RecessionAlert Bull Market Safari: eight observations, no playable signal
Insufficient evidence 1362 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bull Market Safari | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?
The SHA-pinned page is a May 22, 2023 article that records eight qualitative bullish-context observations across labor, earnings, global leading data, the S&P 500 200-day average, Zweig breadth, WLEI, a Gen2 probability model, and CMHI. It explicitly says bearish data outweighs bullish data 2:1. The article supplies no source-linked component series, common aggregation/state machine, point-in-time release ledger, current value, BUY/SELL/re-entry rule, or portfolio execution map. The selected page body is sha256:10b2985e4d23ae06f1011ff5fb80bcef8e25adcd227910ac71e82cb8079da60a, fetched 2026-08-22T23:48:19Z, with two same-URL crawl revisions and zero target-page asset rows. All history-extension options were rejected for fidelity or authorization reasons. The result is an insufficient-evidence public gap report with no playable registry change.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Research narrative
The short version
Bull Market Safari is a useful reading list of eight bullish observations, not a ready-to-run indicator. The article itself says bearish data still outweighs bullish data 2:1.
Why no playable card
There is no shared score, no source-linked component history, no release-vintage ledger, and no disclosed buy, sell, or re-entry map. A chart or current value would imply precision the source does not provide.
What would change the decision
An authorized refresh would need to identify each input, its point-in-time availability, a reproducible aggregation rule, and causal execution semantics before a future Other-indicators card could be considered.
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the offline snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical BMS page | SHA-verified | 96,394 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:10b2985e4d23ae06f1011ff5fb80bcef8e25adcd227910ac71e82cb8079da60a |
| Eight observations | Narrative context | Labor, earnings, global LEI, S&P 500 200-day average, Zweig breadth, WLEI, probability model, and CMHI |
| Counter-evidence | Explicit | The page says bearish data outweighs bullish data 2:1 and lists missing recession-bottom preconditions |
| Native/effective span | Not computable | Dated observations and contextual lookbacks exist, but no continuous BMS state series or complete component set is pinned |
| Publication lag | Unknown | Article timestamp is 2023-05-22T17:53:36-0400; component release clocks and vintages are undisclosed |
| Causal execution | Fail closed | No target, allocation, holding period, fill, cost, or re-entry rule; any future overlay needs point-in-time inputs and an available-bar lag |
| Registry action | Not registered | Insufficient evidence; no current value, playable state, or common aggregation rule |
Eight observations, not eight signal weights
Each mark means only that the article describes an observation. It is not a score, weight, or trading signal; the article provides no aggregation rule.
Stats
| CAGR | 0.00% | Sharpe | 0.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | 0.00% | maxDD | 0.00% |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish the eight disclosed bullish-context observations, counter-evidence, provenance, native/contextual span, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register a playable signal or substitute related pages/workbooks.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked machine-readable series for any of the eight observations is attached to the target row. No common formula, aggregation weights, count threshold, precedence, persistence, reset, or missing-input encoding is disclosed. No BUY, SELL, risk-on, risk-off, re-entry, target instrument, allocation, holding period, exit, or cash rule is disclosed. Labor-composite construction, earnings-estimate source, OECD LEI constituents, WLEI series, Gen2 model construction, and CMHI formula are undisclosed or incomplete. The 200-day moving-average condition lacks exact price field, calendar, equality, confirmation, persistence, and execution semantics. ZBT Redux/A formula and thresholds are not disclosed on this page; the linked ZBT row remains distinct. No component release clock, point-in-time vintage history, or revision policy is available. No complete BMS native/effective span is computable. No authorized proxy, synthetic extension, constituent rebuild, third-party acquisition, or live refresh is available. No performance, false-signal, regime-stability, or outcome metric can be evaluated without target series and causal outcome windows. The article's 20-of-20 and 18% moving-average history, example probabilities, and 2:1 balance are contextual source claims, not a tested executable strategy. The selected page fetch is archival delay; it does not establish underlying publication lag or point-in-time availability. Related pages and Excel artifacts are not silently merged into BMS. Raw cached HTML, images, chart bytes, workbook bytes, nonce-bearing URLs, private account data, and credentials are not redistributed.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert Bull Market Safari eight observations no play" --body "Follow-up to 1362: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bull Market Safari | RecessionAle" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"