{
  "experiment": {
    "alloc": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_as": null,
    "alloc_monthly_as": null,
    "alloc_monthly_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "alloc_yearly_as": null,
    "alloc_yearly_ours": {
      "labels": [
        "2026"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "SPY",
          "values": [
            0.6
          ]
        },
        {
          "name": "CASH",
          "values": [
            0.4
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    "analysis_page": "experiments/1359-analysis.html",
    "answer": "Disclosed risk-off cash advice exists on the page, but no playable signal can be rebuilt from this row alone. The manifest-selected snapshot verified at sha256:9bead77031d36f389d1b2204111f926fce443af211023b6ccda3a4febb59000a on 2026-08-22 records the August 25, 2015 Reflections narrative: market-internals deterioration over the last 20 trading days (plunge 18–24 Aug 2015) put the CMHI Stock Market Health Diffusion on zero, advising zero stock-market exposure; just 3 of 7 major Bear-market paw-prints bearish puts Diffusion to zero and advises cash; three component examples (SP-500 net new long-term highs, NYSE+SP500 % above long-term MAs, net advancing volume breadth) are described as below zero; Seasonality/Momentum-1/Momentum-2/Weekly Economic Index were still above water; Seasonal model forecasted +1→−1 on 2015-09-01. No machine-readable CMHI/component series, full seven-print formulas, chart/PDF payload, or complete execution mapping beyond cash/zero exposure is pinned to this inventory row.",
    "bead_ids": [
      "1359"
    ],
    "cost_variants": {},
    "coverage": {
      "alloc_monthly_labels_n": 12,
      "alloc_yearly_labels_n": 0,
      "as_alloc_rows": 0,
      "as_history_start_year": null,
      "as_returns_n": 0,
      "as_yearly_alloc_rows": 0,
      "coverage_generated_at": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
      "db_path": "data/market.sqlite",
      "db_warm": true,
      "gap_years": null,
      "limiting": {
        "effective_start": "1993-01-29",
        "id": "SPY",
        "kind": "ohlcv",
        "native_start": "1993-01-29",
        "proxied": false,
        "proxy_chain": [],
        "span_basis": "db"
      },
      "macro_meta": [],
      "macros": [],
      "monthly_labels_n": 1,
      "ours_alloc_rows": 1,
      "ours_returns_n": 1,
      "ticker_meta": [
        {
          "end": "2026-07-24",
          "n_rows": 8428,
          "start": "1993-01-29",
          "ticker": "SPY"
        }
      ],
      "tickers": [
        "SPY"
      ]
    },
    "date": "2026-08-29",
    "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed Diffusion-zero cash/zero-exposure narrative, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.",
    "equity": {
      "experiment": [
        1.0
      ],
      "labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ],
      "spy": [
        1.0
      ],
      "spy_labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ]
    },
    "errors": "No machine-readable CMHI Diffusion or seven paw-print observations, numeric span, chart/PDF payload, or source-linked series on this row. Full taxonomy and formulas for all seven major Bear-market paw-prints are incomplete (three bearish examples plus four named still-above-water labels only). Long-term high/low definition, long-term MA periods, volume-breadth construction, and Seasonal model internals are incomplete. Instrument list, weights beyond cash/zero equity exposure, costs, fills, re-entry/BUY map are incomplete. No release clock or measured economic publication lag; only article-to-archive delay. August 2015 Diffusion path and post-2015-09-01 composite-below-zero forecast cannot be recomputed from this snapshot. No captured media/PDF bytes; REPORTS/MACRO>CMHI references signal existence only. de-trended CMHI and Seven Paw-prints workbook/pages must not be treated as interchangeable evidence for this distinct identity without an explicit source-rule merger.",
    "follow_on": [
      {
        "status": "deferred",
        "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed"
      }
    ],
    "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Bear Market High-Risk Alert Diffusion-zero ca\" --body \"Follow-up to 1359: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bear Market High-Risk Alert | Rec\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
    "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Bear Market High-Risk Alert Diffusion-zero ca\" --body \"Follow-up to 1359: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bear Market High-Risk Alert | Rec\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
    "id": "1359",
    "issue_ids": [
      "1359"
    ],
    "monthly": {
      "as": [
        null
      ],
      "labels": [
        "2026-01"
      ],
      "ours": [
        0.0
      ]
    },
    "page": "experiments/1359.html",
    "performance": {
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "max_drawdown": 0.0,
      "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.",
      "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly",
      "sharpe": 0.0,
      "sortino": 0.0,
      "volatility": null
    },
    "provenance": {
      "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-bear-market-high-risk-alert.json",
      "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_bear_market_high_risk_alert.py",
      "finding": "research/findings/1359.md",
      "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1359.json",
      "tearsheet": null
    },
    "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'Bear Market High-Risk Alert | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?",
    "safe_withdrawal": null,
    "signalSeries": {
      "active": [
        false
      ],
      "driver": "Signal driver",
      "entryValue": 0.0,
      "exitValue": 0.0,
      "inputs": [],
      "isDynamic": false,
      "isMulti": false,
      "labels": [
