quantmodel — Port + verify Link Global Growth Cycle (monthly) vs AS metrics

Objective

Port + verify Link Global Growth Cycle (monthly) vs AS metrics.

Notes: Link GGC replicated 2015+: corr 0.926 CAGRΔ +0.76%. As-of OECD MEI LI_AA vintages (prefer M-1 else ≤M-1). Spec/backtest/ggc.py + runner. Findings: link-ggc-scale-batch.md.

Approach

Reuses existing report research/findings/link-ggc-scale-batch.md — tables/metrics preserved verbatim via source_report pointer. Body below summarizes grounded evidence from that report and adjacent artifacts.

Files / code / data changed

Associated commits (inferred from log grep t40):

c1261825 research: t40 Link Global Growth Cycle replicated vs AS (#38)
c1261825 research: t40 Link Global Growth Cycle replicated vs AS (#38)
Source report: research/findings/link-ggc-scale-batch.md
Task-history entry: research/findings/task-history.json#t40

Results

Key table from source report (preserved):

id	monthly corr	overlap CAGRΔ	status
link-ggc	0.926	+0.76%	replicated

Conclusions and metrics are in research/findings/link-ggc-scale-batch.md; see detail page for preserved tables/metrics.

Conclusions

Link GGC replicated 2015+: corr 0.926 CAGRΔ +0.76%. As-of OECD MEI LI_AA vintages (prefer M-1 else ≤M-1). Spec/backtest/ggc.py + runner. Findings: link-ggc-scale-batch.md.

Problems / follow-ups

See source report or PR discussion for follow-ups. No unsupported follow-ups fabricated.