI parity; all are labeled inferred/speculative.
tag
interesting_negative_result
text
Aggressive HILO multi-horizon weak-share overlays can stay defensive and underperform buy-and-hold; retained as tested negatives.
tag
needs_more_research
text
Publication lag and native traffic-light thresholds remain unknown.
tag
data_limited
text
Native observation series absent; INDEX:HIGN binds NEWHI families from 2001-06.

Mechanism and falsifiers

Not recorded in this iteration.

Confidence and limitations

Native HILO/HILO2/NEWHI series and formulas unavailable on this row
INDEX:HIGN is a public new-highs proxy, not RecessionAlert NEWHI
Publication lag unknown; lag>=1 enforced for causal claims
May 2020 SELL-batch membership undisclosed
Not a playable Other/Indicators listing

Not recorded in this iteration.

Compare expressions

Download evidence

Exploratory results. Check each period, proxy and cost assumption before comparing. — means not recorded.

Expression / family	CAGR	Sharpe	Max drawdown	Test period	Assessment
hilo_weak060_lag1hilo-multihorizon-regime	4.8%	0.42	-51.4%	Not recorded	exploratory
hilo_weak050_lag1hilo-multihorizon-regime	1.7%	0.21	-58.9%	Not recorded	exploratory
hilo_weak070_lag1hilo-multihorizon-regime	4.9%	0.42	-48.6%	Not recorded	exploratory
hilo_weak060_lag2hilo-multihorizon-regime	5.6%	0.47	-46.6%	Not recorded	exploratory
hilo_weak060_lag0_controlhilo-multihorizon-regime	88.0%	4.83	-5.5%	Not recorded	exploratory
hilo2_pending_lag1hilo2-short-horizon-pending	1.5%	0.19	-55.5%	Not recorded	exploratory
hilo2_pending_lag2hilo2-short-horizon-pending	3.2%	0.33	-44.0%	Not recorded	exploratory
hilo2_pending_confirm_lag1hilo2-short-horizon-pending	11.3%	0.68	-44.0%	Not recorded	exploratory
newhi_hign_z_lag1newhi-concentration-proxy	8.1%	0.61	-30.5%	Not recorded	exploratory
newhi_hign_z_lag2newhi-concentration-proxy	10.4%	0.79	-23.4%	Not recorded	exploratory
newhi_spy_dist_lag1newhi-concentration-proxy	7.8%	0.64	-19.3%	Not recorded	exploratory
vote2_lag1market-top-warning-vote	6.1%	0.48	-55.5%	Not recorded	exploratory
vote3_lag1market-top-warning-vote	7.2%	0.52	-48.9%	Not recorded	exploratory
vote2_lag2market-top-warning-vote	5.3%	0.42	-47.8%	Not recorded	exploratory
be_lb12_t0_lag1best-effort-neighbor-grid	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
be_lb21_t0_lag1best-effort-neighbor-grid	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
be_lb12_tm05_lag1best-effort-neighbor-grid	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
be_lb12_t0_lag0_controlbest-effort-neighbor-grid	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory

Open an expression to inspect its rules and request confirmation. The request must be submitted by a trusted repository collaborator.

hilo_weak060_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo-multihorizon-regime

hilo_weak060_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

hilo_weak050_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo-multihorizon-regime

hilo_weak050_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

hilo_weak070_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo-multihorizon-regime

hilo_weak070_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.7

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

hilo_weak060_lag2

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo-multihorizon-regime

hilo_weak060_lag2

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

hilo_weak060_lag0_control

claim kind

inferred

claim role

control_only

driver

SPY

family

hilo-multihorizon-regime

hilo_weak060_lag0_control

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

hilo2_pending_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo2-short-horizon-pending

hilo2_pending_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

hilo2_pending_lag2

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo2-short-horizon-pending

hilo2_pending_lag2

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

hilo2_pending_confirm_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo2-short-horizon-pending

