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        0.8743302005910425,
        0.8660073800129586,
        0.8576845594348746
      ],
      "cagr": [
        0.06422825323521919,
        0.06369283175266904,
        0.06315765720029631,
        0.06262272947457137,
        0.06208804847200122,
        0.0615536140891344,
        0.061019426222559625,
        0.06048548476890381,
        0.05995178962482939,
        0.05941834068704188,
        0.05888513785228544,
        0.058352181017343074,
        0.05781947007903332,
        0.05728700493421712,
        0.056754785479794734,
        0.05622281161270526,
        0.055691083229922445,
        0.055159600228463335,
        0.05462836250538339,
        0.05409736995777714,
        0.05356662248277466,
        0.05303611997754776,
        0.05250586233930754,
        0.05197584946530376,
        0.051446081252821685
      ]
    },
    "noise": {
      "labels": [
        "0.05",
        "0.1",
        "0.2",
        "0.3",
        "0.5",
        "0.75",
        "1.0",
        "1.5"
      ],
      "median_sharpe": [
        1.0561111505461132,
        1.0521773550299003,
        1.0368705952801986,
        1.012779711304852,
        0.9456679355299509,
        0.8457393988100833,
        0.747464168374999,
        0.5862827495902029
      ],
      "p10_sharpe": [
        1.055714819717281,
        1.0506008855462041,
        1.030702097871592,
        0.9993839487036414,
        0.9121386401962699,
        0.7822315424604421,
        0.6544737428948325,
        0.4449378984745975
      ],
      "p90_sharpe": [
        1.0565074813749453,
        1.0537538245135964,
        1.0430390926888053,
        1.0261754739060625,
        0.9791972308636319,
        0.9092472551597245,
        0.8404545938551654,
        0.7276276007058082
      ]
    },
    "regimes": {
      "labels": [
        "Strong bull",
        "Bull",
        "Sideways",
        "Bear",
        "Strong bear",
        "Volatility up",
        "Volatility down"
      ],
      "strategy": [
        0.005852116936744135,
        0.0040140177182092195,
        0.0016953002986426066,
        0.0018756640341687628,
        -0.004847694482782661,
        0.007631258367354567,
        0.003598880745997258
      ],
      "spy": [
        0.017424615282435912,
        0.008305375388603134,
        -0.023244102547507927,
        -0.018370732806505304,
        -0.07467284781452077,
        0.019801456311220798,
        -0.0064377281142873445
      ]
    }
  },
  "tools": [
    {
      "id": "strategy_report",
      "title": "Strategy report",
      "href": "../strategies/varadi-percentile-channels-daily.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Equity, allocations, and replication metrics."
    },
    {
      "id": "quantstats",
      "title": "QuantStats tearsheet",
      "href": "../tearsheets/strategies/varadi-percentile-channels-daily.html",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "Full QuantStats HTML from the same monthly ours path."
    },
    {
      "id": "paper_to_profit",
      "title": "Paper to Profit robustness",
      "href": "https://papertoprofit.substack.com/t/tutorials",
      "status": "ok",
      "note": "t-test vs zero and SPY, overlapping-block bootstrap, rolling OLS alpha decay, 70/30 stability, extra-bps cost grid, return-space noise, and seven SPY regimes. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on this catalog snapshot."
    }
  ],
  "writeup": {
    "verdict": "Varadi Percentile Channels - Daily receives a research grade of F (composite 39 / 100) on Paper-to-Profit robustness tests run against published monthly ours versus SPY. On these tests the published path does not currently support a constructive allocation case.",
    "edge": "The path makes money vs zero (p=0.000) but is not a significant edge versus SPY (p=0.021, excess -0.44% per month). Same failure mode as a strategy that only rides beta.",
    "bootstrap": "Block bootstrap of consecutive months (400 paths): P(beat SPY) over 6.0 months is 29%; over 24.0 months is 25%. This is the Paper-to-Profit 'realistic path' test, not a reshuffled iid sample.",
    "persistence": "14% of 12-month OLS windows have a significantly positive slope and 58% are significantly negative. Terminal strategy/SPY wealth ratio is 0.24. A steadily rising log-relative-wealth line is the decay test from the tutorial; a late collapse is a warning.",
    "stability": "70/30 OOS/IS Sharpe ratio is 0.67; second/first-half Sharpe ratio is 0.80. Walk-forward parameter search is not estimable on a frozen catalog snapshot; this split is the overfit proxy. Return-space noise did not halve Sharpe on the tested grid.",
    "cost": "Average daily turnover is 2.007%. Additional one-way costs through 24 bps did not cut Sharpe in half. That is the tutorial's cost-robust case.",
    "regimes": "The path beats SPY in 19% of classified months (4.0/7.0 regimes). In bear/strong-bear/vol-down months it beats SPY 100% of the time. Crisis windows: Dot-com bust: strategy 17.6% vs SPY -38.4%; Global Financial Crisis: strategy 1.5% vs SPY -46.0%; COVID crash: strategy -3.8% vs SPY -19.4%; 2022 inflation shock: strategy -1.1% vs SPY -23.9%.",
    "headline": "Published CAGR 6.42% / Sharpe 1.06 / max DD -12.8% over 672 months. Those headline stats are context only; the grade is the robustness tests above.",
    "limitations": "Tests use published monthly ours, already lagged one bar in the engine, versus SPY. t-tests assume roughly comparable monthly means; Wilcoxon is shown as a non-normal check. Bootstrap paths are overlapping consecutive months (not iid reshuffles). Noise is added to monthly returns, not to OHLC, because this producer does not rerun backtests. Walk-forward parameter optimization, SPA, and PBO are not estimable without a trial ledger. Fee drag is extra one-way bps on catalog average daily turnover, on top of the published costed path."
  },
  "ranks": {
    "cagr": 8.415841584158416,
    "sharpe": 50.0,
    "score": 17.821782178217823
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-09-22T18:23:05Z"
}