{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1348-analysis.html", "answer": "No playable series. The SHA-verified February 23, 2016 page describes a weekly WLEI growth index built from more than 20 weekly time series across six broad categories, with claimed Thursday-afternoon publication and at most a one-week data lag, but it contains no source-linked observations, exact component formula, threshold/state mapping, or portfolio action rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.", "bead_ids": [ "1348" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": null, "date": "2026-08-29", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed WLEI concept, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.", "equity": { "experiment": [], "labels": [], "spy": [], "spy_labels": [] }, "errors": "No source-linked machine-readable WLEI component or composite observations or native observation span are pinned. Exact component membership, transformations, weights, normalization, growth/lookback window, initialization, and score range are undisclosed. Smoothing, equal-value treatment, stale/missing/revised-input behavior, and unavailable-state transitions are undisclosed. Recurring weekly release calendar, publication clock, timezone, point-in-time cutoff, vintage, and revision policy are absent. No buy/sell/hold or risk-on/risk-off mapping, threshold, persistence, confirmation, target instrument, allocation, rebalance, exit, re-entry, costs, or slippage is disclosed. No independent recession/market outcome window can validate the source's timeliness or false-positive claims. Referenced chart/image bytes are absent from target-page assets; adjacent XLSX assets are unlinked and not merged. No executable signal history, equity curve, or market-overlay metric is emitted. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, chart/image/workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, and private account data.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "deferred", "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index no executable s\" --body \"Follow-up to 1348: Can the distinct RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index row be reproduced \" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index no executable s\" --body \"Follow-up to 1348: Can the distinct RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index row be reproduced \" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1348", "issue_ids": [ "1348" ], "monthly": { "as": [], "labels": [], "ours": [] }, "page": "experiments/1348.html", "performance": { "cagr": 0.0, "max_drawdown": 0.0, "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.", "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly", "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "volatility": null }, "provenance": { "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-weekly-leading-economic-index.json", "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_weekly_leading_economic_index.py", "finding": "research/findings/1348.md", "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1348.json", "tearsheet": null }, "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index row be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed rules?", "safe_withdrawal": null, "signalSeries": null, "signals": [], "slug": "1348", "stats": { "cagr": 0.0, "canonical_asset_rows": 6, "canonical_series_observations": 0, "economic_publication_lag": "unknown", "executable_signal_rows": 0, "fail_closed_gaps": 9, "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true, "manifest_digest_verified": true, "maxDD": 0.0, "observed_article_to_snapshot_days": 3833.1135648148147, "page_content_length": 86958, "playable": false, "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "source_body_digest_verified": true, "target_chart_asset_rows": 0, "target_workbook_asset_rows": 0 }, "status": "insufficient_evidence", "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence", "supplemental": { "article_date": "2016-02-23", "article_timestamp": "2016-02-23T16:01:55-0500", "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:45:27Z", "causal_policy": "Article timestamp is not an input cutoff; future overlays require documented point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close unsupported", "decision": "insufficient_evidence", "indicator_id": "recessionalert-weekly-leading-economic-index", "native_span": "Single dated HTML article; no source-linked observation series", "publication_lag": "Source claims at most one-week data lag and Thursday-afternoon publication; actual point-in-time WLEI release lag unknown", "registered": false, "registry_action": "none", "research_narrative": [ { "heading": "Plain-language result", "text": "This is a documented weekly macro gauge, not a ready-to-run trading indicator. The article names broad WLEI components and timing claims, but does not provide observations or an action rule." }, { "heading": "What can be reproduced", "text": "The page digest, article date, six named component categories, weekly cadence, Thursday timing claim, crawl revisions, zero target-page assets, and absence of a source-linked series are reproducible from the checked-in snapshot." }, { "heading": "Why no chart or overlay is shown", "text": "No exact formula, component data, threshold, state mapping, or portfolio rule exists in the source-linked payload. Reconstructing a series or equity curve would imply data and semantics the source never supplied." }, { "heading": "Causal reading", "text": "The article's at-most-one-week and Thursday-afternoon statements are source claims, not complete point-in-time release metadata. Unknown dates and revisions remain unavailable, and any future overlay must execute at least one available bar later." } ], "site_section": "other_indicators", "source_sha256": "sha256:e81b7ab63069f9cbc94b4a57a526b55b69c32580e11801b1b2a09ba8f806f9fe" }, "tax_analysis": null, "taxable_stats": null, "title": "RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index: no executable series", "trading_costs": null, "verify": { "as_cagr": null, "as_stats": null, "cagr_delta": null, "gates": null, "last_verify_at": null, "monthly_bias": null, "monthly_corr": null, "monthly_mae": null, "n_months": null, "ours_cagr": 0.0, "ours_stats": { "ann_return": 0.0, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0 }, "passed": null, "status": "not_applicable", "verify_status": null }, "visualizations": [ { "data": { "note": "Narrative source content is reported without fabricating observations, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.", "rows": [ { "detail": "86,958 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22; full digest matches manifest, inventory prefix, and read-only SQLite body", "evidence": "Canonical page body", "status": "SHA-verified" }, { "detail": "Weekly growth index from more than 20 weekly time series across six named categories; no formula or weights", "evidence": "Disclosed construction", "status": "Concept only" }, { "detail": "One dated article; its seven-year subscriber in-sample claim is not a pinned observation series", "evidence": "Native span", "status": "Undisclosed" }, { "detail": "Source claims at most one-week data lag and Thursday-afternoon publication; archive interval is not release lag", "evidence": "Publication lag", "status": "Unknown" }, { "detail": "Target page has zero asset rows; six XLSX assets belong to the separate excel-data page", "evidence": "Chart/workbook payload", "status": "Unavailable" }, { "detail": "Require point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported", "evidence": "Causal overlay", "status": "Policy only" }, { "detail": "Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated", "evidence": "Disposition", "status": "Insufficient evidence" } ] }, "title": "What the snapshot proves", "type": "evidence_table" } ] }, "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z", "id": "1348", "schema_id": "experiments/v1", "schema_version": 1 }