Objective
Explore the distinct RecessionAlert Recession Probability Enhancements inventory row from checked-in offline sources without live requests, credentials, private data, raw source republication, or SQLite mutation.
Source and provenance
Page https://recessionalert.com/recession-probability-enhancements-to-usmlei/ is bound to SHA256 sha256:508260beb569baf22923cc89e5b9112290e0dcd5e24f295bbdc491afa276e100. Related MonthlyData.xlsx USMLEI V2 has SHA256 sha256:435d142f7e8851a740c78a3d24db6bb15930b21a861cb5520d0a494e6575dced. Chart PNG embeds are uncrawled (linked_assets=0). Only derived monthly signals and metrics are published.
Approach and results
Eighteen labeled variants across seven families used a month-end SPY/IEF overlay on offline USMLEI_V2. Primary claims require lag_bars >= 1; lag 0 is control-only. Top-2 aggregate, level/Probit-like, correlation, Mahalanobis-like, diffusion, and best_effort neighbors were tested; native four-model parity remains NO-GO.
Disposition
exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only. NO-GO for native probability fidelity or promotion to a playable Indicator because the source omits Probit coefficients, 21-component thresholds, Mahalanobis parameters, and portfolio mapping. Continuous USMLEI gauge remains separately published as recessionalert-usmlei.