RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500: no executable series
Insufficient evidence 1349 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 inventory row be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed rules?
No playable series. The SHA-verified September 4, 2019 article describes support/resistance trend tracking and dynamically mapped historical reversal probabilities, with top/bottom probability context, STOP, p(n), and p(n+1) labels. It contains no source-linked observations, exact formula, threshold/state mapping, recurring publication lag, or portfolio action rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Research narrative
Plain-language result
This is a source-described trend and reversal-probability concept, not a ready-to-run indicator. The page explains support and resistance, historical probability mapping, and chart labels, but does not supply the numbers or a trade rule.
Why no chart or overlay is shown
The checked-in row has no machine-readable TRENDEX series and its referenced PRO chart image is not a target-page asset. Showing reconstructed probabilities, signals, or an equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied.
Causal reading
The article timestamp and archive fetch establish provenance only. Any future overlay must use point-in-time input availability and execute at least one available bar later; unknown values remain unavailable.
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 80,141 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22 |
| Disclosed rule | Conceptual | Support/resistance trend tracking with dynamically mapped historical reversal probabilities |
| Probability labels | Described | p(n) is the last-day probability; p(n+1) is tomorrow's conditional probability if the black line is not crossed |
| Native span | Narrative only | Article dated 2019-09-04; no source-linked daily observations or probability history |
| Publication lag | Unknown | 2,544.372604-day archival interval is snapshot delay, not model release lag |
| Signal series | Unavailable | No machine-readable TRENDEX values or target-page asset rows |
| Causal overlay | Policy only | Timestamped point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported |
| Disposition | Insufficient evidence | Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated |
The public page reports source-derived evidence and negative boundaries without fabricating TRENDEX observations, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.
Stats
| CAGR | — | Sharpe | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | — | maxDD | — |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed TRENDEX concept, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked TRENDEX daily observations, support/resistance values, trend states/counts, probability history, or native numeric span is disclosed. No exact support/resistance, trend-count, reversal-probability, or state-transition formula is provided. No probability cutoff, black-line crossing tolerance, STOP calculation, persistence, confirmation, or action mapping is defined. No recurring calculation/release calendar, publication clock, timezone, point-in-time cutoff, vintage, or revision policy is pinned. No target instrument, allocation, rebalance, holding period, cost, slippage, exit, or re-entry rule is disclosed. Referenced PRO chart/image bytes are not target-page assets and are not redistributed; no chart-pixel transcription or proxy is used. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, chart/image bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, nonce-bearing URLs, and private account data.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 no executable series" --body "Follow-up to 1349: Can the distinct RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 inventory row be reproduced as a " --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"