{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1366-analysis.html", "answer": "No. The SHA-pinned CHARTS PRO page discloses MTLV2/DCOM medium-term factors, six long-term trough-buy counters, and Fed balance-sheet/liquidity chart interpretations, including some thresholds and schedules. It provides no source-linked numeric observations, single scalar state, complete input-vintage policy, standalone sell/exit rule, or portfolio execution map. The selected body is sha256:57ddf56cb62e1dd8ad38fae88849241fa3f07f3dab2188de4b16df00c1c523eb, fetched 2026-08-22T23:38:33Z, with five same-URL crawl-log rows and zero target asset rows. The safe result is an insufficient-evidence public gap report with no playable registry change.", "bead_ids": [ "1366" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": null, "date": "2026-08-30", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish source-described formulas, thresholds, publication schedules, provenance, causal policy, and explicit gaps only; do not register a single signal or substitute absent chart/workbook assets.", "equity": { "experiment": [], "labels": [], "spy": [], "spy_labels": [] }, "errors": "The page is a multi-component chart family rather than one scalar indicator. No source-linked numeric observations, chart values, or historical download rows are present. Long-term model percentiles and MODEL-13WK mention since 1990, but exact continuous native dates are absent. Proprietary factor definitions, normalization, calibration, initialization, persistence, and hysteresis are incomplete. Constituent membership, listed shares, breadth/high-count inputs, VIX vintages, and H.4.1 source vintages are absent. The five same-URL crawl snapshots are page history, not an economic input revision policy. Publication intervals do not establish underlying input release lag, cutoff, timezone, holiday, or late-arrival semantics. No single state encoding, standalone SELL, exit, re-entry, target, sizing, holding, fill, slippage, cost, cash, or rebalance rule is disclosed. No signal, performance, false-signal, subperiod, adjacent-parameter, alternative-data, or market-outcome metric is computable. No proxy, synthetic extension, constituent rebuild, third-party acquisition, or live refresh was authorized. Absent values must remain unavailable; no values are imputed from images, chart bytes, workbooks, or later revisions.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "deferred", "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert PRO Charts disclosed rules no single playable\" --body \"Follow-up to 1366: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > PRO | RecessionAlert' be\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert PRO Charts disclosed rules no single playable\" --body \"Follow-up to 1366: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > PRO | RecessionAlert' be\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1366", "issue_ids": [ "1366" ], "monthly": { "as": [], "labels": [], "ours": [] }, "page": "experiments/1366.html", "performance": { "cagr": 0.0, "max_drawdown": 0.0, "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.", "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly", "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "volatility": null }, "provenance": { "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-pro-charts.json", "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_pro_charts.py", "finding": "research/findings/1366.md", "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1366.json", "tearsheet": null }, "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > PRO | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a causally timed, playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?", "safe_withdrawal": null, "signalSeries": null, "signals": [], "slug": "1366", "stats": { "cagr": 0.0, "canonical_series_observations": 0, "declared_component_groups": 3, "economic_publication_lag": "partially disclosed: PRO update interval and weekly H.4.1 schedule are stated, but input release lags, cutoffs, vintages, and revisions are unknown", "executable_rule_disclosed": false, "executable_signal_rows": 0, "fed_update_schedule": "each Wednesday from the Fed H.4.1 release", "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true, "late_input_rejected": true, "long_term_model_native_language": "percentiles and MODEL-13WK condition reference occasions since 1990; exact continuous dates absent", "manifest_digest_verified": true, "maxDD": 0.0, "page_content_length": 109252, "page_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:38:33Z", "playable": false, "pro_update_interval": "15 minutes for PRO subscribers", "registry_changed": false, "same_close_execution_supported": false, "same_url_crawl_vintages": 5, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "source_body_digest_verified": true, "successful_same_url_hashes": 5, "target_page_asset_rows": 0, "unavailable_state_preserved": true }, "status": "insufficient_evidence", "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence", "supplemental": { "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:38:33Z", "causal_policy": "first-release point-in-time inputs, publication-boundary wait, next available trading bar, no same-close execution", "decision": "insufficient_evidence", "destination": "Other / Indicators only if a future authorized refresh makes one component a complete playable signal; current result is Other / Research", "indicator_id": "recessionalert_charts_pro", "native_span": "model percentile/MODEL-13WK language since 1990; exact component spans unknown", "public_boundary": "Summaries, source hash, formulas, thresholds, timing, and gaps only; no cached HTML, chart/workbook bytes, or account data.", "publication_lag": "PRO 15-minute update interval and Wednesday H.4.1 schedule disclosed; release cutoffs/vintages unknown", "registered": false, "registry_action": "not_registered", "research_narrative": "This is an offline source-replication and evidence-gap report, not a backtest, signal feed, or investment recommendation.", "site_section": "Other / Research", "source_sha256": "sha256:57ddf56cb62e1dd8ad38fae88849241fa3f07f3dab2188de4b16df00c1c523eb" }, "tax_analysis": null, "taxable_stats": null, "title": "RecessionAlert PRO Charts: disclosed rules, no single playable signal", "trading_costs": null, "verify": { "as_cagr": null, "as_stats": null, "cagr_delta": null, "gates": null, "last_verify_at": null, "monthly_bias": null, "monthly_corr": null, "monthly_mae": null, "n_months": null, "ours_cagr": 0.0, "ours_stats": { "ann_return": 0.0, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0 }, "passed": null, "status": "not_applicable", "verify_status": null }, "visualizations": [ { "data": { "rows": [ { "detail": "109252 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:57ddf56cb62e1dd8ad38fae88849241fa3f07f3dab2188de4b16df00c1c523eb", "evidence": "Canonical target page", "status": "SHA-verified" }, { "detail": "MTLV2/DCOM, six trough-buy counters, and Fed balance-sheet headline/components interpretations", "evidence": "Disclosed indicator family", "status": "Context and component rules" }, { "detail": "No canonical numeric series, source-linked chart values, or target page asset rows", "evidence": "Source-linked observations", "status": "Unavailable" }, { "detail": "Future overlays must wait for point-in-time publication and execute on the next available trading bar; same-close use is unsupported", "evidence": "Causal execution", "status": "Fail closed" }, { "detail": "No single scalar state, complete vintage policy, standalone SELL rule, or portfolio semantics", "evidence": "Playable registry signal", "status": "Not registered" } ] }, "title": "What the offline snapshot proves", "type": "evidence_table" }, { "data": { "rows": [ { "cadence": "PRO composite", "publication": "Every 15 minutes for PRO subscribers; exact timezone, cutoff, and input lag unknown" }, { "cadence": "Fed balance sheet", "publication": "Weekly each Wednesday from H.4.1; exact release time, processing delay, holidays, and revisions unknown" }, { "cadence": "Long-term counters", "publication": "Average t+1 through t+6 days after trough are signal timing, not release lag" }, { "cadence": "Native span", "publication": "Since-1990 language appears for model percentiles/MODEL-13WK; exact continuous spans absent" } ] }, "title": "Disclosed timing and native-span limits", "type": "evidence_table" }, { "data": { "labels": [ "source-linked observations", "executable signal rows", "target asset rows" ], "note": "No synthetic equity curve, signal series, or overlay metric is emitted.", "values": [ 0, 0, 0 ] }, "title": "Source-linked signal availability", "type": "bar" } ] }, "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z", "id": "1366", "schema_id": "experiments/v1", "schema_version": 1 }