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    "answer": "The SHA-pinned page is a May 22, 2023 article that records eight qualitative bullish-context observations across labor, earnings, global leading data, the S&P 500 200-day average, Zweig breadth, WLEI, a Gen2 probability model, and CMHI. It explicitly says bearish data outweighs bullish data 2:1. The article supplies no source-linked component series, common aggregation/state machine, point-in-time release ledger, current value, BUY/SELL/re-entry rule, or portfolio execution map. The selected page body is sha256:10b2985e4d23ae06f1011ff5fb80bcef8e25adcd227910ac71e82cb8079da60a, fetched 2026-08-22T23:48:19Z, with two same-URL crawl revisions and zero target-page asset rows. All history-extension options were rejected for fidelity or authorization reasons. The result is an insufficient-evidence public gap report with no playable registry change.",
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    "date": "2026-08-29",
    "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish the eight disclosed bullish-context observations, counter-evidence, provenance, native/contextual span, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register a playable signal or substitute related pages/workbooks.",
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    "errors": "No source-linked machine-readable series for any of the eight observations is attached to the target row. No common formula, aggregation weights, count threshold, precedence, persistence, reset, or missing-input encoding is disclosed. No BUY, SELL, risk-on, risk-off, re-entry, target instrument, allocation, holding period, exit, or cash rule is disclosed. Labor-composite construction, earnings-estimate source, OECD LEI constituents, WLEI series, Gen2 model construction, and CMHI formula are undisclosed or incomplete. The 200-day moving-average condition lacks exact price field, calendar, equality, confirmation, persistence, and execution semantics. ZBT Redux/A formula and thresholds are not disclosed on this page; the linked ZBT row remains distinct. No component release clock, point-in-time vintage history, or revision policy is available. No complete BMS native/effective span is computable. No authorized proxy, synthetic extension, constituent rebuild, third-party acquisition, or live refresh is available. No performance, false-signal, regime-stability, or outcome metric can be evaluated without target series and causal outcome windows. The article's 20-of-20 and 18% moving-average history, example probabilities, and 2:1 balance are contextual source claims, not a tested executable strategy. The selected page fetch is archival delay; it does not establish underlying publication lag or point-in-time availability. Related pages and Excel artifacts are not silently merged into BMS. Raw cached HTML, images, chart bytes, workbook bytes, nonce-bearing URLs, private account data, and credentials are not redistributed.",
    "follow_on": [
      {
        "status": "deferred",
        "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed"
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    "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Bull Market Safari eight observations no play\" --body \"Follow-up to 1362: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bull Market Safari | RecessionAle\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
    "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Bull Market Safari eight observations no play\" --body \"Follow-up to 1362: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bull Market Safari | RecessionAle\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
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    "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bull Market Safari | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?",
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      "yLabel": "Indicator value"
    },
    "signals": [],
    "slug": "1362",
    "stats": {
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      "article_to_snapshot_calendar_days": 1188,
      "bullish_observation_count": 8,
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "canonical_series_observations": 0,
      "economic_publication_lag": "unknown",
      "executable_rule_disclosed": false,
      "executable_signal_rows": 0,
      "fail_closed_gaps": 19,
      "historical_moving_average_average_gain_percent": 18,
      "historical_moving_average_observations": 20,
      "historical_moving_average_positive_observations": 20,
      "historical_moving_average_study_start_year": 1928,
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      "manifest_digest_verified": true,
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      "page_content_length": 96394,
      "playable": false,
      "probability_model_history_years": 25,
      "registry_changed": false,
      "related_source_pages": 2,
      "reported_bearish_to_bullish_balance": "2:1",
      "same_close_execution_supported": false,
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    },
    "status": "insufficient_evidence",
    "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence",
    "supplemental": {
      "article_date": "2023-05-22",
      "article_timestamp": "2023-05-22T17:53:36-0400",
      "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:48:19Z",
      "causal_policy": "Treat unknown availability as unavailable; any future overlay requires point-in-time inputs, the next available bar, and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported.",
      "decision": "insufficient_evidence",
      "destination": "other_indicators",
      "indicator_id": "recessionalert-bull-market-safari",
      "native_span": "Narrative observations from early October 2022 through 2023-05-22, plus contextual 25-year and 1928 lookbacks; verifiable continuous BMS span unavailable.",
      "public_boundary": "Publish summaries, hashes, disclosed observations, claimed timing, causal policy, and gap notes only; do not publish cached HTML, chart/media/workbook bytes, nonce-bearing URLs, cookies, credentials, or private account data.",
      "publication_lag": "unknown",
      "registered": false,
      "registry_action": "not_registered",
      "research_narrative": [
        {
          "heading": "The short version",
          "text": "Bull Market Safari is a useful reading list of eight bullish observations, not a ready-to-run indicator. The article itself says bearish data still outweighs bullish data 2:1."
