{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "inferred",
        "claim_role": "causal_primary",
        "driver": "SPY",
        "family": "hilo-multihorizon-regime",
        "id": "hilo_weak060_lag1",
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 21,
        "metrics": {
          "cagr": 0.04798105891319038,
          "max_drawdown": -0.5138071052579352,
          "n_days": 7508,
          "risk_off_events": 1453,
          "risk_on_share": 0.7195902688860435,
          "sharpe": 0.4218640466921423,
          "vol": 0.13172704694028411
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        "span": {
          "end": "2026-07-24",
          "note": "family-dependent; HIGN binds NEWHI families",
          "start": "2001-06-05"
        },
        "threshold": 0.6
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "cagr": 0.10441430841125632,
          "category": "best_sharpe",
          "id": "newhi_hign_z_lag2",
          "interpretation": "Best lag>=1 Sharpe among tested proxies; not RA parity.",
          "sharpe": 0.7878105771092988
        },
        {
          "cagr": 0.1134213452469639,
          "category": "best_return",
          "id": "hilo2_pending_confirm_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Highest causal CAGR neighbor."
        },
        {
          "category": "lowest_drawdown",
          "id": "newhi_spy_dist_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Least severe max drawdown among causal variants (still exploratory).",
          "max_drawdown": -0.1931730266345092
        },
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "id": "hilo_weak060_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Closest conceptual tie to disclosed multi-horizon highs/lows importance."
        },
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "be_lb12_t0_lag1",
          "interpretation": "best_effort SMA neighbor with lag-1."
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "claim_boundary": "Inferred/speculative proxies only",
        "database": "data/market.sqlite (read-only proxies); data/recessionalert.sqlite (read-only snapshot)",
        "network": "not_used",
        "source_sha256": "sha256:2b25e8c05a00d909bf2430185cd5e6596b6ccd6ef70d1bb36e8f032f42eb6ade",
        "source_url": "https://recessionalert.com/market-top-warnings/"
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "Native HILO/HILO2/NEWHI series and formulas unavailable on this row",
        "INDEX:HIGN is a public new-highs proxy, not RecessionAlert NEWHI",
        "Publication lag unknown; lag>=1 enforced for causal claims",
        "May 2020 SELL-batch membership undisclosed",
        "Not a playable Other/Indicators listing"
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": "Not promoted \u2014 Research Library only.",
      "Research questions": [
        "Can public breadth / new-high / vol / credit proxies extract a useful labeled market-top warning signal from the incomplete RecessionAlert Market Top Warnings page hints (HILO/HILO2/NEWHI and dashboard SELL batches)?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "Source": {
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:47:17Z",
        "inventory_class": "indicator",
        "kind": "recessionalert_inventory_row",
        "published_at": "2020-05-14",
        "rules_status": "enrichment_pending",
        "sha256": "sha256:2b25e8c05a00d909bf2430185cd5e6596b6ccd6ef70d1bb36e8f032f42eb6ade",
        "url": "https://recessionalert.com/market-top-warnings/"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Does the adjacent HILO breadth page disclose formulas that could be labeled separately without merging row identity?",
        "Can NYSE new-high/new-low constituents rebuild a longer HILO-like series offline?",
        "Would a dashboard multi-model corpus vote improve fidelity if other RA pages are authorized as inputs?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        {
          "tag": "useful_as_filter",
          "text": "Lag-1 NEWHI-style INDEX:HIGN z-score proxy shows competitive causal risk-adjusted returns among tested families."
        },
        {
          "tag": "fidelity_mismatch",
          "text": "No variant claims native HILO/HILO2/NEWHI parity; all are labeled inferred/speculative."
        },
        {
          "tag": "interesting_negative_result",
          "text": "Aggressive HILO multi-horizon weak-share overlays can stay defensive and underperform buy-and-hold; retained as tested negatives."
        },
        {
          "tag": "needs_more_research",
          "text": "Publication lag and native traffic-light thresholds remain unknown."
        },
        {
          "tag": "data_limited",
          "text": "Native observation series absent; INDEX:HIGN binds NEWHI families from 2001-06."
        }
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration": 1,
          "note": "Initial offline best-effort campaign for issue 1445.",
          "status": "published"
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null,
        null
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
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          "default": 1,
          "id": "lag_bars",
          "values": [
            0,
            1,
            2
          ]
        },
        {
          "default": 0.6,
          "id": "weak_share_threshold",
          "values": [
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            0.7
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        },
        {
          "default": 2,
          "id": "vote_threshold",
          "values": [
            2,
            3
          ]
        },
        {
          "default": 21,
          "id": "lookback",
          "values": [
            12,
            21,
            63
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "Market Top Warnings | RecessionAlert (exploratory proxies)"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-market-top-warnings-1445",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "Market Top Warnings | RecessionAlert (exploratory proxies)"
  },
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    {
      "cagr": 0.1134213452469639,
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      "id": "hilo2_pending_confirm_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Highest causal CAGR neighbor."
    },
    {
      "category": "lowest_drawdown",
      "id": "newhi_spy_dist_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Least severe max drawdown among causal variants (still exploratory).",
      "max_drawdown": -0.1931730266345092
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    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "id": "hilo_weak060_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Closest conceptual tie to disclosed multi-horizon highs/lows importance."
    },
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "be_lb12_t0_lag1",
      "interpretation": "best_effort SMA neighbor with lag-1."
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  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
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  "limitations": [
    "Native HILO/HILO2/NEWHI series and formulas unavailable on this row",
    "INDEX:HIGN is a public new-highs proxy, not RecessionAlert NEWHI",
    "Publication lag unknown; lag>=1 enforced for causal claims",
    "May 2020 SELL-batch membership undisclosed",
    "Not a playable Other/Indicators listing"
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "claim_boundary": "Inferred/speculative proxies only",
    "database": "data/market.sqlite (read-only proxies); data/recessionalert.sqlite (read-only snapshot)",
    "network": "not_used",
    "source_sha256": "sha256:2b25e8c05a00d909bf2430185cd5e6596b6ccd6ef70d1bb36e8f032f42eb6ade",
    "source_url": "https://recessionalert.com/market-top-warnings/"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}