RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index: no executable series
Insufficient evidence 1348 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index row be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed rules?
No playable series. The SHA-verified February 23, 2016 page describes a weekly WLEI growth index built from more than 20 weekly time series across six broad categories, with claimed Thursday-afternoon publication and at most a one-week data lag, but it contains no source-linked observations, exact component formula, threshold/state mapping, or portfolio action rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Research narrative
Plain-language result
This is a documented weekly macro gauge, not a ready-to-run trading indicator. The article names broad WLEI components and timing claims, but does not provide observations or an action rule.
What can be reproduced
The page digest, article date, six named component categories, weekly cadence, Thursday timing claim, crawl revisions, zero target-page assets, and absence of a source-linked series are reproducible from the checked-in snapshot.
Why no chart or overlay is shown
No exact formula, component data, threshold, state mapping, or portfolio rule exists in the source-linked payload. Reconstructing a series or equity curve would imply data and semantics the source never supplied.
Causal reading
The article's at-most-one-week and Thursday-afternoon statements are source claims, not complete point-in-time release metadata. Unknown dates and revisions remain unavailable, and any future overlay must execute at least one available bar later.
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 86,958 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22; full digest matches manifest, inventory prefix, and read-only SQLite body |
| Disclosed construction | Concept only | Weekly growth index from more than 20 weekly time series across six named categories; no formula or weights |
| Native span | Undisclosed | One dated article; its seven-year subscriber in-sample claim is not a pinned observation series |
| Publication lag | Unknown | Source claims at most one-week data lag and Thursday-afternoon publication; archive interval is not release lag |
| Chart/workbook payload | Unavailable | Target page has zero asset rows; six XLSX assets belong to the separate excel-data page |
| Causal overlay | Policy only | Require point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported |
| Disposition | Insufficient evidence | Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated |
Narrative source content is reported without fabricating observations, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.
Stats
| CAGR | — | Sharpe | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | — | maxDD | — |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed WLEI concept, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked machine-readable WLEI component or composite observations or native observation span are pinned. Exact component membership, transformations, weights, normalization, growth/lookback window, initialization, and score range are undisclosed. Smoothing, equal-value treatment, stale/missing/revised-input behavior, and unavailable-state transitions are undisclosed. Recurring weekly release calendar, publication clock, timezone, point-in-time cutoff, vintage, and revision policy are absent. No buy/sell/hold or risk-on/risk-off mapping, threshold, persistence, confirmation, target instrument, allocation, rebalance, exit, re-entry, costs, or slippage is disclosed. No independent recession/market outcome window can validate the source's timeliness or false-positive claims. Referenced chart/image bytes are absent from target-page assets; adjacent XLSX assets are unlinked and not merged. No executable signal history, equity curve, or market-overlay metric is emitted. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, chart/image/workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, and private account data.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index no executable s" --body "Follow-up to 1348: Can the distinct RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index row be reproduced " --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"