RecessionAlert Standard Charts: disclosed rules, no single playable signal
Insufficient evidence 1365 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > Standard | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a causally timed, playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?
No. The SHA-pinned Standard Charts page discloses a multi-tab family of SP-500 trough/top probability models, TRENDEX, MCOS, HILO/HILO2, ALIX, and NEWHI formulas and directional thresholds, but no source-linked observations, single scalar identity, complete vintage policy, state precedence, or portfolio execution map. The selected body is sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75, fetched 2026-08-22T23:38:30Z, with five same-URL crawl-log rows and zero canonical asset rows. The safe result is an insufficient-evidence public gap report with no playable registry change.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the offline snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical target page | SHA-verified | 123,739 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75 |
| Disclosed indicator family | Context and component rules | Trough/top probabilities, TRENDEX, MCOS, HILO/HILO2, ALIX, and NEWHI formulas and directional thresholds |
| Source-linked observations | Unavailable | No canonical numeric series, chart bytes, or workbook rows; target page has zero asset rows |
| Causal execution | Fail closed | Wait for the stated publication window and use the next available trading bar; same-close use is unsupported |
| Playable registry signal | Not registered | The page is a multi-component family without one scalar state, complete vintages, or portfolio semantics |
Disclosed source timing
| cadence | publication |
|---|---|
| daily | 08:00 GMT / 04:00 EST |
| weekly | mostly Saturday/Sunday, no later Monday at 08:00 GMT / 04:00 EST |
| monthly | by the third working day |
| intraday | every 15 minutes for NEWHI/GTR/SPD/ZWG |
| ALIX | end-of-day |
Source-linked signal availability
No synthetic equity curve or signal series is emitted.
Stats
| CAGR | 0.00% | Sharpe | 0.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | 0.00% | maxDD | 0.00% |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish source-described formulas, thresholds, publication schedule, provenance, causal policy, and explicit gaps only; do not register a single signal or substitute linked chart/workbook assets.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
The page is a multi-tab chart family rather than one scalar indicator. No source-linked numeric observations or historical download rows are present. Trough/top models claim multi-decade history without exact dates; NEWHI explicitly begins in August 2016. Proprietary DeMark definitions, probability calibration, normalization, and initialization are absent. Breadth, volume, constituent membership, listed-share, and revision vintages are absent. Linked images and workbooks were not canonical asset rows and were not fetched. Publication schedule is not a complete underlying economic release-lag or point-in-time vintage policy. No state precedence, persistence, reset, hysteresis, target, sizing, holding, cost, cash, exit, or re-entry rule is disclosed. No signal, performance, false-signal, subperiod, adjacent-parameter, or market-outcome metric is computable. No proxy, synthetic extension, constituent rebuild, third-party acquisition, or live refresh was authorized.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert Standard Charts disclosed rules no single pla" --body "Follow-up to 1365: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > Standard | RecessionAler" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"