RecessionAlert monthly leading US index: no executable series
Insufficient evidence 1344 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'A new monthly leading US index' be independently replicated from the checked-in offline snapshot into a playable Other-indicators signal without inventing undisclosed rules or data?
No playable series. The SHA-verified March 3, 2016 article lists 23 monthly components, four recession-probability interpretations, a preferred average of the highest two probabilities, and Long-/Short-leading views, but provides no source-linked observations, complete transformations, release lag, or portfolio execution rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with public provenance and gap evidence only.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Research narrative
Plain-language result
This is a qualitative monthly leading-index and recession-probability article, not a ready-to-run indicator. It names 23 monthly components and a preferred average of the highest two probabilities, but does not provide the source series or a trading rule.
What can be reproduced
The page identity, full SHA256, article date, two crawl vintages, disclosed component list, probability-model description, and absence of target-page assets are verified from the read-only snapshot.
Why no chart or overlay is shown
The checked-in row has no machine-readable component, composite, or probability history, no complete threshold/state mapping, and no measurable release clock. Showing a reconstructed series or equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied.
Causal reading
The article date is the only disclosed cutoff. The archival interval is not publication lag; any future overlay must use point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later. Unknown inputs remain unavailable.
Web exception
An interactive buy/sell control would be misleading while the source lacks observations, transformations, thresholds, and release timing. The supported public path is the static visual evidence table and offline notebook; reconsider only after separately authorized, source-linked redistributable data arrives.
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 85,937 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:deedcf22d1d280248542375b8093cf84c98462b27f8eb4f92d09c0d5e1c8b246 |
| Disclosed rule | Narrative only | 23 monthly component entries; four recession-probability interpretations; preferred average of the highest two probabilities; Long-/Short-leading views |
| Native span | Single article snapshot | Article date 2016-03-03; in-body state through January 2016; no source-linked component or probability observations |
| Publication lag | Unknown | 3,824-day article-to-crawl interval is archival snapshot delay, not economic-data release lag |
| Signal series | Unavailable | No source-linked observations, numeric threshold/state mapping, or target-page asset rows |
| Causal overlay | Policy only | Point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported |
| Disposition | Insufficient evidence | Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, proxy, or source-claim metric fabricated |
Narrative source content is reported without fabricating component data, model outputs, thresholds, signals, market metrics, portfolio actions, or raw media.
Stats
| CAGR | — | Sharpe | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | — | maxDD | — |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish the public-safe evidence and gap report; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked observations or native historical span for the 23 numbered components or claimed 21-component derived views. No exact component identifiers, units, transformations, membership, direction, or reconciliation of the 21-versus-23 discrepancy. No composite formula, component weights, score range, normalization, or missing-input handling. No definitions or source-linked outputs for the four recession-probability model interpretations. No exact highest-two averaging behavior for ties, missing models, or probability calibration. No numeric thresholds, signal states, persistence, confirmation, smoothing, or unavailable-state behavior. No recurring monthly release calendar, publication clock, timezone, synchronized cutoff, or point-in-time availability. No vintage, revision, backfill, or stale-data policy for components and derived models. No buy/sell/hold mapping, target instrument, investable universe, sizing, rebalance, holding period, costs, or slippage. No exit, re-entry, or execution timing rules. No source-linked recession/market outcome history or independent validation window for the article's warning claims. Referenced chart/report payloads are not present as target assets and raw bytes are not redistributed. No defensible related-page proxy, synthetic extension, or constituent rebuild preserving this distinct identity; public outputs exclude credentials, cookies, and private account data.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert monthly leading US index no executable series" --body "Follow-up to 1344: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'A new monthly leading US index' b" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"