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      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.1898207943451313,
        1.185427369153768,
        1.1683281052953658,
        1.141403192026616,
        1.066316272271775,
        0.9543076688342829,
        0.8439347896235866,
        0.6625097730241601
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.189378184486046,
        1.1836667317372738,
        1.161437688721351,
        1.1264353014719763,
        1.028822305790683,
        0.8832111213219431,
        0.739726378348038,
        0.5038738567687836
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.1902634042042166,
        1.1871880065702622,
        1.1752185218693807,
        1.1563710825812559,
        1.103810238752867,
        1.0254042163466226,
        0.9481432008991352,
        0.8211456892795367
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.008088730912302645,
        0.004956677344599903,
        -0.002542939073635875,
        0.006597263676255249,
        0.006705087501815569,
        0.007199378805881186,
        0.006023670150915286
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/varadi-percentile-channels.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/varadi-percentile-channels.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Varadi's Percentile Channels receives a research grade of F (composite 42 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.103, excess -0.30% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 30%; over 24.0 months is 26%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "16% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 54% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.40. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.72; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.98. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 1.115%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 25.0% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 7.0% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -6.1% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy 0.4% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 7.48% / Sharpe 1.19 / max DD -12.8% over 672 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 18.316831683168317,
    "sharpe": 82.17821782178218,
    "score": 32.67326732673267
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}