hilo2_pending_confirm_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

newhi_hign_z_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

newhi-concentration-proxy

newhi_hign_z_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

-0.5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

newhi_hign_z_lag2

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

newhi-concentration-proxy

newhi_hign_z_lag2

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

-0.5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

newhi_spy_dist_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

newhi-concentration-proxy

newhi_spy_dist_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

-0.05

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

vote2_lag1

claim kind

speculative_extension

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

market-top-warning-vote

vote2_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

vote3_lag1

claim kind

speculative_extension

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

market-top-warning-vote

vote3_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

vote2_lag2

claim kind

speculative_extension

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

market-top-warning-vote

vote2_lag2

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

be_lb12_t0_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

best-effort-neighbor-grid

be_lb12_t0_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.0

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

be_lb21_t0_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

best-effort-neighbor-grid

be_lb21_t0_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.0

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

be_lb12_tm05_lag1

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

best-effort-neighbor-grid

be_lb12_tm05_lag1

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

-0.5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

be_lb12_t0_lag0_control

claim kind

inferred

claim role

control_only

driver

SPY

family

best-effort-neighbor-grid

be_lb12_t0_lag0_control

lag bars

lookback

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.0

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

Interactive lab

Interactive history unavailable

Loading available evidence…

Research record

Source claims, inferred rules, experiments and the evidence behind the assessment.

Source

fetched at: 2026-08-22T23:47:17Z
inventory class: indicator
kind: recessionalert_inventory_row
published at: 2020-05-14
rules status: enrichment_pending
sha256: sha256:2b25e8c05a00d909bf2430185cd5e6596b6ccd6ef70d1bb36e8f032f42eb6ade
url: https://recessionalert.com/market-top-warnings/

What the source claims

Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.

Rules actually disclosed

Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.

What had to be inferred

Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.
Not recorded in this iteration.

Research questions

Can public breadth / new-high / vol / credit proxies extract a useful labeled market-top warning signal from the incomplete RecessionAlert Market Top Warnings page hints (HILO/HILO2/NEWHI and dashboard SELL batches)?

Data

claim boundary: Inferred/speculative proxies only
database: data/market.sqlite (read-only proxies); data/recessionalert.sqlite (read-only snapshot)
network: not_used
source sha256: sha256:2b25e8c05a00d909bf2430185cd5e6596b6ccd6ef70d1bb36e8f032f42eb6ade
source url: https://recessionalert.com/market-top-warnings/

Baseline implementation

claim kind

inferred

claim role

causal_primary

driver

SPY

family

hilo-multihorizon-regime

hilo_weak060_lag1

lag bars

lookback

metrics

cagr: 0.04798105891319038
max drawdown: -0.5138071052579352
n days: 7508
risk off events: 1453
risk on share: 0.7195902688860435
sharpe: 0.4218640466921423
vol: 0.13172704694028411

span

end: 2026-07-24
note: family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families
start: 2001-06-05

threshold

0.6

What to try interactively

default
1
id
lag_bars
values
- 0
- 1
- 2
default
0.6
id
weak_share_threshold
values
- 0.5
- 0.6
- 0.7
default
2
id
vote_threshold
values
- 2
- 3
default
21
id
lookback
values
- 12
- 21
- 63

Suggested next research

Does the adjacent HILO breadth page disclose formulas that could be labeled separately without merging row identity?
Can NYSE new-high/new-low constituents rebuild a longer HILO-like series offline?
Would a dashboard multi-model corpus vote improve fidelity if other RA pages are authorized as inputs?

Trial ledger

iteration
1
note
Initial offline best-effort campaign for issue 1445.
status
published

Next questions

Does the adjacent HILO breadth page disclose formulas that could be labeled separately without merging row identity?
Can NYSE new-high/new-low constituents rebuild a longer HILO-like series offline?
Would a dashboard multi-model corpus vote improve fidelity if other RA pages are authorized as inputs?

Review status

published. Research publication does not imply official admission.

Return to pending research