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        0.09956607283270569,
        0.09925462434114807,
        0.09894325670987802,
        0.09863196991981016,
        0.09832076395186773,
        0.09800963878697355,
        0.09769859440605422,
        0.09738763079004631,
        0.09707674791988152,
        0.09676594577650488,
        0.09645522434085874,
        0.09614458359389055,
        0.09583402351655579,
        0.09552354408980968,
        0.095213145294611,
        0.09490282711192899,
        0.09459258952272775,
        0.09428243250798429
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        0.9680945314557468,
        0.9645577790135964,
        0.9507887424101997,
        0.929095099394475,
        0.8685182056632265,
        0.7779522606171652,
        0.6884935243098536,
        0.5410452294982157
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        0.967738254083926,
        0.9631404759091305,
        0.9452407283247148,
        0.9170389924042727,
        0.8382890305536497,
        0.7205533019937699,
        0.6042569447942648,
        0.4125741615391356
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        0.9684508088275675,
        0.9659750821180623,
        0.9563367564956846,
        0.9411512063846773,
        0.8987473807728033,
        0.8353512192405604,
        0.7727301038254423,
        0.6695162974572957
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.010200576446078113,
        0.009893386427695135,
        -0.013117646763004354,
        -0.00463616923006544,
        -0.023772562834849482,
        0.011874688759677616,
        0.005248599837980585
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/virag-momentum-based-balancing.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/virag-momentum-based-balancing.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Virag's Momentum Based Balancing receives a research grade of F (composite 47 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.471, excess -0.11% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 40%; over 24.0 months is 45%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "22% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 45% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.75. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.56; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.86. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.133%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 44% of classified months (5.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy -3.2% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy -14.6% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -3.9% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -23.3% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 10.17% / Sharpe 0.97 / max DD -23.8% over 426 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 53.960396039603964,
    "sharpe": 34.15841584158416,
    "score": 57.42574257425743
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}