quantmodel — Build verify loop: backtest vs scraped AS metrics with pass/fail + LLM mismatch diagnosis

Objective

Build verify loop: backtest vs scraped AS metrics with pass/fail + LLM mismatch diagnosis.

Notes: Verify loop: compare/registry/runners/diagnose CLI. HAA replicated; BAA partial (+2.54% CAGR, cash explains ~0.7pp). Findings: as-verify-loop.md, replication_status.json, baa-cagr-gap-probes.json. Tests: 36 passed.

Approach

Reuses existing report research/findings/as-verify-loop.md — tables/metrics preserved verbatim via source_report pointer. Body below summarizes grounded evidence from that report and adjacent artifacts.

Files / code / data changed

Associated commits (inferred from log grep t12):

f05b8851 research: AS verify loop + BAA CAGR gap probes (t12) (#8)
f05b8851 research: AS verify loop + BAA CAGR gap probes (t12) (#8)
Source report: research/findings/as-verify-loop.md
Task-history entry: research/findings/task-history.json#t12

Results

Key table from source report (preserved):

Piece	Role
`compare.py`	Overlap CAGR/corr/MAE/bias + `VerifyGates` pass/fail
`registry.py`	Known ports + `replication_status.json` statuses
`runners.py`	HAA / BAA balanced / BAA aggressive backtest runners
`diagnose.py`	LLM mismatch prompt (messages only; no API call)
CLI	`init-status`, `status`, `verify`, `pilot`, `diagnose`

Conclusions and metrics are in research/findings/as-verify-loop.md; see detail page for preserved tables/metrics.

Conclusions

[reconstructed — uncertain] Outcome inferred from status done and task note.

Problems / follow-ups

See source report or PR discussion for follow-ups. No unsupported follow-ups fabricated.