{
  "article": {
    "official_admission": false,
    "required_headings": [
      "Summary",
      "Source",
      "What the source claims",
      "Rules actually disclosed",
      "What had to be inferred",
      "Research questions",
      "Data",
      "Baseline implementation",
      "What the signal looks like",
      "Historical events",
      "State-space exploration",
      "Parameter sensitivity",
      "What worked",
      "What did not work",
      "Why the failures appear to happen",
      "Regime behavior",
      "Timing and cost sensitivity",
      "Combinations",
      "Candidate frontier",
      "Agent assessment",
      "Limitations",
      "What to try interactively",
      "Suggested next research",
      "Promotion status",
      "Trial ledger",
      "Validation protocol",
      "Portfolio contribution"
    ],
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "regime_dependent",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "needs_more_research",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "insufficient_events"
    ],
    "sections": {
      "Baseline implementation": {
        "claim_kind": "inferred",
        "family": "level",
        "id": "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1",
        "label": "causal exploratory baseline",
        "lag_bars": 1,
        "lookback": 12,
        "threshold": 0.0
      },
      "Candidate frontier": [
        {
          "category": "simplest_reasonable",
          "id": "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Longest common public-proxy baseline with one available-bar lag."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_return",
          "id": "alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Descriptive candidate only; substitutes price trend for unavailable constituent breadth."
        },
        {
          "category": "best_source_fidelity",
          "id": "alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1",
          "interpretation": "Closest public analogue to a named fast-minus-slow component."
        },
        {
          "category": "most_stable",
          "id": "alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2",
          "interpretation": "Longer-window equal-weight stress blend retained as a robustness neighbor."
        }
      ],
      "Data": {
        "common_span": "2002-07-01/2026-07-01",
        "inventory_path": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
        "manifest_path": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
        "native_fidelity": false,
        "proxy_database": "data/market.sqlite (read-only)",
        "proxy_series": [
          "NFCILEVERAGE",
          "BAA10Y",
          "SPY",
          "IEF"
        ],
        "publication_lag": "Unknown for native ALIX; proxy experiment uses monthly observations and one or two available-bar execution lags.",
        "redistribution": "Derived proxy values and summaries only; source bytes, credentials, cookies, private data, and unverified native series are excluded.",
        "revision_policy": "Native ALIX revision/vintage policy is undisclosed; no source-linked observations are redistributed.",
        "snapshot_database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite",
        "source_fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:46:53Z",
        "source_page_sha256": "sha256:9aae9dcf82b77c6195e2e586fc79ba20fe792093867ba4f30cec84f0120aca77",
        "source_page_url": "https://recessionalert.com/alix/"
      },
      "Limitations": [
        "The proprietary VMCOS/HILO/Net 13-week/Net 52-week observations and native ALIX history are unavailable in the checked-in snapshot.",
        "The article's daily subscriber-print claim does not disclose calculation cutoff, release timestamp, timezone, vintage, late-input behavior, or revision schedule.",
        "The source provides warning language but no executable action mapping, target, sizing, holding period, re-entry, costs, or slippage.",
        "Public proxies are monthly analogues and do not establish native ALIX parity; lag-0 is research-only and lag-1 is the causal baseline.",
        "Descriptive close-only metrics omit transaction costs and must not be read as market validation or an official catalog admission."
      ],
      "Portfolio contribution": {},
      "Promotion status": [
        "Not promoted. The source-fidelity spec remains insufficient_evidence and no native ALIX registry entry is created."
      ],
      "Research questions": [
        "Can the incomplete ALIX narrative yield transparent, causally timed exploratory public proxies over the longest checked-in history without claiming native source fidelity?"
      ],
      "Rules actually disclosed": [
        "Three named EMA/breadth components are documented, with zero-line warning language only; no executable trade mapping is disclosed."
