RecessionAlert Bear Market High-Risk Alert: Diffusion-zero cash advice, no series
Insufficient evidence 1359 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bear Market High-Risk Alert | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?
Disclosed risk-off cash advice exists on the page, but no playable signal can be rebuilt from this row alone. The manifest-selected snapshot verified at sha256:9bead77031d36f389d1b2204111f926fce443af211023b6ccda3a4febb59000a on 2026-08-22 records the August 25, 2015 Reflections narrative: market-internals deterioration over the last 20 trading days (plunge 18–24 Aug 2015) put the CMHI Stock Market Health Diffusion on zero, advising zero stock-market exposure; just 3 of 7 major Bear-market paw-prints bearish puts Diffusion to zero and advises cash; three component examples (SP-500 net new long-term highs, NYSE+SP500 % above long-term MAs, net advancing volume breadth) are described as below zero; Seasonality/Momentum-1/Momentum-2/Weekly Economic Index were still above water; Seasonal model forecasted +1→−1 on 2015-09-01. No machine-readable CMHI/component series, full seven-print formulas, chart/PDF payload, or complete execution mapping beyond cash/zero exposure is pinned to this inventory row.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 93,127 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22; SHA256 9bead7703… |
| Disclosed rule | Risk-off cash advice | CMHI Diffusion at 0 after just 3 of 7 bearish paw-prints → zero equity exposure / cash |
| Article datetime | 2015-08-25T17:23:00-0400 | Reflections category |
| Native span | 20-trading-day plunge + Jun–Sep 2015 component camps | No machine-readable series or chart/PDF payload |
| Publication lag | unknown | 4015-day article-to-crawl interval is archive delay only |
| Related identity | Not substituted | de-trended CMHI and Seven Paw-prints pages remain distinct inventory rows |
| Registry action | Not registered | Insufficient evidence — disclosed cash advice without pinned series or complete execution semantics |
Stats
| CAGR | — | Sharpe | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | — | maxDD | — |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed Diffusion-zero cash/zero-exposure narrative, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No machine-readable CMHI Diffusion or seven paw-print observations, numeric span, chart/PDF payload, or source-linked series on this row. Full taxonomy and formulas for all seven major Bear-market paw-prints are incomplete (three bearish examples plus four named still-above-water labels only). Long-term high/low definition, long-term MA periods, volume-breadth construction, and Seasonal model internals are incomplete. Instrument list, weights beyond cash/zero equity exposure, costs, fills, re-entry/BUY map are incomplete. No release clock or measured economic publication lag; only article-to-archive delay. August 2015 Diffusion path and post-2015-09-01 composite-below-zero forecast cannot be recomputed from this snapshot. No captured media/PDF bytes; REPORTS/MACRO>CMHI references signal existence only. de-trended CMHI and Seven Paw-prints workbook/pages must not be treated as interchangeable evidence for this distinct identity without an explicit source-rule merger.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert Bear Market High-Risk Alert Diffusion-zero ca" --body "Follow-up to 1359: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bear Market High-Risk Alert | Rec" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"