RecessionAlert RFD: no executable series
Insufficient evidence 1346 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert MODELS: A Recession Forecasting Diffusion (RFD) inventory row be reproduced as a playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed data or execution rules?
No playable series. The SHA-verified March 18, 2022 page describes a fifteen-model recession diffusion ranging from 0 to 15 and a documented warning trigger above five (at least six models in recession), with an approximately six-month lead objective. The checked-in snapshot has no source-linked RFD observations, component histories/formulas, captured workbook/chart payload, measurable release lag, or executable buy/sell/hold mapping. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Research narrative
Plain-language result
RFD is a source-described recession-warning gauge, not a ready-to-run market signal in this snapshot. It counts fifteen models and flags a high reading above five, but the underlying values are not captured.
Why no chart or overlay is shown
The checked-in row contains no machine-readable RFD series or target-page asset rows. Reconstructing a chart, signal history, or equity curve would require inventing component data and rules the source never supplied.
Causal reading
The article timestamp and archive fetch are not release timestamps. Any future overlay must use verified point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later; unknown dates and values remain unavailable.
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 91,931 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22 |
| Disclosed indicator rule | Reproducible text | Fifteen-model recession count, RFD range 0–15, warning threshold RFD > 5 |
| Native span | Undisclosed | Article date is not an observation start; zero source-linked observations |
| Publication lag | Unknown | 1,618-day archive interval is snapshot delay, not RFD release lag |
| Signal series | Unavailable | No machine-readable RFD observations, component states, or target-page asset rows |
| Causal overlay | Policy only | Verified point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close unsupported |
| Disposition | Insufficient evidence | Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated |
Narrative source content is reported without fabricating RFD data, component thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.
Stats
| CAGR | — | Sharpe | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | — | maxDD | — |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish gap report and results changelog only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked RFD observations, component state histories, or captured Monthly PRO workbook are present. No exact component identifiers, formulas, recession thresholds, state encodings, or missing-input policy is disclosed. No source-linked native span, synchronized cutoff, release calendar, publication clock, point-in-time availability, vintage, or revision policy is pinned. No complete buy/sell/hold mapping, target instrument, allocation, rebalance, holding, cost, slippage, exit, re-entry, or transition rule is disclosed. The six-month lead, probability, variability, and zero-error statements are source claims without independent observations or an outcome series. The referenced RFD chart GIFs have no canonical target-page asset rows and their bytes are not republished. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, GIF/chart bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, nonce-bearing URLs, and private account data.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert RFD no executable series" --body "Follow-up to 1346: Can the distinct RecessionAlert MODELS: A Recession Forecasting Diffusion (RFD) " --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"