{ "experiment": { "alloc": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_as": null, "alloc_monthly_as": null, "alloc_monthly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "alloc_yearly_as": null, "alloc_yearly_ours": { "labels": [], "series": [] }, "analysis_page": "experiments/1341-analysis.html", "answer": "No playable series. The SHA-verified May 1, 2024 article discloses OECD LEI breadth, central-bank easing breadth, reported 7- and 10-month leads, a 0.57 R-squared claim, monthly report/chart location, and qualitative buy-the-dip context, but no machine-readable observations, exact formula, thresholds, release lag, or portfolio execution rule. Disposition is insufficient_evidence with a public provenance and gap report only.", "bead_ids": [ "1341" ], "cost_variants": {}, "coverage": null, "date": "2026-08-29", "disposition": "insufficient_evidence — publish the public-safe evidence and gap report; do not register an Other-indicators signal or invent a series.", "equity": { "experiment": [], "labels": [], "spy": [], "spy_labels": [] }, "errors": "No source-linked observations or native historical span for the two 39-entity breadth measures are disclosed. No exact country or central-bank membership, identifiers, netting transformation, direction convention, aggregation formula, weights, score range, or missing-input handling is disclosed. No threshold, state transition, persistence, smoothing, cadence clock, timezone, point-in-time release timing, vintage, or revision policy is disclosed. No executable buy/sell/hold mapping, target instrument, universe, sizing, rebalance, holding period, exit, re-entry, or cost rule is disclosed; the buying-opportunity sentence is qualitative only. The source-reported 0.57 R-squared and 7/10-month leads are not independently validated; no NYSE outcome series is pinned. StocksLEI.gif is referenced but absent from the canonical asset table and is not redistributed; public outputs exclude cached HTML, media, workbooks, credentials, cookies, and private account data.", "follow_on": [ { "status": "deferred", "title": "No explicit follow-on; file new issue if needed" } ], "followup_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert leading US-stock indicator no executable seri\" --body \"Follow-up to 1341: Can the distinct RecessionAlert leading U.S.-stock indicator row be reproduced a\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "gh_command": "gh issue create --title \"Follow-up RecessionAlert leading US-stock indicator no executable seri\" --body \"Follow-up to 1341: Can the distinct RecessionAlert leading U.S.-stock indicator row be reproduced a\" --label \"priority:p2\" --label \"pipeline:research\" --label \"agent:ready\"", "id": "1341", "issue_ids": [ "1341" ], "monthly": { "as": [], "labels": [], "ours": [] }, "page": "experiments/1341.html", "performance": { "cagr": 0.0, "max_drawdown": 0.0, "max_drawdown_fallback_rule": "Use daily backtest equity when available; otherwise compound published monthly returns and label the result monthly.", "max_drawdown_observation_frequency": "monthly", "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "volatility": null }, "provenance": { "artifact": "research/findings/specs/recessionalert-leading-us-stocks.json", "code": "tests/test_recessionalert_leading_us_stocks.py", "finding": "research/findings/1341.md", "site_data": "site-data/experiments/1341.json", "tearsheet": null }, "question": "Can the distinct RecessionAlert leading U.S.-stock indicator row be reproduced as a playable Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing rules or data?", "safe_withdrawal": null, "signalSeries": null, "signals": [], "slug": "1341", "stats": { "cagr": 0.0, "canonical_asset_rows": 6, "canonical_series_observations": 0, "economic_publication_lag": "unknown", "executable_signal_rows": 0, "inventory_digest_prefix_verified": true, "manifest_digest_verified": true, "maxDD": 0.0, "observed_article_to_snapshot_days": 843, "page_content_length": 83175, "playable": false, "same_url_crawl_vintages": 2, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0, "source_body_digest_verified": true, "source_claimed_component_leads_months": [ 7, 10 ], "source_claimed_r_squared": 0.57, "target_page_asset_rows": 0 }, "status": "insufficient_evidence", "status_chip": "Insufficient evidence", "supplemental": { "article_date": "2024-05-01", "article_timestamp": "2024-05-01T15:35:21-0400", "canonical_fetch": "2026-08-22T23:48:28Z", "causal_policy": "Article timestamp is the only disclosed cutoff; future overlays require documented point-in-time input availability and at least one available-bar execution lag; same-close unsupported", "decision": "insufficient_evidence", "indicator_id": "recessionalert-leading-us-stocks", "native_span": "single dated commentary page; no component or aggregate series", "publication_lag": "843-day snapshot interval observed; actual source publication/release lag unknown", "registered": false, "registry_action": "none", "research_narrative": [ { "heading": "Plain-language result", "text": "This is a useful description of two international breadth ideas, not a ready-to-run indicator. The article says to aggregate them and treats dips as buying opportunities, but it does not provide the underlying observations or a thresholded signal." }, { "heading": "Why no overlay is shown", "text": "The checked-in row has no machine-readable component history, exact aggregation, or target-page asset payload. Showing a reconstructed series or equity curve would imply data and rules the source never supplied." }, { "heading": "Causal reading", "text": "The article timestamp is the only disclosed cutoff. Any future overlay must use point-in-time inputs and execute at least one available bar later; unknown dates remain unavailable." }, { "heading": "Web exception", "text": "An interactive buy/sell control would be misleading while the source lacks observations, thresholds, and release timing. The supported public path is the static visual evidence table and offline notebook; reconsider only after separately authorized, source-linked redistributable data arrives." } ], "site_destination_if_reopened": "Other / Indicators", "source_sha256": "sha256:e5a324ca2890226d7f62553757130605a5335c6b98bd88e4a67d22b2ca76ea01" }, "tax_analysis": null, "taxable_stats": null, "title": "RecessionAlert leading U.S.-stock indicator: no executable series", "trading_costs": null, "verify": { "as_cagr": null, "as_stats": null, "cagr_delta": null, "gates": null, "last_verify_at": null, "monthly_bias": null, "monthly_corr": null, "monthly_mae": null, "n_months": null, "ours_cagr": 0.0, "ours_stats": { "ann_return": 0.0, "sharpe": 0.0, "sortino": 0.0 }, "passed": null, "status": "not_applicable", "verify_status": null }, "visualizations": [ { "data": { "note": "Narrative source content is reported without fabricating component data, thresholds, signals, market metrics, or portfolio actions.", "rows": [ { "detail": "83,175 bytes; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:e5a324ca…", "evidence": "Canonical page body", "status": "SHA-verified" }, { "detail": "39-country rising-LEI breadth + 39-central-bank easing breadth; aggregate and reported 7/10-month leads", "evidence": "Disclosed rule", "status": "Conceptual only" }, { "detail": "Article timestamp 2024-05-01T15:35:21-0400; no component observations", "evidence": "Native span", "status": "Single date" }, { "detail": "843-day article-to-crawl interval is archival delay, not release lag", "evidence": "Publication lag", "status": "Unknown" }, { "detail": "No source-linked observations, thresholds, or target-page asset rows", "evidence": "Signal series", "status": "Unavailable" }, { "detail": "Point-in-time availability plus at least one available-bar lag; same-close unsupported", "evidence": "Causal overlay", "status": "Policy only" }, { "detail": "Registry unchanged; no signal, equity curve, proxy, or source-claim metric fabricated", "evidence": "Disposition", "status": "Insufficient evidence" } ] }, "title": "What the snapshot proves", "type": "evidence_table" } ] }, "generated_at": "2026-09-17T04:12:25Z", "id": "1341", "schema_id": "experiments/v1", "schema_version": 1 }