RecessionAlert PRO Charts: disclosed rules, no single playable signal
Insufficient evidence 1366 · 2026-08-30
Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > PRO | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a causally timed, playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?
No. The SHA-pinned CHARTS PRO page discloses MTLV2/DCOM medium-term factors, six long-term trough-buy counters, and Fed balance-sheet/liquidity chart interpretations, including some thresholds and schedules. It provides no source-linked numeric observations, single scalar state, complete input-vintage policy, standalone sell/exit rule, or portfolio execution map. The selected body is sha256:57ddf56cb62e1dd8ad38fae88849241fa3f07f3dab2188de4b16df00c1c523eb, fetched 2026-08-22T23:38:33Z, with five same-URL crawl-log rows and zero target asset rows. The safe result is an insufficient-evidence public gap report with no playable registry change.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the offline snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical target page | SHA-verified | 109252 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:57ddf56cb62e1dd8ad38fae88849241fa3f07f3dab2188de4b16df00c1c523eb |
| Disclosed indicator family | Context and component rules | MTLV2/DCOM, six trough-buy counters, and Fed balance-sheet headline/components interpretations |
| Source-linked observations | Unavailable | No canonical numeric series, source-linked chart values, or target page asset rows |
| Causal execution | Fail closed | Future overlays must wait for point-in-time publication and execute on the next available trading bar; same-close use is unsupported |
| Playable registry signal | Not registered | No single scalar state, complete vintage policy, standalone SELL rule, or portfolio semantics |
Disclosed timing and native-span limits
| cadence | publication |
|---|---|
| PRO composite | Every 15 minutes for PRO subscribers; exact timezone, cutoff, and input lag unknown |
| Fed balance sheet | Weekly each Wednesday from H.4.1; exact release time, processing delay, holidays, and revisions unknown |
| Long-term counters | Average t+1 through t+6 days after trough are signal timing, not release lag |
| Native span | Since-1990 language appears for model percentiles/MODEL-13WK; exact continuous spans absent |
Source-linked signal availability
No synthetic equity curve, signal series, or overlay metric is emitted.
Stats
| CAGR | 0.00% | Sharpe | 0.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | 0.00% | maxDD | 0.00% |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish source-described formulas, thresholds, publication schedules, provenance, causal policy, and explicit gaps only; do not register a single signal or substitute absent chart/workbook assets.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
The page is a multi-component chart family rather than one scalar indicator. No source-linked numeric observations, chart values, or historical download rows are present. Long-term model percentiles and MODEL-13WK mention since 1990, but exact continuous native dates are absent. Proprietary factor definitions, normalization, calibration, initialization, persistence, and hysteresis are incomplete. Constituent membership, listed shares, breadth/high-count inputs, VIX vintages, and H.4.1 source vintages are absent. The five same-URL crawl snapshots are page history, not an economic input revision policy. Publication intervals do not establish underlying input release lag, cutoff, timezone, holiday, or late-arrival semantics. No single state encoding, standalone SELL, exit, re-entry, target, sizing, holding, fill, slippage, cost, cash, or rebalance rule is disclosed. No signal, performance, false-signal, subperiod, adjacent-parameter, alternative-data, or market-outcome metric is computable. No proxy, synthetic extension, constituent rebuild, third-party acquisition, or live refresh was authorized. Absent values must remain unavailable; no values are imputed from images, chart bytes, workbooks, or later revisions.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert PRO Charts disclosed rules no single playable" --body "Follow-up to 1366: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > PRO | RecessionAlert' be" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"