{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1365-analysis.html", "answer": "No. The SHA-pinned Standard Charts page discloses a multi-tab family of SP-500 trough/top probability models, TRENDEX, MCOS, HILO/HILO2, ALIX, and NEWHI formulas and directional thresholds, but no source-linked observations, single scalar identity, complete vintage policy, state precedence, or portfolio execution map. The selected body is sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75, fetched 2026-08-22T23:38:30Z, with five same-URL crawl-log rows and zero canonical asset rows. The safe result is an insufficient-evidence public gap report with no playable registry change.", "bead_ids": [ "1365" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": null, "date": "2026-08-29", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish source-described formulas, thresholds, publication schedule, provenance, causal policy, and explicit gaps only; do not register a single signal or substitute linked chart/workbook assets.", "equity": { "experiment": [], "labels": [], "spy": [], "spy_labels": [] }, "errors": "The page is a multi-tab chart family rather than one scalar indicator. No source-linked numeric observations or historical download rows are present. Trough/top models claim multi-decade history without exact dates; NEWHI explicitly begins in August 2016. Proprietary DeMark definitions, probability calibration, normalization, and initialization are absent. Breadth, volume, constituent membership, listed-share, and revision vintages are absent. Linked images and workbooks were not canonical asset rows and were not fetched. Publication schedule is not a complete underlying economic release-lag or point-in-time vintage policy. No state precedence, persistence, reset, hysteresis, target, sizing, holding, cost, cash, exit, or re-entry rule is disclosed. No signal, performance, false-signal, subperiod, adjacent-parameter, or market-outcome metric is computable. No proxy, synthetic extension, constituent rebuild, third-party acquisition, or live refresh was authorized.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "deferred", "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Standard Charts disclosed rules no single pla\" --body \"Follow-up to 1365: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > Standard | RecessionAler\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Standard Charts disclosed rules no single pla\" --body \"Follow-up to 1365: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > Standard | RecessionAler\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1365", "issue_ids": [ "1365" ], "monthly": { "as": [], "labels": [], "ours": [] }, "page": "experiments/1365.html", "performance": { "cagr": 0.0, "max_drawdown": 0.0, "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.", "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly", "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "volatility": null }, "provenance": { "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-standard-charts.json", "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_standard_charts.py", "finding": "research/findings/1365.md", "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1365.json", "tearsheet": null }, "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > Standard | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a causally timed, playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?", "safe_withdrawal": null, "signalSeries": null, "signals": [], "slug": "1365", "stats": { "cagr": 0.0, "canonical_series_observations": 0, "daily_update_time": "08:00 GMT / 04:00 EST", "declared_component_tabs": 16, "economic_publication_lag": "partially disclosed: chart publication windows are stated, but underlying input release lags, cutoffs, and vintages are unknown", "executable_rule_disclosed": false, "executable_signal_rows": 0, "intraday_update_interval": "15 minutes for NEWHI/GTR/SPD/ZWG", "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true, "late_input_rejected": true, "manifest_digest_verified": true, "maxDD": 0.0, "monthly_update_time": "third working day", "newhi_native_start": "August 2016", "page_content_length": 123739, "page_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:38:30Z", "playable": false, "registry_changed": false, "same_close_execution_supported": false, "same_url_crawl_vintages": 5, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "source_body_digest_verified": true, "successful_same_url_hashes": 4, "target_page_asset_rows": 0, "trough_top_native_span": "multi-decade historical record claimed; exact dates absent", "unavailable_state_preserved": true, "weekly_update_time": "mostly Saturday/Sunday, no later Monday at 08:00 GMT / 04:00 EST" }, "status": "insufficient_evidence", "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence", "supplemental": { "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:38:30Z", "causal_policy": "first-release point-in-time inputs, publication-boundary wait, next available trading bar, no same-close execution", "decision": "insufficient_evidence", "destination": "Other / Indicators if a future authorized refresh makes one component playable", "indicator_id": "recessionalert_standard_charts", "native_span": "multi-decade claim for trough/top; NEWHI from August 2016; other spans unknown", "public_boundary": "Summaries, source hash, formulas, thresholds, timing, and gaps only; no cached HTML, chart/workbook bytes, or account data.", "publication_lag": "daily/weekly/monthly/intraday schedule disclosed; underlying economic lag and cutoff unknown", "registered": false, "registry_action": "not_registered", "research_narrative": "This is an offline source-replication and evidence-gap report, not a backtest or investment recommendation.", "site_section": "Other / Research", "source_sha256": "sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75" }, "tax_analysis": null, "taxable_stats": null, "title": "RecessionAlert Standard Charts: disclosed rules, no single playable signal", "trading_costs": null, "verify": { "as_cagr": null, "as_stats": null, "cagr_delta": null, "gates": null, "last_verify_at": null, "monthly_bias": null, "monthly_corr": null, "monthly_mae": null, "n_months": null, "ours_cagr": 0.0, "ours_stats": { "ann_return": 0.0, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0 }, "passed": null, "status": "not_applicable", "verify_status": null }, "visualizations": [ { "data": { "rows": [ { "detail": "123,739 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:c610205a996e580266e255a7b7999bc33e889b12bed140898f0056c3bacdae75", "evidence": "Canonical target page", "status": "SHA-verified" }, { "detail": "Trough/top probabilities, TRENDEX, MCOS, HILO/HILO2, ALIX, and NEWHI formulas and directional thresholds", "evidence": "Disclosed indicator family", "status": "Context and component rules" }, { "detail": "No canonical numeric series, chart bytes, or workbook rows; target page has zero asset rows", "evidence": "Source-linked observations", "status": "Unavailable" }, { "detail": "Wait for the stated publication window and use the next available trading bar; same-close use is unsupported", "evidence": "Causal execution", "status": "Fail closed" }, { "detail": "The page is a multi-component family without one scalar state, complete vintages, or portfolio semantics", "evidence": "Playable registry signal", "status": "Not registered" } ] }, "title": "What the offline snapshot proves", "type": "evidence_table" }, { "data": { "rows": [ { "cadence": "daily", "publication": "08:00 GMT / 04:00 EST" }, { "cadence": "weekly", "publication": "mostly Saturday/Sunday, no later Monday at 08:00 GMT / 04:00 EST" }, { "cadence": "monthly", "publication": "by the third working day" }, { "cadence": "intraday", "publication": "every 15 minutes for NEWHI/GTR/SPD/ZWG" }, { "cadence": "ALIX", "publication": "end-of-day" } ] }, "title": "Disclosed source timing", "type": "evidence_table" }, { "data": { "labels": [ "source-linked observations", "executable signal rows" ], "note": "No synthetic equity curve or signal series is emitted.", "values": [ 0, 0 ] }, "title": "Source-linked signal availability", "type": "bar" } ] }, "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z", "id": "1365", "schema_id": "experiments/v1", "schema_version": 1 }