Research campaign · Iteration 1 · unassessed

NH-NL Breadth — exploratory campaign

Does SMA50 of new-highs minus new-lows predict risk-on/off or only describe it?

Expressions
1
Logged trials
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Independent events
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Evidence
unassessed

What the research found

Mechanism and falsifiers

Not recorded in this iteration.

Not recorded in this iteration.

Confidence and limitations

  • HIGN/LOWN start 2001; not NYSE official.

Not recorded in this iteration.

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Exploratory results. Check each period, proxy and cost assumption before comparing. — means not recorded.

Expression / familyCAGRSharpeMax drawdownTest periodAssessment
nhnl-breadth.sma50.threshold0.hold20nhnl-breadth ——— Not recorded
exploratory

Open an expression to inspect its rules and request confirmation. The request must be submitted by a trusted repository collaborator.

nhnl-breadth.sma50.threshold0.hold20
variant id

nhnl-breadth.sma50.threshold0.hold20

family id

nhnl-breadth

parameters
threshold

0

holding period

20

created by

source_baseline

reason tested

zero-line of SMA50 net highs

status

exploratory

tags
  • useful_as_filter

  • redundant

Interactive lab

Interactive history unavailable

Loading available evidence…

Research record

Source claims, inferred rules, experiments and the evidence behind the assessment.

Source
kind

breadth

prior experiments
  • qm-4bx.16

What the source claims
  • Net new highs (HIGN-LOWN) smoothed with SMA50.

  • Sign of the smooth as risk-on.

Rules actually disclosed
  • Net new highs (HIGN-LOWN) smoothed with SMA50.

What had to be inferred
  • Sign of the smooth as risk-on.

Research questions
  • Does SMA50 of new-highs minus new-lows predict risk-on/off or only describe it?

Data
inputs
  • INDEX:HIGN

  • INDEX:LOWN

  • SPY

Baseline implementation
variant id

nhnl-breadth.sma50.threshold0.hold20

family id

nhnl-breadth

parameters
threshold

0

holding period

20

created by

source_baseline

reason tested

zero-line of SMA50 net highs

status

exploratory

metrics
label

exploratory

tags
  • useful_as_filter

  • redundant

What to try interactively
  • name

    threshold

    type

    float

    default

    0

Suggested next research
  • Compare to S5FI as filter rather than standalone.

Trial ledger
  • iteration number

    1

    objective

    initial source exploration

Next questions

Review status

awaiting research feedback. Research publication does not imply official admission.

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