RecessionAlert Recession Fear Indicator: no executable series
Insufficient evidence 1345 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert A Recession Fear Indicator inventory row be reproduced as a playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed rules?
No playable series. The SHA-verified March 6, 2012 article describes Google global search volume for recession as a promising indicator and fear gauge, with contextual 2008 and 2011 observations, but no machine-readable Fear series, reproducible query configuration, native span, publication lag, threshold, or executable buy/sell/hold mapping. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Research narrative
Plain-language result
This is a source-described fear gauge, not a ready-to-run indicator. It uses Google search interest for recession, but the page supplies no downloadable observations or trading rule.
Why no chart or overlay is shown
The checked-in row has no machine-readable Fear series and its linked GIFs are not canonical asset rows. Showing a reconstructed series or equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied.
Causal reading
The article date is the only disclosed source timing. Any future overlay must use point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later; unknown dates remain unavailable.
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 83,313 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22 |
| Disclosed input | Google search volume | Global search volume for the term recession |
| Native span | Undisclosed | Article says history does not go further back; no observations pinned |
| Publication lag | Unknown | 5,282-day archival interval is snapshot delay, not release lag |
| Signal series | Unavailable | No machine-readable Fear observations or target-page asset rows |
| Causal overlay | Policy only | Verified point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close unsupported |
| Disposition | Insufficient evidence | Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated |
Narrative source content is reported without fabricating Google Trends data, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.
Stats
| CAGR | — | Sharpe | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | — | maxDD | — |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish gap report and results changelog only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked Google Trends observations, query configuration, or native historical span is disclosed. No cadence, release calendar, publication clock, timezone, point-in-time availability, or revision policy is pinned. No threshold, normalization, boolean/fraction mapping, buy/sell/hold state, target instrument, sizing, rebalance, cost, exit, or re-entry rule is disclosed. The mentioned SuperIndex relationship and the two linked GIF visualizations have no reproducible formula or captured target-page asset rows. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, GIF bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, nonce-bearing URLs, and private account data.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert Recession Fear Indicator no executable series" --body "Follow-up to 1345: Can the distinct RecessionAlert A Recession Fear Indicator inventory row be repr" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"