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PRO>SP500 Charts | RecessionAlert — exploratory Gen-1/Gen-2 proxy campaign

2026-09-03T17:52:33Z Research completed SHA-pinned PRO>SP500 Charts page discloses Gen-1 Diffusion/top-3 cues, Gen-2 horizons 6/17/34/68, and ST-ALGO lag/latch hints without DEM++, closed-form maps, or on-row assets. Twenty-nine labeled close-only public proxies plus related off-row WeeklyData MF/GEN-2 overlays were executed with causal lag>=1; disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research with explicit NO-GO for native fidelity and for treating Gen-2 probabilities as actionable signals.
1576 recessionalert research_campaign proxy gen1 gen2 st-algo market-timing fidelity_mismatch data_limited exploratory_tested_proxy no_go_native

Source report: research/findings/1576.md

Objective

Independently explore the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row for PRO>SP500 Charts from the checked-in offline snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.

Source and provenance

Page https://recessionalert.com/spx_procharts/ bound to SHA256 sha256:9a828206a7af5e90f3ecac75b2e445167e90b15cd1310024f4499c22284384af, fetched 2026-08-22T23:38:56Z. Linked assets on row: 0. Related off-row workbook WeeklyData.xlsx sha256:fc2be5f1fc2a2e38949ae566f6e8cb4699a95562975a498fb5a53510cc40d67c (SP500 MF PROB MODEL / GEN-2 PROB MODELS; not SHA-linked on this page_url). Public close-only proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite.

Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag

Documented structure covers Gen-1 Diffusion>=2 / top-3>=90% cues, Gen-2 on-row horizons 6/17/34/68 (sibling 7/17/34/72), ST-ALGO lag 3–5 avg~4 / latch=1, and an explicit non-actionable Gen-2 disclaimer. Native observation span and publication lag are unavailable on-row; causal default is lag>=1.

Approach and variants

Nine candidate families with public proxies (^GSPC, SPY, ^VIX, IEF, BIL) plus lagged workbook DIFF/DIR/P(TOP). Twenty-nine labeled variants executed; see research/findings/1576.md and research/findings/campaigns/1576_trial_ledger.json.

Disposition

exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; NO-GO for native Gen-1/Gen-2/ST-ALGO/PCT parity; Gen-2 probabilities remain non-actionable per source disclaimer; not promoted to playable Indicators.

Source artifact: research/results/1576.md