quantmodel — Compare taxable, deferred, exempt, and liquidation scenario sensitivity

Objective

Compare taxable, deferred, exempt, and liquidation scenario sensitivity.

Notes: Fixed-strategy screen found account settlement material: taxable ongoing drag was 0.98–3.15 pp; optional liquidation added 0–0.13 pp taxable and 0.78–1.71 pp deferred under the 37% withdrawal assumption, while preserving all ongoing metrics.

Approach

Reuses existing report research/findings/catalog-tax-account-sensitivity-t263.md — tables/metrics preserved verbatim via source_report pointer. Body below summarizes grounded evidence from that report and adjacent artifacts.

Files / code / data changed

No commit SHA confidently associated with t263 in sampled log [reconstructed — uncertain].
Source report: research/findings/catalog-tax-account-sensitivity-t263.md
Task-history entry: research/findings/task-history.json#t263

Results

Key table from source report (preserved):

Strategy / period	Pre-tax CAGR	Taxable ongoing CAGR (drag)	Taxable liquidation CAGR (incremental drag)	Deferred ongoing CAGR	Deferred liquidation CAGR (incremental drag)	Exempt CAGR
60/40 / 1962-03-31–2026-07-31	8.5825%	7.5770% (1.0054 pp)	7.4497% (+0.1273 pp)	8.5825%	7.8054% (+0.7770 pp)	8.5825%
Permanent Portfolio / 1993-03-31–2026-07-31	6.6864%	5.7039% (0.9825 pp)	5.5717% (+0.1322 pp)	6.6864%	5.2178% (+1.4686 pp)	6.6864%
ADM / 1997-03-31–2026-07-31	9.6212%	6.4669% (3.1544 pp)	6.4669% (+0.0000 pp)	9.6212%	7.9081% (+1.7131 pp)	9.6212%

Conclusions and metrics are in research/findings/catalog-tax-account-sensitivity-t263.md; see detail page for preserved tables/metrics.

Conclusions

[reconstructed — uncertain] Outcome inferred from status done and task note.

Problems / follow-ups

See source report or PR discussion for follow-ups. No unsupported follow-ups fabricated.