quantmodel — Improve Novell Bond UI1 corr vs AS

Objective

Improve Novell Bond UI1 corr vs AS.

Notes: Bond UI1 ALFRED asof + MoM rising: corr 0.946→0.980 CAGRΔ +0.87%. Findings: novell-bond-ui1-corr-t114.md

Approach

Reuses existing report research/findings/novell-bond-ui1-corr-t114.md — tables/metrics preserved verbatim via source_report pointer. Body below summarizes grounded evidence from that report and adjacent artifacts.

Files / code / data changed

Associated commits (inferred from log grep t114):

11edd94f research: t114 Bond UI1 ALFRED+rising corr 0.980 (#98)
11edd94f research: t114 Bond UI1 ALFRED+rising corr 0.980 (#98)
Source report: research/findings/novell-bond-ui1-corr-t114.md
Task-history entry: research/findings/task-history.json#t114

Results

Key table from source report (preserved):

variant	monthly corr	notes
t92 revised UNRATE > 12m avg	0.946	baseline
ALFRED as-of level-only	0.948	only 2 flag flips vs revised
ALFRED as-of + MoM rising (shipped)	0.980	clears 0.95

Conclusions and metrics are in research/findings/novell-bond-ui1-corr-t114.md; see detail page for preserved tables/metrics.

Conclusions

Bond UI1 ALFRED asof + MoM rising: corr 0.946→0.980 CAGRΔ +0.87%. Findings: novell-bond-ui1-corr-t114.md

Problems / follow-ups

See source report or PR discussion for follow-ups. No unsupported follow-ups fabricated.