{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1344-analysis.html", "answer": "No playable series. The SHA-verified March 3, 2016 article lists 23 monthly components, four recession-probability interpretations, a preferred average of the highest two probabilities, and Long-/Short-leading views, but provides no source-linked observations, complete transformations, release lag, or portfolio execution rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with public provenance and gap evidence only.", "bead_ids": [ "1344" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": null, "date": "2026-08-29", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish the public-safe evidence and gap report; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.", "equity": { "experiment": [], "labels": [], "spy": [], "spy_labels": [] }, "errors": "No source-linked observations or native historical span for the 23 numbered components or claimed 21-component derived views. No exact component identifiers, units, transformations, membership, direction, or reconciliation of the 21-versus-23 discrepancy. No composite formula, component weights, score range, normalization, or missing-input handling. No definitions or source-linked outputs for the four recession-probability model interpretations. No exact highest-two averaging behavior for ties, missing models, or probability calibration. No numeric thresholds, signal states, persistence, confirmation, smoothing, or unavailable-state behavior. No recurring monthly release calendar, publication clock, timezone, synchronized cutoff, or point-in-time availability. No vintage, revision, backfill, or stale-data policy for components and derived models. No buy/sell/hold mapping, target instrument, investable universe, sizing, rebalance, holding period, costs, or slippage. No exit, re-entry, or execution timing rules. No source-linked recession/market outcome history or independent validation window for the article's warning claims. Referenced chart/report payloads are not present as target assets and raw bytes are not redistributed. No defensible related-page proxy, synthetic extension, or constituent rebuild preserving this distinct identity; public outputs exclude credentials, cookies, and private account data.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "deferred", "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert monthly leading US index no executable series\" --body \"Follow-up to 1344: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'A new monthly leading US index' b\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert monthly leading US index no executable series\" --body \"Follow-up to 1344: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'A new monthly leading US index' b\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1344", "issue_ids": [ "1344" ], "monthly": { "as": [], "labels": [], "ours": [] }, "page": "experiments/1344.html", "performance": { "cagr": 0.0, "max_drawdown": 0.0, "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.", "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly", "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "volatility": null }, "provenance": { "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-new-monthly-leading-us-index.json", "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_new_monthly_leading_us_index.py", "finding": "research/findings/1344.md", "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1344.json", "tearsheet": null }, "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'A new monthly leading US index' be independently replicated from the checked-in offline snapshot into a playable Other-indicators signal without inventing undisclosed rules or data?", "safe_withdrawal": null, "signalSeries": null, "signals": [], "slug": "1344", "stats": { "article_to_named_update_days": "not computable: no named update date or release clock", "cagr": 0.0, "canonical_asset_rows": 6, "canonical_series_observations": 0, "economic_publication_lag": "unknown; article gives no underlying release timestamp, publication clock, timezone, vintage, or revision policy", "executable_signal_rows": 0, "fail_closed_gaps": 13, "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true, "manifest_digest_verified": true, "maxDD": 0.0, "observed_article_to_fetch_days": 3824, "page_content_length": 85937, "playable": false, "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "source_body_digest_verified": true, "target_media_asset_rows": 0 }, "status": "insufficient_evidence", "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence", "supplemental": { "article_date": "2016-03-03", "article_timestamp": "not disclosed; date precision only", "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:45:29Z", "causal_policy": "Article date is the only disclosed cutoff; future overlays require documented point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close unsupported", "decision": "insufficient_evidence", "indicator_id": "recessionalert-new-monthly-leading-us-index", "native_span": "single dated commentary page; in-body state through January 2016; no source-linked component, composite, probability, or derived series", "public_boundary": "Publish summaries, disclosed rule text, hashes, provenance paths, causal policy, and gap notes only; never raw cached HTML/media/workbook bytes or private account data.", "publication_lag": "unknown; the 3,824-day interval is archival snapshot delay, not economic-data release lag", "registered": false, "registry_action": "none", "research_narrative": [ { "heading": "Plain-language result", "text": "This is a qualitative monthly leading-index and recession-probability article, not a ready-to-run indicator. It names 23 monthly components and a preferred average of the highest two probabilities, but does not provide the source series or a trading rule." }, { "heading": "What can be reproduced", "text": "The page identity, full SHA256, article date, two crawl vintages, disclosed component list, probability-model description, and absence of target-page assets are verified from the read-only snapshot." }, { "heading": "Why no chart or overlay is shown", "text": "The checked-in row has no machine-readable component, composite, or probability history, no complete threshold/state mapping, and no measurable release clock. Showing a reconstructed series or equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied." }, { "heading": "Causal reading", "text": "The article date is the only disclosed cutoff. The archival interval is not publication lag; any future overlay must use point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later. Unknown inputs remain unavailable." }, { "heading": "Web exception", "text": "An interactive buy/sell control would be misleading while the source lacks observations, transformations, thresholds, and release timing. The supported public path is the static visual evidence table and offline notebook; reconsider only after separately authorized, source-linked redistributable data arrives." } ], "site_section": "other_indicators", "source_provenance": { "canonical_asset_rows": 6, "database_path": "data/recessionalert.sqlite", "inventory_path": "research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md", "manifest_path": "research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json", "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2, "target_page_asset_rows": 0 }, "source_sha256": "sha256:deedcf22d1d280248542375b8093cf84c98462b27f8eb4f92d09c0d5e1c8b246" }, "tax_analysis": null, "taxable_stats": null, "title": "RecessionAlert monthly leading US index: no executable series", "trading_costs": null, "verify": { "as_cagr": null, "as_stats": null, "cagr_delta": null, "gates": null, "last_verify_at": null, "monthly_bias": null, "monthly_corr": null, "monthly_mae": null, "n_months": null, "ours_cagr": 0.0, "ours_stats": { "ann_return": 0.0, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0 }, "passed": null, "status": "not_applicable", "verify_status": null }, "visualizations": [ { "data": { "note": "Narrative source content is reported without fabricating component data, model outputs, thresholds, signals, market metrics, portfolio actions, or raw media.", "rows": [ { "detail": "85,937 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:deedcf22d1d280248542375b8093cf84c98462b27f8eb4f92d09c0d5e1c8b246", "evidence": "Canonical page body", "status": "SHA-verified" }, { "detail": "23 monthly component entries; four recession-probability interpretations; preferred average of the highest two probabilities; Long-/Short-leading views", "evidence": "Disclosed rule", "status": "Narrative only" }, { "detail": "Article date 2016-03-03; in-body state through January 2016; no source-linked component or probability observations", "evidence": "Native span", "status": "Single article snapshot" }, { "detail": "3,824-day article-to-crawl interval is archival snapshot delay, not economic-data release lag", "evidence": "Publication lag", "status": "Unknown" }, { "detail": "No source-linked observations, numeric threshold/state mapping, or target-page asset rows", "evidence": "Signal series", "status": "Unavailable" }, { "detail": "Point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close/lookahead unsupported", "evidence": "Causal overlay", "status": "Policy only" }, { "detail": "Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, proxy, or source-claim metric fabricated", "evidence": "Disposition", "status": "Insufficient evidence" } ] }, "title": "What the snapshot proves", "type": "evidence_table" } ] }, "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z", "id": "1344", "schema_id": "experiments/v1", "schema_version": 1 }