Research campaign · Iteration 1 · unassessed

MODELS: A leading indicator for U.S stocks | RecessionAlert — exploratory proxy campaign

What can be learned from the SHA-verified RecessionAlert leading-stock article using transparent public proxies when its observations, thresholds, release clock, and market rule are incomplete?

Expressions: 8
Logged trials: Not recorded
Independent events: Not assessed
Evidence: unassessed

What the research found

The checked-in article discloses two international breadth ideas, source-reported 7- and 10-month leads, a 0.57 R-squared claim, and qualitative dip-buying context, but no source-linked observations or complete state rule.
INDPRO and UNRATE are transparent public aggregate proxies selected for history and reproducibility; they do not recover the source's 39-country/39-central-bank identity.
Eight labeled variants ran over the primary 1993-01 through 2026-06 SPY-aligned window; 8 variants preserve underperformance outcomes in the ledger.
The causal baseline uses one available monthly bar of execution lag; lag zero remains a timing diagnostic only, and warm-up/missing inputs remain unavailable.
No inferred variant is promoted or registered as an official RecessionAlert indicator; this is Other / Research evidence.

Mechanism and falsifiers

Not recorded in this iteration.

Confidence and limitations

Source-linked observations and native historical span for both 39-entity breadth measures.
Exact OECD-country and central-bank memberships, identifiers, units, and denominator implementation.
Exact net-percentage transformations and direction conventions.
Aggregate formula, component weights, score range, normalization, and missing-input behavior.
Numeric thresholds, state transitions, persistence, confirmation, and smoothing.
Recurring cadence, release calendar, publication clock, timezone, and vintage/revision policy.
Buy/sell/hold mapping, target instrument, universe, sizing, rebalance, costs, exits, and re-entry.
Source-linked NYSE outcome history and independent validation window for the claimed leads and R-squared.
Canonical StocksLEI.gif payload or redistributable machine-readable chart series.
A proxy preserves the distinct page identity; all tested rules below are inferred and not native fidelity.

Not recorded in this iteration.

Compare expressions

Download evidence

Exploratory results. Check each period, proxy and cost assumption before comparing. — means not recorded.

Expression / family	CAGR	Sharpe	Max drawdown	Test period	Assessment
recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag0.t0p0indpro health	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag1.t0p0indpro health	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb12.lag1.t0p0indpro health	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb21.lag2.t0p0indpro health	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag0.t0p0unrate regime	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0unrate regime	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t0p0unrate regime	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory
recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb21.lag2.t0p0unrate regime	—	—	—	Not recorded	exploratory

Open an expression to inspect its rules and request confirmation. The request must be submitted by a trusted repository collaborator.

recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag0.t0p0

available signal observations: 1285
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: same_close_research_only
exploratory: True
family: indpro_health
family description: INDPRO below trailing mean as an inferred activity-breadth substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag0.t0p0
input names: INDPRO
lag bars: 0
lookback: 6
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 91
risk off fraction: 0.3027237354085603
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: research_only_sensitivity
signal span: 1919-06/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag0.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag1.t0p0

available signal observations: 1285
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: causal_one_available_bar
exploratory: True
family: indpro_health
family description: INDPRO below trailing mean as an inferred activity-breadth substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag1.t0p0
input names: INDPRO
lag bars: 1
lookback: 6
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 91
risk off fraction: 0.3027237354085603
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: not_used
signal span: 1919-06/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag1.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 5

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb12.lag1.t0p0

available signal observations: 1279
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: causal_one_available_bar
exploratory: True
family: indpro_health
family description: INDPRO below trailing mean as an inferred activity-breadth substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb12.lag1.t0p0
input names: INDPRO
lag bars: 1
lookback: 12
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 48
risk off fraction: 0.2720875684128225
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: not_used
signal span: 1919-12/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb12.lag1.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 11

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb21.lag2.t0p0

available signal observations: 1270
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: causal_one_available_bar
exploratory: True
family: indpro_health
family description: INDPRO below trailing mean as an inferred activity-breadth substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb21.lag2.t0p0
input names: INDPRO
lag bars: 2
lookback: 21
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 33
risk off fraction: 0.262992125984252
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: not_used
signal span: 1920-09/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb21.lag2.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 20

