Research campaign · Iteration 1 · unassessed

RecessionAlert Bitcoin — inferred public-proxy campaign

Can the incomplete RecessionAlert Bitcoin context suite yield transparent, causally timed exploratory public proxies without claiming native source fidelity?

Expressions: 5
Logged trials: Not recorded
Independent events: Not assessed
Evidence: unassessed

What the research found

Five public proxy variants are reproducible over the longest frozen BTC history, but no candidate establishes native RecessionAlert fidelity.
Causal lag-1 and lag-2 results are retained; lag-zero is control-only.

Mechanism and falsifiers

Not recorded in this iteration.

Confidence and limitations

All five candidates are inferred public proxies, not RecessionAlert native observations.
The frozen BTC aggregate is a provider aggregate and does not identify an executable venue.
SPY/BIL sleeves and causal lag are explicit research assumptions.

Not recorded in this iteration.

Compare expressions

Download evidence

Exploratory results. Check each period, proxy and cost assumption before comparing. — means not recorded.

Expression / family	CAGR	Sharpe	Max drawdown	Test period	Assessment
recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-documented-lag1mayer	6.5%	1.01	-17.1%	Not recorded	executed
recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor06-lag2mayer	9.1%	0.96	-21.6%	Not recorded	executed
recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor10-lag0-controlmayer	8.7%	1.30	-15.1%	Not recorded	executed
recessionalert-bitcoin-momentum12-lag1momentum	9.2%	1.10	-21.1%	Not recorded	executed
recessionalert-bitcoin-correction10-lag1correction	5.6%	1.53	-10.8%	Not recorded	executed

Open an expression to inspect its rules and request confirmation. The request must be submitted by a trusted repository collaborator.

recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-documented-lag1

family

mayer

recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-documented-lag1

kind

inferred_proxy

parameters

lag bars: 1
lookback: 200
threshold: 1.0

status

executed

text

public-proxy exploratory variant

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor06-lag2

family

mayer

recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor06-lag2

kind

inferred_proxy

parameters

lag bars: 2
lookback: 200
threshold: 0.6

status

executed

text

public-proxy exploratory variant

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor10-lag0-control

family

mayer

recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor10-lag0-control

kind

control_only

parameters

lag bars: 0
lookback: 200
threshold: 1.0

status

executed

text

same-close control; never causal

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert-bitcoin-momentum12-lag1

family

momentum

recessionalert-bitcoin-momentum12-lag1

kind

inferred_proxy

parameters

lag bars: 1
lookback: 365
threshold: 0.0

status

executed

text

public-proxy exploratory variant

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

recessionalert-bitcoin-correction10-lag1

family

correction

recessionalert-bitcoin-correction10-lag1

kind

inferred_proxy

parameters

lag bars: 1
lookback: 365
threshold: -0.1

status

executed

text

public-proxy exploratory variant

Confirm as strategy Confirm as indicator

Interactive lab

Interactive history unavailable

Loading available evidence…

Research record

Source claims, inferred rules, experiments and the evidence behind the assessment.

Source

fetched at: 2026-08-22T23:39:03Z
native span: undisclosed; narrative history claims since 2010
publication lag: unknown; article fetch is archival, not economic release timing
sha256: sha256:48ab3995ad8abafa4060fa4a72dd658607ddd205dd28dc1e040abe7ab38b2139
title: CHARTS > Bitcoin | RecessionAlert
url: https://recessionalert.com/bitcoin/

What the source claims

The source discloses Mayer Multiple as BTC price divided by 200-day average with MM=1 bounce BUY, MM<0.6 cyclical BUY context, MM>2.4 overbought, and MM>3.6 near a cyclical top.
The source describes daily BOCA, exchange-balance, Puell, ETF-flow, probability, and 30-minute technical context, but not one executable state machine.
This campaign tests labeled BTC price, momentum, and correction proxies with explicit SPY/BIL sleeve and lag assumptions.

Rules actually disclosed

The source discloses Mayer Multiple as BTC price divided by 200-day average with MM=1 bounce BUY, MM<0.6 cyclical BUY context, MM>2.4 overbought, and MM>3.6 near a cyclical top.
The source describes daily BOCA, exchange-balance, Puell, ETF-flow, probability, and 30-minute technical context, but not one executable state machine.

What had to be inferred

This campaign tests labeled BTC price, momentum, and correction proxies with explicit SPY/BIL sleeve and lag assumptions.

Research questions

Can the incomplete RecessionAlert Bitcoin context suite yield transparent, causally timed exploratory public proxies without claiming native source fidelity?

Data

canonical sha256: sha256:48ab3995ad8abafa4060fa4a72dd658607ddd205dd28dc1e040abe7ab38b2139
canonical source: research/artifacts/recessionalert/manifest.json + research/findings/recessionalert_inventory.md + read-only data/recessionalert.sqlite
overlay cache: data/market.sqlite via mode=ro/query_only
proxy data path: research/campaigns/recessionalert-bitcoin-1361/data/btc-priceusd.csv
proxy data sha256: sha256:3625f614441c68525ab325015a0613561ce720bc86e95cac0500277b22f4a58f
proxy native span: 2010-07-18
2026-07-25
proxy provider: Coin Metrics Community API v4
redistribution: Derived public proxy metrics only; no raw source payloads, credentials, cookies, or private account data.

Baseline implementation

family

mayer

recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-documented-lag1

kind

inferred_proxy

metrics

cagr: 0.06520616834604165
max drawdown: -0.17057248960936966
sharpe: 1.0142546075459904

parameters

lag bars: 1
lookback: 200
threshold: 1.0

status

executed

text

public-proxy exploratory variant

What to try interactively

name
variant
options
- recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-documented-lag1
- recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor06-lag2
- recessionalert-bitcoin-mayer-floor10-lag0-control
- recessionalert-bitcoin-momentum12-lag1
- recessionalert-bitcoin-correction10-lag1
name
lag_bars
options
- 0
- 1
- 2

Suggested next research

Can authorized source refresh map a native Bitcoin workbook and release clock?
Can independent post-2026 holdout and venue-aware costs test the near-benchmark momentum proxy?
Which persistence, precedence, exits, and cash semantics does the publisher intend?

Trial ledger

artifacts
- research/campaigns/recessionalert-bitcoin-1361/state-space.json
- research/campaigns/recessionalert-bitcoin-1361/diagnostics.json
- research/campaigns/recessionalert-bitcoin-1361/synthesis.json
iteration
1
status
published

Next questions

Can authorized source refresh map a native Bitcoin workbook and release clock?
Can independent post-2026 holdout and venue-aware costs test the near-benchmark momentum proxy?
Which persistence, precedence, exits, and cash semantics does the publisher intend?

Review status

published. Research publication does not imply official admission.

Return to pending research