Objective
Independently explore the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row for MODELS: Understanding SP500 Gen2 Persistent Current Trend (PCT) probability model from the checked-in offline snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.
Source and provenance
Page https://recessionalert.com/pctmodel/ bound to SHA256 sha256:f62e3557bc157d890ec68a99a31d4a4898df9797a5d370b9dc56c3a629213cb1, fetched 2026-08-22T23:48:23Z. Linked assets on row: 0. Related off-row workbook WeeklyData.xlsx sha256:fc2be5f1fc2a2e38949ae566f6e8cb4699a95562975a498fb5a53510cc40d67c (GEN-2 PROB MODELS; not href'd on this page). Public close-only proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite.
Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag
Documented structure covers four zig-zag horizons x ∈ {7,17,34,72}, duration/intensity reversal-probability average, PCT expand-x persist-trend, and ST-ALGO 2–4 day lag / 1-day latch. Native observation span and publication lag are unavailable on-row; causal default is lag>=1. Native H/L look-ahead is non-causal.
Approach and variants
Nine candidate families with public proxies (^GSPC, SPY, IEF, BIL) plus lagged workbook DIR/P(TOP). Twenty-nine labeled variants executed; see research/findings/1547.md and research/findings/campaigns/1547_trial_ledger.json.
Disposition
exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; NO-GO for native PCT/Gen2/ST-ALGO parity; not promoted to playable Indicators.