        "2026-01-01"
      ],
      "megaThreshold": null,
      "megaThresholdLabel": null,
      "threshold": 0.0,
      "thresholdKind": "fixed",
      "thresholdLabel": "Entry 0.0",
      "trigger": [
        false
      ],
      "triggers": [],
      "unit": "",
      "values": [
        -0.154
      ],
      "yLabel": "Indicator value"
    },
    "signals": [],
    "slug": "1359",
    "stats": {
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "canonical_series_observations": 0,
      "disclosed_diffusion_zero_after_bearish_count": 3,
      "disclosed_total_paw_prints": 7,
      "disclosed_zero_exposure_advice": true,
      "economic_publication_lag": "unknown",
      "executable_rule_disclosed": true,
      "executable_signal_rows": 0,
      "fail_closed_gaps": 12,
      "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true,
      "manifest_digest_verified": true,
      "maxDD": 0.0,
      "observed_article_to_snapshot_days": 4015,
      "page_content_length": 93127,
      "playable": false,
      "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2,
      "sharpe": 0.0,
      "sortino": 0.0,
      "source_body_digest_verified": true,
      "target_page_asset_rows": 0,
      "target_workbook_asset_rows": 0
    },
    "status": "insufficient_evidence",
    "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence",
    "supplemental": {
      "article_date": "2015-08-25",
      "article_timestamp": "2015-08-25T17:23:00-0400",
      "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:45:17Z",
      "causal_policy": "Treat information as available no earlier than 2015-08-25T17:23:00-0400 and require the next available bar plus at least one additional available-bar execution lag; unknown values remain unavailable rather than imputed, carried forward, or treated as false/neutral; same-close/lookahead unsupported.",
      "decision": "insufficient_evidence",
      "indicator_id": "recessionalert-bear-market-high-risk-alert",
      "native_span": "August 25, 2015 narrative covering a 20-trading-day internals plunge, June–August 2015 component below-zero camps, and a 1 Sep 2015 Seasonal flip forecast",
      "public_boundary": "Publish summaries, hashes, metadata, disclosed Diffusion-zero cash advice, causal timing, and gap notes only; do not publish cached HTML, chart/media/PDF bytes, workbook payloads, nonce-bearing URLs, credentials, cookies, or session/private account data.",
      "publication_lag": "unknown",
      "registered": false,
      "registry_action": "not_registered",
      "research_narrative": "The August 25, 2015 Reflections article supplies an explicit CMHI Stock Market Health Diffusion-at-zero cash/zero-exposure advisory after just 3 of 7 bearish paw-prints, with a Seasonal flip forecast and qualitative SP-500 path filters. Rebuilding a playable Other-indicators signal still requires a pinned CMHI/component series with construction, release timing, and execution semantics that this distinct inventory row does not carry.",
      "source_sha256": "sha256:9bead77031d36f389d1b2204111f926fce443af211023b6ccda3a4febb59000a"
    },
    "tax_analysis": {
      "ltcg_pct": null,
      "note": "Experiment parity stub: no taxable wrapper; see strategy tax_analysis for methodology",
      "schema_id": "tax-analysis/v1",
      "stcg_pct": null
    },
    "taxable_stats": null,
    "title": "RecessionAlert Bear Market High-Risk Alert: Diffusion-zero cash advice, no series",
    "trading_costs": {
      "avg_daily_turnover": 0.00868,
      "avg_yearly_fees": 0.002187,
      "basis": "monthly_proxy",
      "cost_bps_one_way": 10.0,
      "fee_bps": 10.0,
      "n_bars": 1,
      "schema_id": "trading-costs/v1",
      "slippage_bps": 0.0,
      "total_costs": 9e-06
    },
    "verify": {
      "as_cagr": null,
      "as_stats": null,
      "cagr_delta": null,
      "gates": null,
      "last_verify_at": null,
      "monthly_bias": null,
      "monthly_corr": null,
      "monthly_mae": null,
      "n_months": null,
      "ours_cagr": 0.0,
      "ours_stats": {
        "ann_return": 0.0,
        "sharpe": 0.0,
        "sortino": 0.0
      },
      "passed": null,
      "status": "not_applicable",
      "verify_status": null
    },
    "visualizations": [
      {
        "data": {
          "rows": [
            {
              "detail": "93,127 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22; SHA256 9bead7703…",
              "evidence": "Canonical page body",
              "status": "SHA-verified"
            },
            {
              "detail": "CMHI Diffusion at 0 after just 3 of 7 bearish paw-prints → zero equity exposure / cash",
              "evidence": "Disclosed rule",
              "status": "Risk-off cash advice"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Reflections category",
              "evidence": "Article datetime",
              "status": "2015-08-25T17:23:00-0400"
            },
            {
              "detail": "No machine-readable series or chart/PDF payload",
              "evidence": "Native span",
              "status": "20-trading-day plunge + Jun–Sep 2015 component camps"
            },
            {
              "detail": "4015-day article-to-crawl interval is archive delay only",
              "evidence": "Publication lag",
              "status": "unknown"
            },
            {
              "detail": "de-trended CMHI and Seven Paw-prints pages remain distinct inventory rows",
              "evidence": "Related identity",
              "status": "Not substituted"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Insufficient evidence — disclosed cash advice without pinned series or complete execution semantics",
              "evidence": "Registry action",
              "status": "Not registered"
            }
          ]
        },
        "title": "What the snapshot proves",
        "type": "evidence_table"
      }
    ]
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z",
  "id": "1359",
  "schema_id": "experiments/v1",
  "schema_version": 1
}