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag0.t0p0

available signal observations: 935
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: same_close_research_only
exploratory: True
family: unrate_regime
family description: UNRATE rate of change above threshold as an inferred easing-reversal substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag0.t0p0
input names: UNRATE
lag bars: 0
lookback: 6
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 57
risk off fraction: 0.3497326203208556
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: research_only_sensitivity
signal span: 1948-07/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag0.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0

available signal observations: 935
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: causal_one_available_bar
exploratory: True
family: unrate_regime
family description: UNRATE rate of change above threshold as an inferred easing-reversal substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0
input names: UNRATE
lag bars: 1
lookback: 6
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 58
risk off fraction: 0.3497326203208556
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: not_used
signal span: 1948-07/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 6

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t0p0

available signal observations: 929
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: causal_one_available_bar
exploratory: True
family: unrate_regime
family description: UNRATE rate of change above threshold as an inferred easing-reversal substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t0p0
input names: UNRATE
lag bars: 1
lookback: 12
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 30
risk off fraction: 0.348762109795479
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: not_used
signal span: 1949-01/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 12

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb21.lag2.t0p0

available signal observations: 920
claim kind: inferred
execution: one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity
execution status: causal_one_available_bar
exploratory: True
family: unrate_regime
family description: UNRATE rate of change above threshold as an inferred easing-reversal substitute
hold months: 1
id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb21.lag2.t0p0
input names: UNRATE
lag bars: 2
lookback: 21
market inputs: SPY
IEF
BIL
missingness: warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on
publication lag: unknown
risk off events: 16
risk off fraction: 0.3673913043478261
rule label: binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed
same close status: not_used
signal span: 1949-10/2026-06
source identity: public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series
spec id: recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb21.lag2.t0p0
threshold: 0.0
unavailable signal observations: 21

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

Interactive lab

Interactive history unavailable

Loading available evidence…

Research record

Source claims, inferred rules, experiments and the evidence behind the assessment.

Source

article timestamp: 2024-05-01T15:35:21-0400
database: data/recessionalert.sqlite opened read-only
fetched at: 2026-08-22T23:48:28Z
inventory: research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md row 10
manifest: research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json
native span: single dated May 1, 2024 HTML article snapshot; no source-linked history for either breadth component or the aggregate
publication lag: unknown; monthly report/chart references disclose no recurring release clock, timezone, point-in-time availability, or vintage/revision policy
redacted url: https://recessionalert.com/a-leading-indicator-for-u-s-stocks/
sha256: sha256:e5a324ca2890226d7f62553757130605a5335c6b98bd88e4a67d22b2ca76ea01

What the source claims

The article names the net percentage of 39 OECD countries with rising leading economic indices as a medium-term leading indicator for U.S. stocks; observations and exact transformation are absent.
The article names the net percentage of 39 central banks easing rates as a medium-term leading indicator; membership and easing classification are absent.
The article reports 7- and 10-month maximum leads to NYSE annual percentage change and a 0.57 aggregate R-squared; source observations and validation window are absent.
The article says dips are a buying opportunity but defines no executable buy, sell, hold, exit, or re-entry state.
This campaign tests INDPRO and UNRATE aggregate public proxies with explicit lookback, threshold, and execution-lag neighbors; these are not native source fidelity.
SPY risk-on with IEF or BIL risk-off sleeves are descriptive inferred overlays only because no target or allocation rule is disclosed.

Rules actually disclosed

Two net international breadth concepts, source-reported leads and R-squared, and qualitative buy-the-dip context; no executable state machine.

What had to be inferred

INDPRO/UNRATE aggregate proxies, lookbacks, thresholds, one-bar execution convention, and SPY/IEF/BIL overlays.

Research questions

What can be learned from the SHA-verified RecessionAlert leading-stock article using transparent public proxies when its observations, thresholds, release clock, and market rule are incomplete?

