RecessionAlert leading U.S.-stock indicator: no executable series
Insufficient evidence 1341 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert leading U.S.-stock indicator row be reproduced as a playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing rules or data?
No playable series. The SHA-verified May 1, 2024 article discloses OECD LEI breadth, central-bank easing breadth, reported 7- and 10-month leads, a 0.57 R-squared claim, monthly report/chart location, and qualitative buy-the-dip context, but no machine-readable observations, exact formula, thresholds, release lag, or portfolio execution rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Research narrative
Plain-language result
This is a useful description of two international breadth ideas, not a ready-to-run indicator. The article says to aggregate them and treats dips as buying opportunities, but it does not provide the underlying observations or a thresholded signal.
Why no overlay is shown
The checked-in row has no machine-readable component history, exact aggregation, or target-page asset payload. Showing a reconstructed series or equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied.
Causal reading
The article timestamp is the only disclosed cutoff. Any future overlay must use point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later; unknown dates remain unavailable.
Web exception
An interactive buy/sell control would be misleading while the source lacks observations, thresholds, and release timing. The supported public path is the static visual evidence table and offline notebook; reconsider only after separately authorized, source-linked redistributable data arrives.
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 83,175 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:e5a324ca… |
| Disclosed rule | Conceptual only | 39-country rising-LEI breadth + 39-central-bank easing breadth; aggregate and reported 7/10-month leads |
| Native span | Single date | Article timestamp 2024-05-01T15:35:21-0400; no component observations |
| Publication lag | Unknown | 843-day article-to-crawl interval is archival delay, not release lag |
| Signal series | Unavailable | No source-linked observations, thresholds, or target-page asset rows |
| Causal overlay | Policy only | Point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close unsupported |
| Disposition | Insufficient evidence | Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, proxy, or source-claim metric fabricated |
Narrative source content is reported without fabricating component data, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.
Stats
| CAGR | — | Sharpe | — |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | — | maxDD | — |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish the public-safe evidence and gap report; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.
Follow-on work
- No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked observations or native historical span for the two 39-entity breadth measures are disclosed. No exact country or central-bank membership, identifiers, netting transformation, direction convention, aggregation formula, weights, score range, or missing-input handling is disclosed. No threshold, state transition, persistence, smoothing, cadence clock, timezone, point-in-time release timing, vintage, or revision policy is disclosed. No executable buy/sell/hold mapping, target instrument, universe, sizing, rebalance, holding period, exit, re-entry, or cost rule is disclosed; the buying-opportunity sentence is qualitative only. The source-reported 0.57 R-squared and 7/10-month leads are not independently validated; no NYSE outcome series is pinned. StocksLEI.gif is referenced but absent from the canonical asset table and is not redistributed; public outputs exclude cached HTML, media, workbooks, credentials, cookies, and private account data.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert leading US-stock indicator no executable seri" --body "Follow-up to 1341: Can the distinct RecessionAlert leading U.S.-stock indicator row be reproduced a" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"