      ],
      "Source": {
        "article_date": "2019-11-01",
        "fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:46:53Z",
        "native_span": "One dated narrative article; the page claims daily subscriber prints and a 20-year download but supplies no source-linked numeric ALIX/VMCOS/HILO series.",
        "public_boundary": "Summaries, hashes, metadata, and derived proxy metrics only; no cached HTML/assets, credentials, cookies, private data, or unverified native series.",
        "publication_lag": "Unknown; article-to-crawl interval is archival delay, not a native indicator release lag.",
        "redacted_url": "https://recessionalert.com/alix/",
        "sha256": "sha256:9aae9dcf82b77c6195e2e586fc79ba20fe792093867ba4f30cec84f0120aca77",
        "title": "The Average Liquidity Index (ALIX) | RecessionAlert"
      },
      "Suggested next research": [
        "Can a separately authorized public export provide source-linked daily VMCOS, HILO, and ALIX observations with release metadata?",
        "Does constituent Net 13-week versus Net 52-week breadth change the trend-gate proxy behavior?",
        "What costs, turnover, point-in-time releases, and declared outcome horizon should be used before any proxy operational assessment?"
      ],
      "Summary": [
        "Six inferred public-proxy variants were executed on the common 2002-07 through 2026-07 monthly panel; the lag-1 12-month liquidity-level proxy is the declared descriptive baseline.",
        "The fast-minus-slow spread, price-trend gate, equal-weight ensemble, threshold/lookback neighbor, and lag-0 sensitivity preserve nearby alternatives and negative or timing-sensitive results.",
        "Proxy signals and equity curves are descriptive exploratory overlays; no result establishes native ALIX values, a buy/sell rule, or market-timing validity."
      ],
      "Timing and cost sensitivity": [
        "Lag-1 is the declared causal baseline; lag-0 is shown only as a research sensitivity. Costs and slippage are omitted."
      ],
      "Trial ledger": [
        {
          "iteration_number": 1,
          "objective": "Map the SHA-verified ALIX narrative, execute labeled public proxy variants, and publish derived evidence without native indicator admission.",
          "status": "completed"
        }
      ],
      "Validation protocol": {},
      "What had to be inferred": [
        "All six tested families are inferred public analogues and remain separate from the native ALIX source-fidelity record."
      ],
      "What the source claims": [
        "The article describes ALIX as the average of EMA(21) VMCOS, EMA(10) less EMA(21) VMCOS, and EMA(10) less EMA(20) of Net 13-week less Net 52-week highs.",
        "Short-term components below zero are described as early warnings; ALIX below zero is described as a likely volatility or sideways-movement warning, not a certainty of further decline.",
        "The source claims daily subscriber ALIX prints and a downloadable 20-year history, but does not disclose calculation cutoff, release timestamp, timezone, vintage, or revision schedule.",
        "The checked-in row has no source-linked VMCOS, HILO, Net 13-week, Net 52-week, or ALIX observations and no target-page asset rows.",
        "The source supplies no complete buy, sell, hold, re-entry, target, sizing, or execution mapping.",
        "This campaign tests labeled public analogues using NFCILEVERAGE, BAA10Y, SPY, and IEF; no proxy result is native ALIX evidence."
      ],
      "What to try interactively": [
        {
          "name": "spec",
          "type": "enum",
          "values": [
            "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1",
            "alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1",
            "alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1",
            "alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2",
            "alix_proxy_level_lb6_tm05_lag2",
            "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag0_sensitivity"
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "threshold",
          "note": "Inferred proxy threshold; not a documented native ALIX trade threshold.",
          "type": "float"
        },
        {
          "name": "holding_period",
          "note": "Exploratory display control only.",
          "type": "integer",
          "values": [
            10,
            20,
            40
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "title": "RecessionAlert ALIX \u2014 inferred public-proxy campaign"
  },
  "campaign": {
    "campaign_id": "recessionalert-alix-1351",
    "iteration_number": 1,
    "research_tags": [
      "data_limited",
      "fidelity_mismatch",
      "parameter_sensitive",
      "regime_dependent",
      "predictive_not_tradable",
      "needs_more_research",
      "interesting_negative_result",
      "insufficient_events"
    ],
    "status": "published",
    "title": "RecessionAlert ALIX \u2014 inferred public-proxy campaign"
  },
  "candidate_frontier": [
    {
      "category": "simplest_reasonable",
      "id": "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Longest common public-proxy baseline with one available-bar lag."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_return",
      "id": "alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Descriptive candidate only; substitutes price trend for unavailable constituent breadth."
