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PRO>Trendex Charts | RecessionAlert — exploratory proxy campaign

2026-09-04T00:00:00Z Research completed SHA-pinned PRO>Trendex Charts page discloses three DEM++ stop horizons, diffusion 0-3 staging, and 20y duration-exceedance probabilities with 85%+ conviction gated on crosses, without a stop formula or on-row assets. Twenty-nine labeled close-only public proxies plus related off-row weekly TRENDEX workbook overlays were executed with causal lag>=1; disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research with explicit NO-GO for native fidelity.
1598 recessionalert research_campaign proxy trendex diffusion market-timing fidelity_mismatch data_limited exploratory_tested_proxy no_go_native

Source report: research/findings/1598.md

Objective

Independently explore the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row for PRO>Trendex Charts from the checked-in offline snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.

Source and provenance

Page https://recessionalert.com/trendex/ bound to SHA256 sha256:1e8169579e056a0f50ab0fc97df47497897c37c9f169128eef54ab910abd4587, fetched 2026-08-22T23:39:05Z (88,044 bytes, HTTP 200; five same-URL crawl revisions, latest selected). Linked assets on row: 0 (referenced SPXTDX.gif bytes not captured). Related off-row workbook WeeklyData.xlsx sha256:fc2be5f1fc2a2e38949ae566f6e8cb4699a95562975a498fb5a53510cc40d67c (TRENDEX PROB MODELS sheet, weekly 2005-04-15/2026-08-14; not href'd on this page). Public close-only proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite.

Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag

Documented structure covers three DEM++ stop horizons (short/medium/long) with close-based bullish/bearish flips on prior support/resistance, next-session guidance, diffusion 0–3 aboveness staging, and per-stop 20-year duration-exceedance top/trough probabilities with 85%+ conviction gated on stop crosses. Native observation span and publication lag are unavailable on-row; causal default is lag>=1. Evergreen PRO page (no article date); daily 08:00 GMT / weekly Sat–Sun refresh windows.

Approach and variants

Nine candidate families with public proxies (^GSPC, SPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, GLD, IEF, BIL) plus lagged weekly TRENDEX TDIFF overlays. Twenty-nine labeled variants executed; see research/findings/1598.md and research/findings/campaigns/1598_trial_ledger.json.

Disposition

exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; NO-GO for native Trendex DEM++/diffusion/probability parity; not promoted to playable Indicators.

Source artifact: research/results/1598.md