Objective
Independently explore the RecessionAlert inventory row MODELS: The SAHM Rule Redux | RecessionAlert from the checked-in offline snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.
Source and provenance
Page https://recessionalert.com/sahm-rule-redux/ bound to SHA256 sha256:9e9dc30d8e2d67ec4b12fd7b31d0589fb92659e575f105def7c6290949ab434e, fetched 2026-08-22T23:48:25Z, HTTP 200, 111645 bytes. Asset SHA256 provenance: linked_assets=0. Public month-end proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite and data/recessionalert.sqlite.
Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag
Documented Sahm constructions include standard 3MMA vs 12-month low trigger 0.50, Redux unsmoothed 0.60, 7-month unsmoothed, cycle-low Schannepp, state individualized triggers 0.4–1.0%, Job Losers U2 Redux, and monthly subscriber update cadence. Native observation span is unavailable on-row. Effective proxy span: UNRATE 1948-01–2026-06; SPY overlay from 1993-01; BIL sleeve from 2007-05. Publication lag unknown; causal default is lag>=1.
Approach and variants
Six labeled UNRATE proxy families (UNRATE, SPY, IEF, BIL) with lag/lookback/threshold neighbors executed via research/research_campaign/recessionalert_1565.py; see research/findings/1565.md and research/findings/campaigns/1565_trial_ledger.json.
Disposition
exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; NO-GO for native SAHM Rule Redux parity; not promoted to playable Indicators.