{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1345-analysis.html", "answer": "No playable series. The SHA-verified March 6, 2012 article describes Google global search volume for recession as a promising indicator and fear gauge, with contextual 2008 and 2011 observations, but no machine-readable Fear series, reproducible query configuration, native span, publication lag, threshold, or executable buy/sell/hold mapping. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.", "bead_ids": [ "1345" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": null, "date": "2026-08-29", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish gap report and results changelog only; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.", "equity": { "experiment": [], "labels": [], "spy": [], "spy_labels": [] }, "errors": "No source-linked Google Trends observations, query configuration, or native historical span is disclosed. No cadence, release calendar, publication clock, timezone, point-in-time availability, or revision policy is pinned. No threshold, normalization, boolean/fraction mapping, buy/sell/hold state, target instrument, sizing, rebalance, cost, exit, or re-entry rule is disclosed. The mentioned SuperIndex relationship and the two linked GIF visualizations have no reproducible formula or captured target-page asset rows. Public outputs exclude cached HTML, GIF bytes, workbook bytes, credentials, cookies, nonce-bearing URLs, and private account data.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "deferred", "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Recession Fear Indicator no executable series\" --body \"Follow-up to 1345: Can the distinct RecessionAlert A Recession Fear Indicator inventory row be repr\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert Recession Fear Indicator no executable series\" --body \"Follow-up to 1345: Can the distinct RecessionAlert A Recession Fear Indicator inventory row be repr\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1345", "issue_ids": [ "1345" ], "monthly": { "as": [], "labels": [], "ours": [] }, "page": "experiments/1345.html", "performance": { "cagr": 0.0, "max_drawdown": 0.0, "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.", "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly", "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "volatility": null }, "provenance": { "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-fear-indicator.json", "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_fear_indicator.py", "finding": "research/findings/1345.md", "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1345.json", "tearsheet": null }, "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert A Recession Fear Indicator inventory row be reproduced as a playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed rules?", "safe_withdrawal": null, "signalSeries": null, "signals": [], "slug": "1345", "stats": { "cagr": 0.0, "canonical_asset_rows": 6, "canonical_series_observations": 0, "economic_publication_lag": "unknown", "executable_signal_rows": 0, "fail_closed_gaps": 11, "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true, "manifest_digest_verified": true, "maxDD": 0.0, "observed_article_to_snapshot_days": 5282, "page_content_length": 83313, "playable": false, "same_url_crawl_vintages": 5, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "source_body_digest_verified": true, "target_page_asset_rows": 0 }, "status": "insufficient_evidence", "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence", "supplemental": { "article_date": "2012-03-06", "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:39:13Z", "causal_policy": "Article date is not an input availability timestamp; future overlays require documented point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close unsupported", "decision": "insufficient_evidence", "indicator_id": "recessionalert-fear-indicator", "native_span": "single dated article snapshot; source says history does not go further back; no observation series", "publication_lag": "5,282-day snapshot interval observed; actual Google Trends publication/release lag unknown", "registered": false, "registry_action": "none", "research_narrative": [ { "heading": "Plain-language result", "text": "This is a source-described fear gauge, not a ready-to-run indicator. It uses Google search interest for recession, but the page supplies no downloadable observations or trading rule." }, { "heading": "Why no chart or overlay is shown", "text": "The checked-in row has no machine-readable Fear series and its linked GIFs are not canonical asset rows. Showing a reconstructed series or equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied." }, { "heading": "Causal reading", "text": "The article date is the only disclosed source timing. Any future overlay must use point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later; unknown dates remain unavailable." } ], "source_sha256": "sha256:2cb8464ee21e8b28af0f8dcbf7bacbd3ddeffc040c53717a198c0b701fa019dd" }, "tax_analysis": null, "taxable_stats": null, "title": "RecessionAlert Recession Fear Indicator: no executable series", "trading_costs": null, "verify": { "as_cagr": null, "as_stats": null, "cagr_delta": null, "gates": null, "last_verify_at": null, "monthly_bias": null, "monthly_corr": null, "monthly_mae": null, "n_months": null, "ours_cagr": 0.0, "ours_stats": { "ann_return": 0.0, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0 }, "passed": null, "status": "not_applicable", "verify_status": null }, "visualizations": [ { "data": { "note": "Narrative source content is reported without fabricating Google Trends data, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.", "rows": [ { "detail": "83,313 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22", "evidence": "Canonical page body", "status": "SHA-verified" }, { "detail": "Global search volume for the term recession", "evidence": "Disclosed input", "status": "Google search volume" }, { "detail": "Article says history does not go further back; no observations pinned", "evidence": "Native span", "status": "Undisclosed" }, { "detail": "5,282-day archival interval is snapshot delay, not release lag", "evidence": "Publication lag", "status": "Unknown" }, { "detail": "No machine-readable Fear observations or target-page asset rows", "evidence": "Signal series", "status": "Unavailable" }, { "detail": "Verified point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close unsupported", "evidence": "Causal overlay", "status": "Policy only" }, { "detail": "Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, or market metric fabricated", "evidence": "Disposition", "status": "Insufficient evidence" } ] }, "title": "What the snapshot proves", "type": "evidence_table" } ] }, "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z", "id": "1345", "schema_id": "experiments/v1", "schema_version": 1 }