Objective
Independently explore the RecessionAlert inventory row for the U.S. Housing Market Index (USHMI) from the checked-in offline snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or crawl-database mutation.
Source and provenance
Page https://recessionalert.com/ushmi/ bound to SHA256 sha256:fafa56a40a0858e39982d1c768ac848a44c8d0e38f20dad163d06343fbfd5ae1, fetched 2026-08-22T23:46:20Z (published 2019-04-15). Linked assets on row: 0. Fourteen 2019/04/*.png chart embeds referenced in HTML remain uncrawled. Superseded crawl revision sha256:da2e61856bd4f308cfc90d5f07e9e0219cebb75c94fdf11691873581eb832e7d was not used.
Disclosed vs inferred
Disclosed (incomplete): USHMI mainline + diffusion narrative; eight housing components; pairing with 10-year minus 1-year Treasury inversion as an AND-style stress filter.
Inferred / proxy: Equal-weight YoY diffusion on FRED PERMIT and HOUST; normalized mainline sum; DGS10−DGS1 month-end inversion gate; SPY/IEF overlay with lag>=1.
Untestable offline: Native component set beyond permits/starts, weights, exact thresholds, chart PNG bytes, product series.
Data spans
| Series | Start | End | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| PERMIT | 1960-01 | 2026-06 | 798 |
| HOUST | 1959-01 | 2026-06 | 810 |
| DGS10 / DGS1 | 1962-01 | 2026-07/08 | ~16k daily |
| SPY month-end overlay | 1993-01 | 2026-07 | ~403 |
| IEF | 2002-07 | 2026-07 | — |
Missing offline: completions, new/existing sales, months supply, NAHB HMI.
Trial summary (causal lag≥1 unless noted)
| variant_id | sharpe | cagr | maxdd | risk_off_share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diffusion625_yoy_lag2 | 0.849 | 0.103 | -0.396 | 0.27 |
| mainline_summation_lag1 | 0.747 | 0.075 | -0.343 | 0.56 |
| housing_and_curve_lag1 | 0.705 | 0.094 | -0.508 | 0.12 |
| diffusion50_yoy_lag1 | 0.571 | 0.058 | -0.384 | 0.49 |
| diffusion50_yoy_lag0_control | 0.709 | 0.071 | -0.213 | 0.49 |
Full ledger: research/findings/campaigns/1617_trial_ledger.json. Module: research/research_campaign/recessionalert_1617.py.
Disposition
- Publication: Other / Research (
recessionalert-ushmi-1617) - native_fidelity: no_go
- campaign_status: completed / exploratory_proxy_campaign
- Not promoted to Other / Indicators
Limitations
Native parity impossible offline; two-of-eight components only; FRED month-end ≠ first-release Census vintages; lag0 is control_only.