{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1349-analysis.html", "answer": "No playable series. The SHA-verified September 4, 2019 article describes support/resistance trend tracking and dynamically mapped historical reversal probabilities, with top/bottom probability context, STOP, p(n), and p(n+1) labels. It contains no source-linked observations, exact formula, threshold/state mapping, recurring publication lag, or portfolio action rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.", "bead_ids": [ "1349" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": null, "date": "2026-08-29", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed TRENDEX concept, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.", "equity": { "experiment": [], "labels": [], "spy": [], "spy_labels": [] }, "errors": "No source-linked TRENDEX daily observations, support/resistance values, trend states/counts, probability history, or native numeric span is disclosed. No exact support/resistance, trend-count, reversal-probability, or state-transition formula is provided. No probability cutoff, black-line crossing tolerance, STOP calculation, persistence, confirmation, or action mapping is defined. No recurring calculation/release calendar, publication clock, timezone, point-in-time cutoff, vintage, or revision policy is pinned. No target instrument, allocation, rebalance, holding period, cost, slippage, exit, or re-entry rule is disclosed. Referenced PRO chart/image bytes are not target-page assets and are not redistributed; no chart-pixel transcription or proxy is used. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, chart/image bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, nonce-bearing URLs, and private account data.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "deferred", "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 no executable series\" --body \"Follow-up to 1349: Can the distinct RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 inventory row be reproduced as a \" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 no executable series\" --body \"Follow-up to 1349: Can the distinct RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 inventory row be reproduced as a \" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1349", "issue_ids": [ "1349" ], "monthly": { "as": [], "labels": [], "ours": [] }, "page": "experiments/1349.html", "performance": { "cagr": 0.0, "max_drawdown": 0.0, "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.", "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly", "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "volatility": null }, "provenance": { "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-trendex-sp500.json", "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_trendex_sp500.py", "finding": "research/findings/1349.md", "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1349.json", "tearsheet": null }, "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500 inventory row be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed rules?", "safe_withdrawal": null, "signalSeries": null, "signals": [], "slug": "1349", "stats": { "cagr": 0.0, "canonical_asset_rows": 6, "canonical_series_observations": 0, "economic_publication_lag": "unknown", "executable_signal_rows": 0, "fail_closed_gaps": 10, "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true, "manifest_digest_verified": true, "maxDD": 0.0, "observed_article_to_snapshot_days": 2544.372604166667, "page_content_length": 80141, "playable": false, "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "source_body_digest_verified": true, "target_page_asset_rows": 0, "target_workbook_asset_rows": 0 }, "status": "insufficient_evidence", "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence", "supplemental": { "article_date": "2019-09-04", "article_timestamp": "2019-09-04T10:50:10-0400", "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:46:43Z", "causal_policy": "Article and archive timestamps are not input-availability timestamps; future overlays require documented point-in-time inputs and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported.", "decision": "insufficient_evidence", "indicator_id": "recessionalert-trendex-sp500", "native_span": "Single dated narrative article; no source-linked TRENDEX observation series or probability history.", "public_boundary": "Publish title, redacted source location, hashes, disclosed rule phrases, timing metadata, causal policy, and gaps only; do not publish raw snapshot, PRO media, unverified series, or private data.", "publication_lag": "2,544.372604-day article-to-snapshot interval observed; actual TRENDEX calculation/release lag unknown.", "registered": false, "registry_action": "none", "research_narrative": [ { "heading": "Plain-language result", "text": "This is a source-described trend and reversal-probability concept, not a ready-to-run indicator. The page explains support and resistance, historical probability mapping, and chart labels, but does not supply the numbers or a trade rule." }, { "heading": "Why no chart or overlay is shown", "text": "The checked-in row has no machine-readable TRENDEX series and its referenced PRO chart image is not a target-page asset. Showing reconstructed probabilities, signals, or an equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied." }, { "heading": "Causal reading", "text": "The article timestamp and archive fetch establish provenance only. Any future overlay must use point-in-time input availability and execute at least one available bar later; unknown values remain unavailable." } ], "source_sha256": "sha256:0847fa3d8bd7a9dc74a9e07e000ec338362ad84c743b57d710fab8f5d4b8119c" }, "tax_analysis": null, "taxable_stats": null, "title": "RecessionAlert TRENDEX SP-500: no executable series", "trading_costs": null, "verify": { "as_cagr": null, "as_stats": null, "cagr_delta": null, "gates": null, "last_verify_at": null, "monthly_bias": null, "monthly_corr": null, "monthly_mae": null, "n_months": null, "ours_cagr": 0.0, "ours_stats": { "ann_return": 0.0, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0 }, "passed": null, "status": "not_applicable", "verify_status": null }, "visualizations": [ { "data": { "note": "The public page reports source-derived evidence and negative boundaries without fabricating TRENDEX observations, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.", "rows": [ { "detail": "80,141 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22", "evidence": "Canonical page body", "status": "SHA-verified" }, { "detail": "Support/resistance trend tracking with dynamically mapped historical reversal probabilities", "evidence": "Disclosed rule", "status": "Conceptual" }, { "detail": "p(n) is the last-day probability; p(n+1) is tomorrow's conditional probability if the black line is not crossed", "evidence": "Probability labels", "status": "Described" }, { "detail": "Article dated 2019-09-04; no source-linked daily observations or probability history", "evidence": "Native span", "status": "Narrative only" }, { "detail": "2,544.372604-day archival interval is snapshot delay, not model release lag", "evidence": "Publication lag", "status": "Unknown" }, { "detail": "No machine-readable TRENDEX values or target-page asset rows", "evidence": "Signal series", "status": "Unavailable" }, { "detail": "Timestamped point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported", "evidence": "Causal overlay", "status": "Policy only" }, { "detail": "Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated", "evidence": "Disposition", "status": "Insufficient evidence" } ] }, "title": "What the snapshot proves", "type": "evidence_table" } ] }, "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z", "id": "1349", "schema_id": "experiments/v1", "schema_version": 1 }