        },
        {
          "heading": "Why no playable card",
          "text": "There is no shared score, no source-linked component history, no release-vintage ledger, and no disclosed buy, sell, or re-entry map. A chart or current value would imply precision the source does not provide."
        },
        {
          "heading": "What would change the decision",
          "text": "An authorized refresh would need to identify each input, its point-in-time availability, a reproducible aggregation rule, and causal execution semantics before a future Other-indicators card could be considered."
        }
      ],
      "source_sha256": "sha256:10b2985e4d23ae06f1011ff5fb80bcef8e25adcd227910ac71e82cb8079da60a"
    },
    "tax_analysis": {
      "ltcg_pct": null,
      "note": "Experiment parity stub: no taxable wrapper; see strategy tax_analysis for methodology",
      "schema_id": "tax-analysis/v1",
      "stcg_pct": null
    },
    "taxable_stats": null,
    "title": "RecessionAlert Bull Market Safari: eight observations, no playable signal",
    "trading_costs": {
      "avg_daily_turnover": 0.00842,
      "avg_yearly_fees": 0.002122,
      "basis": "daily_engine",
      "cost_bps_one_way": 10.0,
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      "n_bars": 402,
      "schema_id": "trading-costs/v1",
      "slippage_bps": 0.0,
      "total_costs": 0.003385
    },
    "verify": {
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      "as_stats": null,
      "cagr_delta": null,
      "gates": null,
      "last_verify_at": null,
      "monthly_bias": null,
      "monthly_corr": null,
      "monthly_mae": null,
      "n_months": null,
      "ours_cagr": 0.0,
      "ours_stats": {
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        "sharpe": 0.0,
        "sortino": 0.0
      },
      "passed": null,
      "status": "not_applicable",
      "verify_status": null
    },
    "visualizations": [
      {
        "data": {
          "rows": [
            {
              "detail": "96,394 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:10b2985e4d23ae06f1011ff5fb80bcef8e25adcd227910ac71e82cb8079da60a",
              "evidence": "Canonical BMS page",
              "status": "SHA-verified"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Labor, earnings, global LEI, S&P 500 200-day average, Zweig breadth, WLEI, probability model, and CMHI",
              "evidence": "Eight observations",
              "status": "Narrative context"
            },
            {
              "detail": "The page says bearish data outweighs bullish data 2:1 and lists missing recession-bottom preconditions",
              "evidence": "Counter-evidence",
              "status": "Explicit"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Dated observations and contextual lookbacks exist, but no continuous BMS state series or complete component set is pinned",
              "evidence": "Native/effective span",
              "status": "Not computable"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Article timestamp is 2023-05-22T17:53:36-0400; component release clocks and vintages are undisclosed",
              "evidence": "Publication lag",
              "status": "Unknown"
            },
            {
              "detail": "No target, allocation, holding period, fill, cost, or re-entry rule; any future overlay needs point-in-time inputs and an available-bar lag",
              "evidence": "Causal execution",
              "status": "Fail closed"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Insufficient evidence; no current value, playable state, or common aggregation rule",
              "evidence": "Registry action",
              "status": "Not registered"
            }
          ]
        },
        "title": "What the offline snapshot proves",
        "type": "evidence_table"
      },
      {
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            "Global LEI",
            "S&P 500 200MA",
            "Zweig breadth",
            "WLEI",
            "Gen2 probability",
            "CMHI"
          ],
          "note": "Each mark means only that the article describes an observation. It is not a score, weight, or trading signal; the article provides no aggregation rule.",
          "values": [
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            1,
            1,
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          ]
        },
        "title": "Eight observations, not eight signal weights",
        "type": "observation_map"
      }
    ]
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z",
  "id": "1362",
  "schema_id": "experiments/v1",
  "schema_version": 1
}