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    "answer": "No playable series. The SHA-verified March 18, 2022 page describes a fifteen-model recession diffusion ranging from 0 to 15 and a documented warning trigger above five (at least six models in recession), with an approximately six-month lead objective. The checked-in snapshot has no source-linked RFD observations, component histories/formulas, captured workbook/chart payload, measurable release lag, or executable buy/sell/hold mapping. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.",
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    "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish gap report and results changelog only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.",
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    "errors": "No source-linked RFD observations, component state histories, or captured Monthly PRO workbook are present. No exact component identifiers, formulas, recession thresholds, state encodings, or missing-input policy is disclosed. No source-linked native span, synchronized cutoff, release calendar, publication clock, point-in-time availability, vintage, or revision policy is pinned. No complete buy/sell/hold mapping, target instrument, allocation, rebalance, holding, cost, slippage, exit, re-entry, or transition rule is disclosed. The six-month lead, probability, variability, and zero-error statements are source claims without independent observations or an outcome series. The referenced RFD chart GIFs have no canonical target-page asset rows and their bytes are not republished. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, GIF/chart bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, nonce-bearing URLs, and private account data.",
    "follow_on": [
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        "status": "deferred",
        "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed"
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    "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert RFD no executable series\" --body \"Follow-up to 1346: Can the distinct RecessionAlert MODELS: A Recession Forecasting Diffusion (RFD) \" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"",
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      ],
      "yLabel": "Indicator value"
    },
    "signals": [],
    "slug": "1346",
    "stats": {
      "cagr": 0.0,
      "canonical_asset_rows": 6,
      "canonical_series_observations": 0,
      "economic_publication_lag": "unknown",
      "executable_signal_rows": 0,
      "fail_closed_gaps": 10,
      "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true,
      "manifest_digest_verified": true,
      "maxDD": 0.0,
      "observed_article_to_snapshot_days": 1618,
      "page_content_length": 91931,
      "playable": false,
      "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2,
      "sharpe": 0.0,
      "sortino": 0.0,
      "source_body_digest_verified": true,
      "target_page_asset_rows": 0
    },
    "status": "insufficient_evidence",
    "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence",
    "supplemental": {
      "article_date": "2022-03-18",
      "article_timestamp": "2022-03-18T11:27:57-0400",
      "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:48:08Z",
      "causal_policy": "Article and archive dates are not input availability timestamps; future overlays require documented point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close unsupported",
      "decision": "insufficient_evidence",
      "destination": "other_indicators",
      "indicator_id": "recessionalert-rfd",
      "native_span": "Single dated article snapshot; monthly PRO data context named but no observation series or first/last date supplied",
      "publication_lag": "1,618-day snapshot interval observed; underlying RFD publication/release lag unknown",
      "registered": false,
      "registry_action": "none",
      "research_narrative": [
        {
          "heading": "Plain-language result",
          "text": "RFD is a source-described recession-warning gauge, not a ready-to-run market signal in this snapshot. It counts fifteen models and flags a high reading above five, but the underlying values are not captured."
        },
        {
          "heading": "Why no chart or overlay is shown",
          "text": "The checked-in row contains no machine-readable RFD series or target-page asset rows. Reconstructing a chart, signal history, or equity curve would require inventing component data and rules the source never supplied."
        },
        {
          "heading": "Causal reading",
          "text": "The article timestamp and archive fetch are not release timestamps. Any future overlay must use verified point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later; unknown dates and values remain unavailable."
        }
      ],
      "signal_side": "risk_warning_only; no disclosed buy-only, sell-only, or dual-sided trade behavior",
      "source_sha256": "sha256:e705e5996621202e0e72744fdf229c4a15a8d85d1de3eff8427c7ac76bd99066"
    },
    "tax_analysis": {
      "ltcg_pct": null,
      "note": "Experiment parity stub: no taxable wrapper; see strategy tax_analysis for methodology",
      "schema_id": "tax-analysis/v1",
      "stcg_pct": null
    },
    "taxable_stats": null,
    "title": "RecessionAlert RFD: no executable series",
    "trading_costs": {
      "avg_daily_turnover": 0.00866,
      "avg_yearly_fees": 0.002182,
      "basis": "daily_engine",
      "cost_bps_one_way": 10.0,
      "fee_bps": 10.0,
      "n_bars": 286,
      "schema_id": "trading-costs/v1",
      "slippage_bps": 0.0,
      "total_costs": 0.002476
    },
    "verify": {
      "as_cagr": null,
      "as_stats": null,
      "cagr_delta": null,
      "gates": null,
      "last_verify_at": null,
      "monthly_bias": null,
      "monthly_corr": null,
      "monthly_mae": null,
      "n_months": null,
      "ours_cagr": 0.0,
      "ours_stats": {
        "ann_return": 0.0,
        "sharpe": 0.0,
        "sortino": 0.0
      },
      "passed": null,
      "status": "not_applicable",
      "verify_status": null
    },
    "visualizations": [
      {
        "data": {
          "note": "Narrative source content is reported without fabricating RFD data, component thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.",
          "rows": [
            {
              "detail": "91,931 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22",
              "evidence": "Canonical page body",
              "status": "SHA-verified"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Fifteen-model recession count, RFD range 0–15, warning threshold RFD > 5",
              "evidence": "Disclosed indicator rule",
              "status": "Reproducible text"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Article date is not an observation start; zero source-linked observations",
              "evidence": "Native span",
              "status": "Undisclosed"
            },
            {
              "detail": "1,618-day archive interval is snapshot delay, not RFD release lag",
              "evidence": "Publication lag",
              "status": "Unknown"
            },
            {
              "detail": "No machine-readable RFD observations, component states, or target-page asset rows",
              "evidence": "Signal series",
              "status": "Unavailable"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Verified point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close unsupported",
              "evidence": "Causal overlay",
              "status": "Policy only"
            },
            {
              "detail": "Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated",
              "evidence": "Disposition",
              "status": "Insufficient evidence"
            }
          ]
        },
        "title": "What the snapshot proves",
        "type": "evidence_table"
      }
    ]
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z",
  "id": "1346",
  "schema_id": "experiments/v1",
  "schema_version": 1
}