Objective
Independently replicate the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row for Market Timing Strategies – putting it all together from the checked-in data/recessionalert.sqlite snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.
Source and provenance
Page https://recessionalert.com/market-timing-strategies-putting-it-all-together/ bound to SHA256 sha256:d343299b639e26b151cf44a30aa64795bd6c12068af6e4ecb65d7295f7c20d5b, fetched 2026-08-22T23:44:09Z, published 2013-10-04. Public proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite.
Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag
Documented fragments include seven model-family sections, parallel 1/5 sleeves (STM/RFE/CMHI/SP-500 A/B), BUY-only dip placement overlays, SIGS composite monitoring, and STM Death/Power bet-size exceptions. No native observation series, numeric SIGS thresholds on this page, or publication lag are disclosed. Causal default is lag>=1 on month-end closes; lag-zero is control_only.
Approach and variants
Seven candidate families with public Yahoo/FRED proxies and labeled substitutes (UNRATE/INDPRO/T10Y3MM/^VIX for absent CFNAI/USSLIND/T10Y2Y/VIXCLS). Eighteen labeled variants executed on the longest shared SPY panel; see research/findings/1444.md and research/findings/campaigns/1444_trial_ledger.json.
Disposition
exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; not promoted to playable Indicators.