Objective
Independently replicate the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row for Market Top Warnings from the checked-in data/recessionalert.sqlite snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.
Source and provenance
Page https://recessionalert.com/market-top-warnings/ bound to SHA256 sha256:2b25e8c05a00d909bf2430185cd5e6596b6ccd6ef70d1bb36e8f032f42eb6ade, fetched 2026-08-22T23:47:17Z, published 2020-05-14. Public proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite.
Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag
Documented fragments include SP500 Signals dashboard purpose, HILO2 PENDING early-warning relative to HILO, NEWHI as a favorite short-term model, and 1/4/13/26/52-week highs-lows importance, plus a May 2020 batch SELL anecdote. No native observation series, formulas, thresholds, publication lag, or buy/sell/hold portfolio mapping are disclosed. Causal default is lag>=1 on daily closes; lag-zero is control_only.
Approach and variants
Five candidate families (HILO multi-horizon, HILO2 pending, NEWHI concentration, speculative top-warning vote, best_effort SMA grid) with public proxies (SPY, ^GSPC, ^VIX, INDEX:HIGN, IWM, BAA10Y, IEF). Eighteen labeled variants executed on the longest defensible panels; see research/findings/1445.md and research/findings/campaigns/1445_trial_ledger.json.
Disposition
exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; not promoted to playable Indicators.