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Quantifying market valuation risk PART 3 | RecessionAlert — exploratory proxy campaign

2026-09-03T10:09:00Z Research completed The SHA-pinned PART-3 article describes RAVI target distances and a short-term risk zone without disclosing native construction. Twenty-eight public valuation, trend, liquidity, and related-workbook overlays were tested with causal lag>=1; disposition exploratory_tested_proxy under Other/Research with explicit NO-GO for native RAVI fidelity.
1550 recessionalert research_campaign ravi valuation-risk proxy fidelity_mismatch data_limited exploratory_tested_proxy no_go_native

Source report: research/findings/1550.md

Objective

Explore the distinct RecessionAlert PART-3 valuation-risk inventory row from checked-in offline sources without live requests, credentials, private data, raw source republication, or SQLite mutation.

Source and provenance

Page https://recessionalert.com/quantifying-market-valuation-risk-part-3/ is bound to SHA256 sha256:741dea1c37744aeaf1b62dce5eddfe43d7d6ac47611ee5f45c967d272da57bef. The related off-row MonthlyData.xlsx has SHA256 sha256:435d142f7e8851a740c78a3d24db6bb15930b21a861cb5520d0a494e6575dced; only derived monthly signals and metrics are published.

Approach and results

Twenty-eight labeled variants across seven families used a month-end SPY/IEF overlay. Primary claims require lag_bars >= 1; lag 0 is control-only. The simple lagged SPY 12-month trend proxy and lagged workbook 2YR forecast reached the candidate frontier, while regime and timing diagnostics showed that results remain proxy- and period-dependent.

Disposition

exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only. NO-GO for native RAVI fidelity or promotion to a playable Indicator because the source omits construction weights, executable thresholds, and point-in-time publication timestamps.

Source artifact: research/results/1550.md