Research campaign · Iteration 1 · unassessed

RecessionAlert ALIX — inferred public-proxy campaign

Can the incomplete ALIX narrative yield transparent, causally timed exploratory public proxies over the longest checked-in history without claiming native source fidelity?

Expressions: 6
Logged trials: Not recorded
Independent events: Not assessed
Evidence: unassessed

What the research found

Six inferred public-proxy variants were executed on the common 2002-07 through 2026-07 monthly panel; the lag-1 12-month liquidity-level proxy is the declared descriptive baseline.
The fast-minus-slow spread, price-trend gate, equal-weight ensemble, threshold/lookback neighbor, and lag-0 sensitivity preserve nearby alternatives and negative or timing-sensitive results.
Proxy signals and equity curves are descriptive exploratory overlays; no result establishes native ALIX values, a buy/sell rule, or market-timing validity.

Mechanism and falsifiers

Not recorded in this iteration.

Confidence and limitations

The proprietary VMCOS/HILO/Net 13-week/Net 52-week observations and native ALIX history are unavailable in the checked-in snapshot.
The article's daily subscriber-print claim does not disclose calculation cutoff, release timestamp, timezone, vintage, late-input behavior, or revision schedule.
The source provides warning language but no executable action mapping, target, sizing, holding period, re-entry, costs, or slippage.
Public proxies are monthly analogues and do not establish native ALIX parity; lag-0 is research-only and lag-1 is the causal baseline.
Descriptive close-only metrics omit transaction costs and must not be read as market validation or an official catalog admission.

Not recorded in this iteration.

Compare expressions

Download evidence

Exploratory results. Check each period, proxy and cost assumption before comparing. — means not recorded.

Expression / family	CAGR	Sharpe	Max drawdown	Test period	Assessment
alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1level	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1spread	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1trend gate	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2ensemble	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
alix_proxy_level_lb6_tm05_lag2level	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag0_sensitivitylevel	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory

Open an expression to inspect its rules and request confirmation. The request must be submitted by a trusted repository collaborator.

alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1

id: alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1
family: level
lookback: 12
threshold: 0.0
lag bars: 1
claim kind: inferred
label: causal exploratory baseline

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1

id: alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1
family: spread
lookback: 12
threshold: 0.0
lag bars: 1
claim kind: inferred
label: fast-minus-slow component analogue

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1

id: alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1
family: trend_gate
lookback: 12
threshold: 0.0
lag bars: 1
claim kind: speculative_extension
label: price-trend breadth substitute

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2

id: alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2
family: ensemble
lookback: 21
threshold: 0.5
lag bars: 2
claim kind: speculative_extension
label: component-average robustness neighbor

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

alix_proxy_level_lb6_tm05_lag2

id: alix_proxy_level_lb6_tm05_lag2
family: level
lookback: 6
threshold: -0.5
lag bars: 2
claim kind: inferred
label: short-lookback threshold neighbor

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag0_sensitivity

id: alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag0_sensitivity
family: level
lookback: 12
threshold: 0.0
lag bars: 0
claim kind: inferred
label: research-only same-close sensitivity

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

Interactive lab

Interactive history unavailable

Loading available evidence…

Research record

Source claims, inferred rules, experiments and the evidence behind the assessment.

Source

title: The Average Liquidity Index (ALIX) | RecessionAlert
redacted url: https://recessionalert.com/alix/
sha256: sha256:9aae9dcf82b77c6195e2e586fc79ba20fe792093867ba4f30cec84f0120aca77
fetched at: 2026-08-22T23:46:53Z
article date: 2019-11-01
native span: One dated narrative article; the page claims daily subscriber prints and a 20-year download but supplies no source-linked numeric ALIX/VMCOS/HILO series.
publication lag: Unknown; article-to-crawl interval is archival delay, not a native indicator release lag.
public boundary: Summaries, hashes, metadata, and derived proxy metrics only; no cached HTML/assets, credentials, cookies, private data, or unverified native series.

What the source claims

The article describes ALIX as the average of EMA(21) VMCOS, EMA(10) less EMA(21) VMCOS, and EMA(10) less EMA(20) of Net 13-week less Net 52-week highs.
Short-term components below zero are described as early warnings; ALIX below zero is described as a likely volatility or sideways-movement warning, not a certainty of further decline.
The source claims daily subscriber ALIX prints and a downloadable 20-year history, but does not disclose calculation cutoff, release timestamp, timezone, vintage, or revision schedule.
The checked-in row has no source-linked VMCOS, HILO, Net 13-week, Net 52-week, or ALIX observations and no target-page asset rows.
The source supplies no complete buy, sell, hold, re-entry, target, sizing, or execution mapping.
This campaign tests labeled public analogues using NFCILEVERAGE, BAA10Y, SPY, and IEF; no proxy result is native ALIX evidence.

Rules actually disclosed

Three named EMA/breadth components are documented, with zero-line warning language only; no executable trade mapping is disclosed.

What had to be inferred

All six tested families are inferred public analogues and remain separate from the native ALIX source-fidelity record.

Research questions

Can the incomplete ALIX narrative yield transparent, causally timed exploratory public proxies over the longest checked-in history without claiming native source fidelity?

Data

source page sha256: sha256:9aae9dcf82b77c6195e2e586fc79ba20fe792093867ba4f30cec84f0120aca77
source page url: https://recessionalert.com/alix/
source fetched at: 2026-08-22T23:46:53Z
inventory path: research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md
manifest path: research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json
snapshot database: data/recessionalert.sqlite
proxy database: data/market.sqlite (read-only)
proxy series: NFCILEVERAGE
BAA10Y
SPY
IEF
common span: 2002-07-01/2026-07-01
publication lag: Unknown for native ALIX; proxy experiment uses monthly observations and one or two available-bar execution lags.
revision policy: Native ALIX revision/vintage policy is undisclosed; no source-linked observations are redistributed.
native fidelity: False
redistribution: Derived proxy values and summaries only; source bytes, credentials, cookies, private data, and unverified native series are excluded.

Baseline implementation

id: alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1
family: level
lookback: 12
threshold: 0.0
lag bars: 1
claim kind: inferred
label: causal exploratory baseline

What to try interactively

name
spec
type
enum
values
- alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1
- alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1
- alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1
- alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2
- alix_proxy_level_lb6_tm05_lag2
- alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag0_sensitivity
name
threshold
type
float
note
Inferred proxy threshold; not a documented native ALIX trade threshold.
name
holding_period
type
integer
values
- 10
- 20
- 40
note
Exploratory display control only.

Suggested next research

Can a separately authorized public export provide source-linked daily VMCOS, HILO, and ALIX observations with release metadata?
Does constituent Net 13-week versus Net 52-week breadth change the trend-gate proxy behavior?
What costs, turnover, point-in-time releases, and declared outcome horizon should be used before any proxy operational assessment?

Trial ledger

iteration number
1
objective
Map the SHA-verified ALIX narrative, execute labeled public proxy variants, and publish derived evidence without native indicator admission.
status
completed

Timing and cost sensitivity

Lag-1 is the declared causal baseline; lag-0 is shown only as a research sensitivity. Costs and slippage are omitted.

Next questions

Can a separately authorized public export provide source-linked daily VMCOS, HILO, and ALIX observations with release metadata?
Does constituent Net 13-week versus Net 52-week breadth change the trend-gate proxy behavior?
What costs, turnover, point-in-time releases, and declared outcome horizon should be used before any proxy operational assessment?

Review status

published. Research publication does not imply official admission.

Return to pending research