RecessionAlert Bitcoin: contextual model suite, no playable series
Insufficient evidence 1361 · 2026-08-29
Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > Bitcoin | RecessionAlert' be reproduced as a playable, causally timed Other-indicators signal from the checked-in snapshot without inventing undisclosed inputs?
The checked-in page is a source-bound Bitcoin multi-model context suite rather than one executable signal. It discloses daily BOCA-3 and BOCA-4 address-accumulation cues, falling exchange balances as bullish context, a 30-minute technical overlay, Mayer Multiple thresholds (MM=1 bounce called BUY, MM<0.6 cyclical BUY zone, MM>2.4 overbought, MM>3.6 near a cyclical top), a Puell Multiple ratio, Power Law regressions, and a daily BTC/USD correction-rally probability model. The page explicitly says not to use that probability model as an actionable signal. The selected page body is SHA-verified at sha256:48ab3995ad8abafa4060fa4a72dd658607ddd205dd28dc1e040abe7ab38b2139, fetched 2026-08-22T23:39:03Z, with five same-URL crawl vintages. Four adjacent hashed workbooks are attached to a separate Excel Data page but are not source-linked to this Bitcoin row. No source-linked numeric component series, verifiable native observation span, publication lag, common state machine, or portfolio execution map can be reconstructed without inventing source details. The result is an insufficient-evidence public gap report with no playable registry change.
Provenance
finding · artifact · code · payload · notebook analysis
Returns vs S&P
Aligned window, both rebased to 1.0 at start — No comparable equity curve was supplied; the chart is retained for consistent detail-page navigation. · S&P dashed, experiment solid. X = Date, Y = Equity (rebased to 1.0).
Signal driver & thresholds (x-aligned)
What the offline snapshot proves
| evidence | status | detail |
|---|---|---|
| Canonical page body | SHA-verified | 116,181 bytes; HTTP 200; fetched 2026-08-22; sha256:48ab3995ad8abafa4060fa4a72dd658607ddd205dd28dc1e040abe7ab38b2139 |
| BOCA-3 and BOCA-4 | Contextual accumulation models | Daily address-group cues; desired rally backdrop is growing holder balances with declining exchange balances |
| Mayer Multiple | Thresholds disclosed | MM=1 bounce BUY; MM<0.6 cyclical BUY zone; MM>2.4 overbought; MM>3.6 near cyclical top |
| Technical overlay | Cadence disclosed | Updated every 30 minutes; SuperTrend, Donchian, Parabolic SAR, Aroon, and ZIG/ZAG |
| Probability model | Context only | Daily OHLC correction/rally comparison; claimed 242 short-term and 87 medium-term events since 2010; source says not actionable |
| Native data | Unavailable | No source-linked numeric Bitcoin series; four adjacent workbooks are not linked to this row |
| Publication lag | Unknown | Daily/30-minute cadence claims lack calculation cutoff, release timestamp, timezone, vintage, and revision calendar |
| Causal execution | Fail closed | Unknown values remain unavailable; any future overlay needs point-in-time inputs and an available-bar lag; same-close unsupported |
| Registry action | Not registered | Insufficient evidence; no current value, playable series, allocation, or common state machine |
Stats
| CAGR | 0.00% | Sharpe | 0.00% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sortino | 0.00% | maxDD | 0.00% |
Disposition
insufficient_evidence — publish the disclosed contextual Bitcoin rules, explicit Mayer thresholds, claimed cadences/history, provenance, causal policy, and gap report only; do not register a playable signal or substitute adjacent workbooks.
Follow-on work
- Obtain authorized Bitcoin component vintages
Errors & data gaps
No source-linked machine-readable daily or 30-minute Bitcoin component series is attached to the target row. The four adjacent XLSX captures are attached to a separate Excel Data page and no native workbook/sheet/column mapping is proven. The apparent 100–1,000 BTC ownership band between Fish and Whale definitions is not disclosed. BOCA-3/4 formulas, categorization, aggregation, and color-state thresholds are incomplete. Technical parameters and precedence for SuperTrend, Donchian, Parabolic SAR, Aroon, and ZIG/ZAG are undisclosed. Mayer/Puell input definitions, moving-average initialization, warm-up, timestamps, and revisions are undisclosed. The probability event database, inclusion rules, calculations, out-of-sample boundary, and revision policy are undisclosed. Daily and 30-minute publication lag, information cutoff, timezone, vintage, and release clock are unknown. No common state machine, persistence, confirmation, hysteresis, unavailable transition, or aggregation precedence is disclosed. No target instrument, allocation, holding period, costs, fills, exit, re-entry, or cash rule is disclosed. The source explicitly says not to use the probability model as an actionable signal. No performance, subperiod, false-signal, or market-outcome metric is claimed because the target series is absent. Raw cached HTML, chart/media bytes, workbook bytes, nonce-bearing URLs, credentials, and private account data are not redistributed. No proxy, synthetic extension, chart OCR, unrelated workbook merge, third-party acquisition, or live refresh is authorized for this replication. Any future playable overlay requires an authorized source refresh that supplies source-linked observations, timing, and executable semantics.
Follow-up
gh issue create --title "Follow-up RecessionAlert Bitcoin contextual model suite no playable se" --body "Follow-up to 1361: Can the distinct RecessionAlert inventory row 'CHARTS > Bitcoin | RecessionAlert" --label "priority:p2" --label "pipeline:research" --label "agent:ready"