    },
    {
      "category": "best_source_fidelity",
      "id": "alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1",
      "interpretation": "Closest public analogue to a named fast-minus-slow component."
    },
    {
      "category": "most_stable",
      "id": "alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2",
      "interpretation": "Longer-window equal-weight stress blend retained as a robustness neighbor."
    }
  ],
  "candidate_variants": [
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "family": "level",
      "id": "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1",
      "label": "causal exploratory baseline",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "family": "spread",
      "id": "alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1",
      "label": "fast-minus-slow component analogue",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "speculative_extension",
      "family": "trend_gate",
      "id": "alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1",
      "label": "price-trend breadth substitute",
      "lag_bars": 1,
      "lookback": 12,
      "threshold": 0.0
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "speculative_extension",
      "family": "ensemble",
      "id": "alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2",
      "label": "component-average robustness neighbor",
      "lag_bars": 2,
      "lookback": 21,
      "threshold": 0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "family": "level",
      "id": "alix_proxy_level_lb6_tm05_lag2",
      "label": "short-lookback threshold neighbor",
      "lag_bars": 2,
      "lookback": 6,
      "threshold": -0.5
    },
    {
      "claim_kind": "inferred",
      "family": "level",
      "id": "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag0_sensitivity",
      "label": "research-only same-close sensitivity",
      "lag_bars": 0,
      "lookback": 12,
      "threshold": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "event_tables": [],
  "evidence": {},
  "execution_assumptions": {},
  "interactive_specs": [
    {
      "name": "spec",
      "type": "enum",
      "values": [
        "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag1",
        "alix_proxy_spread_lb12_t0_lag1",
        "alix_proxy_trend_lb12_t0_lag1",
        "alix_proxy_ensemble_lb21_t05_lag2",
        "alix_proxy_level_lb6_tm05_lag2",
        "alix_proxy_level_lb12_t0_lag0_sensitivity"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "threshold",
      "note": "Inferred proxy threshold; not a documented native ALIX trade threshold.",
      "type": "float"
    },
    {
      "name": "holding_period",
      "note": "Exploratory display control only.",
      "type": "integer",
      "values": [
        10,
        20,
        40
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "The proprietary VMCOS/HILO/Net 13-week/Net 52-week observations and native ALIX history are unavailable in the checked-in snapshot.",
    "The article's daily subscriber-print claim does not disclose calculation cutoff, release timestamp, timezone, vintage, late-input behavior, or revision schedule.",
    "The source provides warning language but no executable action mapping, target, sizing, holding period, re-entry, costs, or slippage.",
    "Public proxies are monthly analogues and do not establish native ALIX parity; lag-0 is research-only and lag-1 is the causal baseline.",
    "Descriptive close-only metrics omit transaction costs and must not be read as market validation or an official catalog admission."
  ],
  "parameter_grids": [],
  "provenance": {
    "common_span": "2002-07-01/2026-07-01",
    "inventory_path": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md",
    "manifest_path": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json",
    "native_fidelity": false,
    "proxy_database": "data/market.sqlite (read-only)",
    "proxy_series": [
      "NFCILEVERAGE",
      "BAA10Y",
      "SPY",
      "IEF"
    ],
    "publication_lag": "Unknown for native ALIX; proxy experiment uses monthly observations and one or two available-bar execution lags.",
    "redistribution": "Derived proxy values and summaries only; source bytes, credentials, cookies, private data, and unverified native series are excluded.",
    "revision_policy": "Native ALIX revision/vintage policy is undisclosed; no source-linked observations are redistributed.",
    "snapshot_database": "data/recessionalert.sqlite",
    "source_fetched_at": "2026-08-22T23:46:53Z",
    "source_page_sha256": "sha256:9aae9dcf82b77c6195e2e586fc79ba20fe792093867ba4f30cec84f0120aca77",
    "source_page_url": "https://recessionalert.com/alix/"
  },
  "regime_tables": [],
  "schema_version": "research-publication/v1",
  "series": {
    "availability": "unavailable",
    "dates": [],
    "reason": "No reproducible underlying price and signal-input series are published for this expression."
  },
  "signals": {
    "spec": null,
    "specs": []
  },
  "trial_ledger": []
}