Objective
Materialize best-effort exploratory evidence for the incomplete CHARTS > Bitcoin | RecessionAlert row without claiming native source parity or changing the canonical crawl DB.
Approach
The native page is bound to sha256:48ab3995ad8abafa4060fa4a72dd658607ddd205dd28dc1e040abe7ab38b2139 fetched 2026-08-22T23:39:03Z. A frozen Coin Metrics Community API v4 daily BTC PriceUSD proxy spans 2010-07-18–2026-07-25 with 5,852 observations and hash sha256:3625f614441c68525ab325015a0613561ce720bc86e95cac0500277b22f4a58f. SPY/BIL are read-only cached target sleeves. Five labeled variants cover source-informed Mayer thresholds, momentum, and correction families; lag 1 and lag 2 are causal, while lag 0 is a research-only control.
Results
The generated experiment and Research Library pages retain all five trial metrics, signal/equity arrays, diagnostics, provenance, and explicit gaps. Outcomes are heterogeneous/weak and do not justify native promotion.
Validation
Focused offline tests: python3 -m pytest -q tests/test_recessionalert_bitcoin.py tests/test_recessionalert_bitcoin_proxy.py. Publication uses the issue-scoped publisher plus canonical notebook, Research Library, scaffold, and results producers.
Gaps
No native component series, workbook mapping, economic release timestamp, publication lag, common state machine, target instrument, allocation, cost model, or source portfolio execution semantics are disclosed. Unknown values remain unavailable. No credentials, cookies, private account data, raw source HTML, workbook bytes, or live-site response are redistributed.