Objective
Independently replicate the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row for The Market & Economic Dashboard from the checked-in data/recessionalert.sqlite snapshot without live-site requests, credentials, private account data, or canonical crawl-database mutation.
Source and provenance
Page https://recessionalert.com/market-economic-dashboard/ bound to SHA256 sha256:9117e99a2035ae8419163cfcfff0a659aeb4d8b6ec374a6bcc481bbdd6b40cce, fetched 2026-08-22T23:47:02Z, published 2020-01-07. Public proxies loaded read-only from data/market.sqlite.
Disclosed rule, native span, and publication lag
Documented fragments include TOP-3 trough/peak probability (>50% actionable zone), breadth-liquidity diffusions (12-o-clock neutral; SPD inverted), RFE-5..RFE-14 macro ensembles, and leading macro indices (WLEI2/SUPERINDEX/USMLEI/USLONG/HOUSING/LABOR). No native observation series, dashboard-wide buy/sell/hold state machine, numeric zone cutoffs, or publication lag are disclosed. Causal default is lag>=1 on month-end closes; lag-zero is control_only.
Approach and variants
Seven candidate families (one documented, five inferred, one speculative) with public Yahoo/FRED proxies and labeled splices (^VIX, T10Y3MM/GS10_minus_TB3MS, INDPRO/HOUST/UNRATE, NFCILEVERAGE, BAA_minus_GS10). Sixteen labeled variants executed on the longest shared SPY panel; see research/findings/1443.md and research/findings/campaigns/1443_trial_ledger.json.
Disposition
exploratory_tested_proxy — Other/Research publication only; not promoted to playable Indicators.