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MODELS: Trendex Market Timing/Risk Management | RecessionAlert — exploratory proxy campaign

2026-09-04T00:00:00Z Research completed SHA-pinned Trendex guide discloses end-of-day three-horizon stops, 0-3 diffusion with thirds sizing, trend-count exceedance conviction with a 90% gate, TOP 0-5 / BOT 0-6 scores, and an MFP reference panel, without executable formulas or on-row assets. Thirty-three labeled close-only public proxies plus related off-row weekly TRENDEX workbook overlays were executed with causal lag>=1; disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research with explicit NO-GO for native fidelity.
1599 recessionalert research_campaign proxy trendex diffusion market-timing fidelity_mismatch data_limited exploratory_tested_proxy no_go_native

Source report: research/findings/1599.md

Objective

Independently explore the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row for MODELS: Trendex Market Timing/Risk Management from the checked-in offline snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.

Source and provenance

Page https://recessionalert.com/trendexguide/ bound to SHA256 sha256:a4f92fe9963bc0f8240505c23b1ad0afafdc7d462bfe3171f94581f6ad59ae16, fetched 2026-08-22T23:47:57Z (104,066 bytes, HTTP 200; two same-URL crawl revisions, latest selected). Linked assets on row: 0 (referenced TDXGuide1-8.gif bytes not captured). Related off-row workbook WeeklyData.xlsx sha256:fc2be5f1fc2a2e38949ae566f6e8cb4699a95562975a498fb5a53510cc40d67c (TRENDEX PROB MODELS sheet, weekly 2005-04-15/2026-08-14; not href'd on this page). Public close-only proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite.

Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag

Documented structure covers end-of-day three-horizon support/resistance stops (15-20y least-whipsaw optimization), a 0-3 diffusion index with thirds sizing, trend-count historical-exceedance percentile conviction gated on stop violations (90%+ actionable), TOP 0-5 / BOT 0-6 diffusion scores with peak >=3 / trough >=2 high conviction, and a 5-6-factor MFP reference panel. Native observation span and publication lag are unavailable on-row; causal default is lag>=1. Guide article dated 2021-07-09; end-of-day/daily-session cadence only.

Approach and variants

Twelve candidate families with public proxies (^GSPC, SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, AGG, GLD, IEF, BIL) plus lagged weekly TRENDEX TDIFF overlays. Thirty-three labeled variants executed; see research/findings/1599.md and research/findings/campaigns/1599_trial_ledger.json.

Disposition

exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; NO-GO for native Trendex stop/diffusion/percentile/TOP-BOT parity; not promoted to playable Indicators.

Source artifact: research/results/1599.md