Data

canonical native span: single dated May 1, 2024 HTML article snapshot; no source-linked history for either breadth component or the aggregate
canonical publication lag: unknown; monthly report/chart references disclose no recurring release clock, timezone, point-in-time availability, or vintage/revision policy
canonical sha256: sha256:e5a324ca2890226d7f62553757130605a5335c6b98bd88e4a67d22b2ca76ea01
canonical source: research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json + research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md + read-only data/recessionalert.sqlite
database policy: All reads use SQLite mode=ro; no canonical crawl or market cache mutation.
primary common window: 1993-01 through 2026-06 after monthly alignment
proxy inputs: FRED INDPRO/UNRATE and Yahoo SPY/IEF/BIL snapshots represented by checked-in data/market.sqlite
redistribution: Publish derived metrics, proxy labels, source hashes, gap notes, and charts only; no raw page/media, credentials, cookies, or private account data.

Baseline implementation

available signal observations

1285

claim kind

inferred

execution

one available monthly bar lag is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only lookahead sensitivity

execution status

same_close_research_only

exploratory

True

family

indpro_health

family description

INDPRO below trailing mean as an inferred activity-breadth substitute

hold months

recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag0.t0p0

input names

INDPRO

lag bars

lookback

market inputs

metrics

SPY BIL

annualized return: 0.09297474022891805
benchmark total return: 5.9368716911788315
end: 2026-06-30
max drawdown: -0.16221310705313907
observations: 229
risk off fraction: 0.37554585152838427
sharpe: 0.8544601344677404
start: 2007-06-30
total return: 4.455190068956827
volatility: 0.11163990440234395

SPY IEF

annualized return: 0.09588816367698749
benchmark total return: 11.69295042059387
end: 2026-06-30
max drawdown: -0.17612333323309304
observations: 287
risk off fraction: 0.3310104529616725
sharpe: 0.8545124270567294
start: 2002-08-31
total return: 7.934614480068149
volatility: 0.11528209476306092

missingness

warm-up and unavailable states remain unavailable, never converted to risk-on

publication lag

unknown

risk off events

risk off fraction

0.3027237354085603

rule label

binary inferred risk-off overlay; no native buy/sell rule is claimed

same close status

research_only_sensitivity

signal span

1919-06/2026-06

source identity

public macro proxy; not the undisclosed 39-entity source series

spec id

recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag0.t0p0

threshold

0.0

unavailable signal observations

What to try interactively

default
recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag1.t0p0
description
Select an inferred public proxy variant; no setting is disclosed by RecessionAlert.
name
variant
values
- recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag0.t0p0
- recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb6.lag1.t0p0
- recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb12.lag1.t0p0
- recessionalert.1341.indpro_health.lb21.lag2.t0p0
- recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag0.t0p0
- recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb6.lag1.t0p0
- recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb12.lag1.t0p0
- recessionalert.1341.unrate_regime.lb21.lag2.t0p0
default
1
description
Lag 1 is the causal baseline; lag 0 is research-only same-close sensitivity.
name
execution_lag
values
- 0
- 1
- 2
default
IEF
description
Descriptive inferred sleeve; the source discloses no target instrument.
name
defensive_sleeve
values
- IEF
- BIL

Suggested next research

Can an authorized redistributable StocksLEI chart or source-linked monthly panel be obtained?
What exact memberships, netting direction, denominator, aggregate weights, and missing-input behavior did the source use?
What recurring publication timestamps, vintages, revisions, and point-in-time cutoffs apply to every component?
Can the source-reported leads and 0.57 R-squared be recomputed against a defined NYSE target?
Does any complete buy/sell/hold/exit rule exist beyond the qualitative dip-buying sentence?

Trial ledger

iteration
1
status
published
summary
Offline public-proxy campaign published while native source-fidelity gaps remain.

State-space exploration

8 labeled variants tested; negative outcomes preserved in state-space.json.

What did not work

Proxy variants are identity-mismatched and cannot validate the native RecessionAlert claims.

Next questions

Can an authorized redistributable StocksLEI chart or source-linked monthly panel be obtained?
What exact memberships, netting direction, denominator, aggregate weights, and missing-input behavior did the source use?
What recurring publication timestamps, vintages, revisions, and point-in-time cutoffs apply to every component?
Can the source-reported leads and 0.57 R-squared be recomputed against a defined NYSE target?
Does any complete buy/sell/hold/exit rule exist beyond the qualitative dip-buying sentence?

Review status

published. Research publication does not imply official admission.

Return to pending research